Daily report ยท Tuesday, 6 October 2026
RBOB Gasoline daily reportPrices, trader positions and supply
Watching for improvement. Some readings are improving. Price still needs to confirm an upward trend.
Price direction and market pressure
Price and trend
Shows completed price separately from Weekly Market Dynamics so support and weakness are easy to see.Daily close with a state-coloured Trend and the slower Fair Value reference. The final shaded band isolates this week's completed sessions.
Speed and support
Daily momentum and Weekly Market Dynamics
Momentum shows speed. Weekly Market Dynamics shows support beneath price. Agreement is the stronger read.
Week ending 2 Oct 2026 ยท 0.270
Daily Market Dynamics: -0.444 ยท 5 Oct 2026. This shorter-term reading is separate from the weekly verdict.
Relative leadership
Is this commodity leading?
Above zero means RBOB Gasoline is outperforming the broad commodity benchmark. Below zero means it is lagging.
Participation
Did volume expand with the move?
Return bars show direction. The blue line compares reported volume with its recent normal level.
Weekly context
Does the slower structure agree?
One completed observation per week reduces daily noise and shows whether the current move fits the broader path.
Price has not confirmed an upward Trend Signal
The completed close is -3.3% from the Trend Line. The 20-session path is +1.0%.
Underlying pressure is supportive
Weekly Market Dynamics is +0.27 and changed -0.02 from the previous weekly reading.
RBOB Gasoline watchlist
Watching for improvement
Current position, the evidence behind it, the confirmation required and the point at which the idea no longer fits.Current position
Watching for improvement
Some readings are improving. Price still needs to confirm an upward trend.
The latest completed close is 3.25 USD per gallon. The Trend Signal is inactive, Relative Strength is +9.6. Weekly Market Dynamics is +0.270 for the week ending 02 Oct 2026. This week is -2.0% through 1 completed session; across 20 sessions, price changed +1.0%.
Setup guide
Watching for improvement
Some readings are improving. Price still needs to confirm an upward trend.
- What would confirm it?
- A completed Trend Signal above the current Trend Line near 3.36 USD per gallon, backed by positive weekly Market Dynamics.
- What would make it wrong?
- Renewed price weakness with weekly Market Dynamics and relative strength both below zero.
- How should risk be treated?
- Volatility ranks at percentile 88 of its three-year history. Treat any setup as high-temperature and scale risk accordingly.
No clear positioning advantage
Price and weekly Market Dynamics remain the active decision frame.
Ranked 3 of 5 in Energy
The market's 20-session move is +1.0% versus +1.6% for its group.
Heating oil / ULSD is the clearest current confirmation market
The 52-week return correlation is +0.82. A matching move adds context; a divergence may indicate a relative-value move rather than a broad group signal. The strongest retained macro link is Crude oil at +0.64, but it remains descriptive and can change.
Price has fallen for a second week.
Price is -2.00% across 1 completed session this week. The previous completed week returned -2.39%. The market is -1.25 percentage points versus its group this week.
What supports the move?
Green supports the current price path. Red works against it. Amber is not yet clear.
Close, Trend and Fair Value
This compact map shows direction and longer-run extension without replacing the full chart.
What would strengthen the view
A completed Trend Signal activation, accompanied by positive weekly Market Dynamics, is the clearest repair confirmation.
What would weaken the view
The developing repair would fail if weekly Market Dynamics turns back below zero while relative strength also weakens.
Timing and risk
Volatility is at percentile 88 of its three-year history, so entry timing and position size carry unusual importance.
Confirmation would favour trend continuation or a completed repair rather than an anticipatory entry.
The market stays on watch; patience preserves the edge because there is no need to force a direction.
The setup weakens and the defensive interpretation takes priority until a new completed repair develops.
Technical indicators ยท closing prices
Structure, momentum, volatility and participation
Mixed structure. Momentum is negative, the latest impulse is negative or fading, and directional evidence describes a range-led market.Historically adverse
Week 41 ยท median pressure -2.00% across the available history.
26 Feb - 24 Mar
Median four-week pressure 20.89% with 83% directional agreement.
15 Jul - 11 Aug
Median four-week pressure -8.11% with 67% directional agreement.
Seasonal pressure
Recurring weekly strength and weakness
Median completed-week pressure with directional agreement across the available cycles.
Past peaks and troughs
Typical peak and trough profiles
The charts compare prices before and after past peaks and troughs.
Price and trend
Price, trend and range
Price alongside its fast and slow trends. The outer bands show the recent trading range.
Momentum
RSI and stochastic
Two measures of momentum show whether recent price moves are strengthening or fading.
Impulse
MACD
MACD compares faster and slower trends. Crossings of the signal line show changes in momentum.
Volatility
How much prices are moving
The daily trading range and band width show whether price swings are getting larger.
Market participation
Volume and price direction
Volume is compared with its recent history. Cumulative balance adds volume on up days and subtracts it on down days.
Trend quality
Directional movement and ADX
Directional movement separates upward and downward pressure; ADX measures trend strength without assigning direction.
Commitments of Traders
Who holds the positions?
Read the size, the change and the price response together.
A dated COT history is not available for this market. Price and the other research sections remain available.
Scarcity, carry and physical balance
Supply and futures prices
Shows the futures curve and published supply balance on their own release dates.Futures curve
No comparable curve for this edition
No comparable multi-expiry curve is available. Use price, physical balance and risk instead.
World physical balance
No comparable balance for this edition
A validated published balance is not available, so no proxy inventory estimate is substituted. Price, curve and risk evidence remain active.
Risk path
Returns, price declines and volatility
Relative value and relationships
Relative performance
Ratios and correlations are descriptive completed-week relationships. They can change and do not establish causality.Heating oil / ULSD is the clearest current confirmation market
The 52-week return correlation is +0.82. A matching move adds context; a divergence may indicate a relative-value move rather than a broad group signal. The strongest retained macro link is Crude oil at +0.64, but it remains descriptive and can change.
Use related markets to confirm or challenge the thesis; do not use correlation alone as the entry trigger.3-2-1 crack proxy
64.65 ยท historical percentile 96A standardized conversion proxy, before refinery costs, yields, location and timing. High in its three-year range.
Gasoline crack proxy
48.01 ยท historical percentile 89An indicative product-minus-crude conversion spread; it excludes refinery costs and location effects. High in its three-year range.
Energy rotation
Twenty completed sessions show whether RBOB Gasoline is leading or lagging its closest commodity peers.
Closest market relationships
Related markets and funds
Related markets and funds
Funds introduce fees, holdings and roll effects. Relationships describe observed co-movement rather than a guaranteed transmission path.Commodity funds and producers
No direct listed-fund mapping is retained for this commodity.
Timing and market relationships
Sources and notes and boundaries
Source dates
latest closed exchange session
same completed weekly reading as the commodity chart
820 completed sessions
risk, ratios and relationship histories
CFTC report positions
validated delivery structure
published balance period
How to read this brief
Price shows direction. Weekly Market Dynamics, relative strength and technical structure show whether the move has support. Positioning, the futures curve and supply data add market-specific context. Where the readings differ, the report says what to watch next.
Data boundaries
Continuous futures can be affected by contract rolls. COT data is delayed and classified. Physical balances follow release calendars. Listed funds carry fees and tracking differences. Correlations and seasonal patterns can change.
Research use
This report presents market data for research and education. It does not account for personal objectives, leverage, liquidity, taxes or execution and is not financial advice.
Internal repair is leading price
Mixed structure. The opportunity is a future confirmation, not an assumption: wait for a completed Trend Signal.
Momentum is negative
The current reading is 44.1; the latest impulse is negative or fading. Acceleration supports follow-through; rollover warns that price is losing urgency.
Range-led market
Directional strength is 15.8. A range-led market favours confirmation and patience; a stronger directional read makes breakouts more dependable.
Volatility 4.7% ยท participation 111%
Volatility is percentile 78 and participation is of typical session volume. Wider movement argues for smaller risk and completed-session confirmation.