Canada completed market record

Market Dynamics strategy report

This report compares Market Dynamics with completed price outcomes through positioning, confirmation, participation, warning and exit.

Cycle resultsStrategy sequencePublic results

Canada equities completed cycle record

Accumulation and distribution outcomes

These figures compare each completed accumulation-to-distribution cycle and each completed distribution-to-accumulation cycle. Open cycles remain separate.

Accumulation to distribution93.7%finished higher across 319 completed cycles
Distribution to accumulation75.4%finished lower across 378 completed cycles

The figures change with the selected universe. This report contains Canada instruments only.

Report coverage

Canada equities and ETFs

Accumulation and distribution can recur at different price levels. Long positioning and downside outcomes are measured separately. Results from other countries are excluded.

Strategy application

How Market Dynamics is used with price

Market Dynamics shows the condition beneath price. Price confirms the move. Completed outcomes show how that sequence performed.

Long positioning

Accumulation identifies where a long setup begins

Across completed Canada equities cycles, 93.7% finished higher before distribution completed the cycle. Use accumulation to prepare a possible long position, then require price confirmation before committing more capital.

93.3% of later completed cycles also finished higher.
Downside positioning

Distribution identifies where downside risk is rising

75.4% of completed distribution cycles finished lower. The average rise before reversal was 136.1%. Distribution is therefore used first to review exposure and protect gains. A short still requires price weakness and defined risk.

100.0% of later completed cycles also finished lower.
01
PrepareUse accumulation or improving Market Dynamics to identify a possible long setup.
02
ConfirmDemand a price response before treating the underlying condition as an entry.
03
ParticipateStay with a supported move while price and Market Dynamics continue to reinforce it.
04
ProtectUse distribution or unsupported extension to review exposure; act when price confirms the warning.

Positioning outcomes

Outcomes after accumulation and distribution

Each cycle begins when an outer zone first appears and ends only when the opposing zone is reached. The zones move with the developing market relationship; they are not fixed prices. A long stay is one case, not a new result every week.

Long positioning

Accumulation to distribution

93.7%finished higher95% range 90.5–95.9%

This measures whether price finished higher between each distinct accumulation cycle and the subsequent distribution cycle.

Completed cycles319 Still in progress167 Average gross long reward68.5% Median gross long reward57.2% Average best advance73.8% Average adverse move24.7% Gross reward / adverse move2.77 Average time before leaving accumulation9.5 weeks Average time to best advance68.6 weeks Average cycle duration94.4 weeks
Repeat-cycle testDid it work again at later price levels?
Instruments with repeat cycles28Later completed cycles30Later cycles higher93.3%Average later reward75.7%
Advance reachedAll cycles to dateAverage timeMedian time
+5%88.5%95% 85.3–91.0%12.4 weeks4.0 weeks
+10%85.2%95% 81.8–88.1%17.7 weeks7.0 weeks
+20%76.3%95% 72.4–79.9%29.2 weeks16.0 weeks
+30%67.1%95% 62.8–71.1%36.8 weeks25.0 weeks
Practical application

Accumulation has been most useful as a patient long-positioning window

85.2% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 7 weeks); 76.3% reached 20% (median 16 weeks).

  • Use accumulation to prepare a long case, then require price confirmation before increasing conviction. The condition is a positioning context rather than a stand-alone instruction to buy.
  • The condition lasted 9.5 weeks on average before price left accumulation, while the best advance in completed cycles occurred after 68.6 weeks on average.
  • Later completed cycles resolved higher 93.3% of the time across 30 repeat cycles.
  • Completed cycles experienced an average adverse move of 24.7% before resolution. Position size and confirmation still matter.
Downside and short positioning

Distribution to accumulation

75.4%finished lower95% range 70.8–79.5%

This asks how often distribution became a completed downside reversal, how far price fell and how long the move took before accumulation returned.

Completed cycles378 Still in progress493 Average gross short opportunity8.6% Median gross short opportunity26.2% Average deepest reversal30.3% Average rise before reversal136.1% Gross reward / adverse move0.06 Average time before leaving distribution6.3 weeks Average time to deepest reversal70.2 weeks Average cycle duration126.4 weeks
Repeat-cycle testDid it work again at later price levels?
Instruments with repeat cycles21Later completed cycles22Later cycles lower100.0%Average later opportunity40.9%
Price reversal reachedAll cycles to dateAverage timeMedian time
−5%72.8%95% 69.7–75.6%20.5 weeks5.0 weeks
−10%59.7%95% 56.4–62.9%27.5 weeks10.0 weeks
−20%40.8%95% 37.5–44.1%38.0 weeks21.0 weeks
−30%28.1%95% 25.2–31.2%49.9 weeks40.0 weeks
Practical application

Distribution has been a downside warning before it has been a short entry

59.7% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 10 weeks); 40.8% reached 20% (median 21 weeks).

  • Use distribution first to review long exposure, protect gains and watch for downward confirmation. A short case needs price weakness and defined risk; distribution alone is not enough.
  • Price left distribution after 6.3 weeks on average, but the deepest reversal in completed cycles occurred after 70.2 weeks on average.
  • Later completed cycles resolved lower 100.0% of the time across 22 repeat cycles.
  • Price rose by 136.1% on average before completed downside cycles resolved. That adverse path makes unconfirmed or unbounded short positioning unsuitable.

Move-size rates include every cycle observed to date; an open cycle that has not yet reached a move is retained in the denominator. Finished-higher and finished-lower rates use completed cycles only, with open cycles shown separately. Distribution measures gross historical downside opportunity, not a realised short strategy: borrow availability, financing, dividends, spread, slippage, exits and risk controls are not included.

Strategy sequence

Market Dynamics and price through a complete position

Market Dynamics is not a one-week forecast. It is a changing record of whether underlying market behaviour supports price. Each phase below is counted once from its first observation until the relationship changes.

01Underlying conditionMarket Dynamics improves before price fully responds.Watch
02ConfirmationPrice responds while the underlying support remains positive.Enter or add selectively
03Supported advancePrice and Market Dynamics reinforce the same upward case.Hold
04Unsupported extensionPrice advances while Market Dynamics no longer confirms it.Review risk
05Confirmed weaknessPrice weakness and Market Dynamics point in the same direction.Protect capital
06RepairMarket Dynamics improves again and a new confirmation can form.Reassess
Underlying condition

Read condition before direction

Market Dynamics can improve while price is still weak, or deteriorate while price is still rising. The difference shows whether the visible price move has underlying support.

Confirmation

Let price decide when the case becomes actionable

A supportive underlying condition is preparation. A price response turns it into participation. This avoids treating every positive or negative reading as an immediate trade.

Management

Stay patient while support remains; reassess when it separates

Agreement supports patience. Divergence is a prompt to review conviction, position size and risk. The next price response determines whether the gap repairs or resolves through reversal.

Unsupported extensionTighten confirmation and risk checks

Price running ahead of Market Dynamics

Completed phases15882 Average duration2.6 weeks Average price move+0.8% Finished lower56.7%
Most common next state: Confirmed weakness · 59.2%
Early foundationWatch for price confirmation

Foundation improving before price

Completed phases15740 Average duration2.5 weeks Average price move+0.9% Finished higher57.0%
Most common next state: Supported advance · 59.6%
Confirmed weaknessRemain defensive until repair appears

Price weakness confirmed by Market Dynamics

Completed phases16173 Average duration3.7 weeks Average price move+2.2% Finished lower29.7%
Most common next state: Unsupported extension · 92.4%
Supported advanceHold while support remains intact

Price advance supported by Market Dynamics

Completed phases16391 Average duration4.6 weeks Average price move+2.5% Finished higher36.1%
Most common next state: Early foundation · 91.2%

These are completed relationship phases, not repeated weekly observations. "Unsupported" means price was ahead of the measured Market Dynamics support; it does not claim that price was manipulated.

Research limits

What is included and excluded

The report includes completed positioning cycles, losses and unresolved cases alongside successful outcomes.

Point in time

Every comparison uses only the completed information available on that date. Later observations do not rewrite an earlier state.

Recurring cycles

A multi-week stay is one case. After the opposing condition is reached, a later accumulation or distribution begins a new cycle at the market level then in force.

Open cases

A current positioning cycle remains open until the opposing zone is reached. It does not count as a completed success.

Country control

The Canada result contains Canada instruments only. Other countries are published as separate studies.

Implementation costs

Positioning outcomes are gross historical moves. They exclude costs, spreads, slippage and tax. Downside results also exclude borrow and financing costs.

Research boundary

Only outcomes and validation results are public. The construction of Market Dynamics remains proprietary.

Historical evidence cannot guarantee future performance or establish causality. Survivorship, listing history, changing market regimes, execution costs and data revisions can affect real-world results. The verdict changes only when completed outcomes change the record.

Evidence context