Move decomposition
Earnings contribution and valuation offset
The market move is separated into the change in trailing earnings power and the offset from relative valuation.
US Equity · NASDAQ · Earnings Dossier
ALRM earnings intelligence
Alarm.com Holdings IncTechnology · Software - Application · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Delivery and acceptance aligned
Results have usually cleared estimates and the next completed weekly close has, on average, confirmed the delivery.
Evidence95/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
Thursday 5 November 2026
Time unconfirmed · Fiscal period ending 30 Sep 2026
44event risk
Moderate
Countdown22 dayscalendar proximity
EPS estimate0.79 USDprovider consensus
Estimate growth+3.9%versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement4.7%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Earnings power is leading market price; the spread is stable and has persisted through 6 updates. Both series begin at 100, so the gap isolates the relative change in price and trailing earnings power.
Market move0.6%2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09
Earnings move40.9%trailing diluted EPS
Unresolved spread40.3 ptsStable
Current multiple19.9xprice divided by TTM EPS
Relationship pressure52/100Moderate
Model confidence100/100High
Relationship controls
What qualifies the headline spread
Persistent earnings lead
Earnings power has led market price across several updates.
Business quality supportive
Cash generation and operating evidence are broadly supportive.
Beat rate100.0%12 beats in 12 measured quarters
Average surprise+19.6%median 20.7%
Delivery streak1212 consecutive beats
Average response+2.2%12 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation67%same directional sign
Surprise variability10.4 ptspopulation dispersion
Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth-9.0%year on year
Revenue growth8.7%year on year
Average surprise17.5%latest four quarters
SUE2.35standardised surprise
Net margin11.1%trailing basis
Cash conversion2.01xcash flow / net income
P/E23.2xcurrent snapshot
Data completeness100%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close55.65 USDcompleted week
13-week return8.1%price momentum
Fair-value gap-2.0%price versus current fair value
Relative strength-2.3exchange benchmark
Trend signalActiveweekly architecture
Next-week stateUndecided49.6%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / period6 Aug 202630 Jun 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.66 / 0.53USD
Surprise+24.5%Beat
EPS growth+37.5%year on year
Revenue / growth277734000+9.2% · USD
Next close / four weeks+5.1% / +5.0%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period7 May 202631 Mar 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.65 / 0.60USD
Surprise+8.3%Beat
EPS growth+20.4%year on year
Revenue / growth265192999+11.0% · USD
Next close / four weeks+1.0% / -4.3%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period19 Feb 202631 Dec 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.72 / 0.64USD
Surprise+12.5%Beat
EPS growth+24.1%year on year
Revenue / growth261656999- · USD
Next close / four weeks-1.7% / +0.5%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period6 Nov 202530 Sep 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.76 / 0.61USD
Surprise+24.6%Beat
EPS growth+22.6%year on year
Revenue / growth256399999- · USD
Next close / four weeks+1.3% / +5.6%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period7 Aug 202530 Jun 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.48 / 0.39USD
Surprise+23.1%Beat
EPS growth-17.2%year on year
Revenue / growth254308000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+0.7% / +8.5%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period8 May 202531 Mar 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.54 / 0.47USD
Surprise+14.9%Beat
EPS growth+8.0%year on year
Revenue / growth238822000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+2.9% / +5.4%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period20 Feb 202531 Dec 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.58 / 0.53USD
Surprise+8.6%Beat
EPS growth-6.5%year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks-5.4% / -7.1%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period7 Nov 202430 Sep 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.62 / 0.49USD
Surprise+26.5%Beat
EPS growth+10.7%year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+18.9% / +21.9%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period8 Aug 202430 Jun 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.58 / 0.49USD
Surprise+18.4%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks-7.3% / -9.7%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period9 May 202431 Mar 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.50 / 0.49USD
Surprise+2.0%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks-0.5% / -4.2%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period22 Feb 202431 Dec 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.62 / 0.47USD
Surprise+31.9%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+3.0% / +4.9%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period9 Nov 202330 Sep 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.56 / 0.40USD
Surprise+40.0%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+8.1% / +7.9%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.