- The trend backdrop is active with a 10-week active streak.
- Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
8604
JPX
Week ended 07 Aug 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Nomura Holdings, Inc. · Financial Services · Capital Markets
Latest close
1,562 JPY
2.8%
latest week
Weekly setup
Constructive, but selective
The weekly trend is active. Price is 14.6% above the Trend Line and sits at 88.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 2.8%, after a 1.2% four-week move. The latest news-sentiment score is 59/100.
Setup score
72
out of 100
Latest Close
1,562 JPY
7 Aug 2026
1W Return
2.8%
latest completed week
4W Return
1.2%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
22.7%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
96.2%
50 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
1.3x
vs 13-week average
- 4 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
- Price is close to its 52-week high; watch for continuation or exhaustion.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
2.8%
Latest completed week; four-week move 1.2%.
Indicator stack
88/76
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Positive 55.95%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
News sentiment
59/100
14 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is active. Price is 14.6% above the Trend Line and sits at 88.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 2.8%, after a 1.2% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 1.3x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.7112-week average 0.51
12-week confirmation
Trend active10/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure7/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership4/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.71Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers44 reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. 4 reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 1.2% over four weeks, 22.7% over 12 weeks, and 59.1% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 10 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak10 weeks
Active weeks in one year50
Trend breadth96.2%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure1.19Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change52.6%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership3.91Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change360.0%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
A published fundamentals and factor snapshot is not available for this company.
No published fundamental snapshot is available for this company.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment59/100
Weighted news tone is positive across 14 relevant articles.
6 positive · 7 neutral · 1 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-4.5%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility2.9%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
13 Feb
13 Mar
10 Apr
8 May
5 Jun
3 Jul
7 Aug
Weeks higher18 of 268 weeks finished lower.
Best week+5.9%Week of 5 Jun.
Worst week-14.2%Week of 6 Mar.
Latest week+2.8%Week of 7 Aug.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains4
Modest gains14
Flat weeks0
Modest losses4
Sharp losses4
Recent vol2.9%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol4.1%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split32/20Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew3.5% / -3.1%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorJP Financial Services
4-week rank77 / 100
Group average4.5%
Trend breadth80.0%
Trend80.0%active weekly trend signals
MD87.0%positive activity pressure
RS74.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryJP Capital Markets
4-week rank18 / 31
Group average1.9%
Trend breadth54.8%
Trend54.8%active weekly trend signals
MD71.0%positive activity pressure
RS38.7%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape73/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 73/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis53/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 10/12, activity pressure 7/12, relative leadership 4/12.
Activity pressure 0.71; 4 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 55.95%Next-week expectancy is positive with a 55.95% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors50/100No published factor snapshot is available yet.
Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Sentiment59/100Weighted news tone is positive across 14 relevant articles.
Nomura posts strong quarterly profit as US GAAP review confirms results Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | 1,562 JPY | 2.8% | 1,363 JPY | 926.2 JPY | 1.19 | 3.91 | 48.1M | On |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 1,520 JPY | -5.0% | 1,357 JPY | 919.2 JPY | 1.24 | 3.10 | 73.0M | On |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 1,600 JPY | 5.3% | 1,348 JPY | 912.5 JPY | 1.14 | 8.10 | 39.8M | On |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 1,520 JPY | -1.5% | 1,338 JPY | 905.5 JPY | 0.97 | 3.60 | 57.7M | On |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 1,543 JPY | 4.9% | 1,329 JPY | 898.8 JPY | 0.78 | -1.50 | 54.3M | On |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 1,472 JPY | 3.4% | 1,320 JPY | 892.0 JPY | 0.47 | -7.69 | 7.9M | On |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 1,424 JPY | 1.1% | 1,310 JPY | 885.6 JPY | 0.22 | -10.31 | 10.8M | On |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 1,408 JPY | 3.2% | 1,301 JPY | 879.6 JPY | -0.02 | -13.75 | 12.4M | On |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 1,364 JPY | 0.3% | 1,291 JPY | 873.6 JPY | -0.34 | -10.02 | 9.8M | On |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 1,361 JPY | 5.9% | 1,283 JPY | 868.0 JPY | -0.57 | -11.14 | 11.8M | On |
| 29 May 2026 | 1,285 JPY | -0.2% | 1,273 JPY | 862.1 JPY | -0.78 | -15.93 | 63.3M | Off |
| 22 May 2026 | 1,287 JPY | 1.1% | 1,266 JPY | 856.7 JPY | -0.85 | -12.05 | 42.0M | Off |
| 15 May 2026 | 1,273 JPY | 3.6% | 1,258 JPY | 851.2 JPY | -0.88 | -10.40 | 47.0M | On |
| 8 May 2026 | 1,228 JPY | 0.7% | 1,249 JPY | 845.8 JPY | -0.84 | -15.44 | 36.8M | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.