Move decomposition
Earnings contribution and valuation offset
The market move is separated into the change in trailing earnings power and the offset from relative valuation.
US Equity · NYSE · Earnings Dossier
AU earnings intelligence
AngloGold Ashanti plcBasic Materials · Gold · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Results and price are diverging
The sign of the earnings surprise has often differed from the direction of the next completed weekly close.
Evidence95/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
Tuesday 10 November 2026
Time unconfirmed · Fiscal period ending 30 Sep 2026
61event risk
Elevated
Countdown29 dayscalendar proximity
EPS estimate1.84 USDprovider consensus
Estimate growth+39.4%versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement10.8%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Earnings power is leading market price; the spread is stable and has persisted through 2 updates. Both series begin at 100, so the gap isolates the relative change in price and trailing earnings power.
Market move432.1%2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09
Earnings move543.3%trailing diluted EPS
Unresolved spread111.2 ptsStable
Current multiple12.2xprice divided by TTM EPS
Relationship pressure63/100Moderate
Model confidence84/100High
Relationship controls
What qualifies the headline spread
Model qualification
The earnings move is exceptionally large and should be read with its quality confirmation.
Beat rate8.3%1 beats in 12 measured quarters
Average surprise-7.8%median -3.4%
Delivery streak11 consecutive misses
Average response+7.6%12 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation22%same directional sign
Surprise variability12.1 ptspopulation dispersion
Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth110.9%year on year
Revenue growth54.6%year on year
Average surprise1.3%latest four quarters
SUE-0.46standardised surprise
Net margin32.2%trailing basis
Cash conversion1.11xcash flow / net income
P/E12.5xcurrent snapshot
Data completeness100%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close94.16 USDcompleted week
13-week return14.7%price momentum
Fair-value gap87.1%price versus current fair value
Relative strength-6.3exchange benchmark
Trend signalActiveweekly architecture
Next-week stateUndecided54.5%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / period31 Jul 202630 Jun 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.98 / 2.04USD
Surprise-2.9%Miss
EPS growth+58.4%year on year
Revenue / growth3104000000+27.0% · USD
Next close / four weeks+20.8% / +53.8%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period8 May 202631 Mar 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.52 / 2.21USD
Surprise+14.0%Beat
EPS growth+186.4%year on year
Revenue / growth3235999999+64.8% · USD
Next close / four weeks-0.6% / +5.6%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period20 Feb 202631 Dec 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.90 / 1.94USD
Surprise-2.1%Miss
EPS growth+113.5%year on year
Revenue / growth3068000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+16.3% / -12.0%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period11 Nov 202530 Sep 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.32 / 1.37USD
Surprise-3.6%Miss
EPS growth+135.7%year on year
Revenue / growth2417000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+14.4% / +20.0%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period1 Aug 202530 Jun 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.25 / 1.29USD
Surprise-3.1%Miss
EPS growth+108.3%year on year
Revenue / growth2445000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+14.5% / +10.5%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period9 May 202531 Mar 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.88 / 0.95USD
Surprise-7.4%Miss
EPS growth+166.7%year on year
Revenue / growth1963000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+1.4% / +9.3%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period19 Feb 202531 Dec 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.89 / 0.99USD
Surprise-10.1%Miss
EPS growth+456.0%year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks-1.7% / +2.3%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period7 Nov 202430 Sep 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.56 / 0.81USD
Surprise-30.9%Miss
EPS growth+69.7%year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+1.4% / -8.6%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period6 Aug 202430 Jun 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.60 / 0.81USD
Surprise-25.9%Miss
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+8.8% / +9.1%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period28 Jun 202431 Mar 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.33 / 0.33USD
Surprise0.0%In-Line
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+20.5% / +17.7%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period23 Feb 202431 Dec 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-0.25 / -0.25USD
Surprise0.0%In-Line
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+12.5% / +28.1%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period9 Nov 202330 Sep 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.33 / 0.42USD
Surprise-21.4%Miss
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks-16.6% / +5.2%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.