Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
US Equity · NASDAQ · Earnings Dossier
MRNA earnings intelligence
Moderna IncHealthcare · Biotechnology · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Results and price are diverging
The sign of the earnings surprise has often differed from the direction of the next completed weekly close.
Evidence95/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
Thursday 5 November 2026
Time unconfirmed · Fiscal period ending 30 Sep 2026
77event risk
High
Countdown23 dayscalendar proximity
EPS estimate-1.10 USDprovider consensus
Estimate growth-115.7%versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement13.2%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Three-year relationship unavailable
Earnings power must be positive through the latest visible week.
Beat rate66.7%8 beats in 12 measured quarters
Average surprise-1.2%median 16.5%
Delivery streak11 consecutive in-line reports
Average response+0.4%12 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation36%same directional sign
Surprise variability122.3 ptspopulation dispersion
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue growth-27.2%year on year
Average surprise8.8%latest four quarters
SUE0.45standardised surprise
Net margin-141.4%trailing basis
Cash conversion0.39xcash flow / net income
P/E-current snapshot
Data completeness79%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close225.00 USDcompleted week
13-week return229.6%price momentum
Fair-value gap244.0%price versus current fair value
Relative strength216.7exchange benchmark
Trend signalActiveweekly architecture
Next-week stateUndecided50.3%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / period31 Jul 202630 Jun 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-1.97 / -1.97USD
Surprise0.0%In-Line
EPS growth+7.5%year on year
Revenue / growth145000000+2.1% · USD
Next close / four weeks+9.4% / +168.4%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period1 May 202631 Mar 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-3.40 / -2.11USD
Surprise-61.1%Miss
EPS growth-34.9%year on year
Revenue / growth389000000+263.6% · USD
Next close / four weeks+7.1% / -7.6%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period13 Feb 202631 Dec 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-2.11 / -2.64USD
Surprise+20.1%Beat
EPS growth+27.5%year on year
Revenue / growth678000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+21.6% / +28.1%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period6 Nov 202530 Sep 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-0.51 / -2.16USD
Surprise+76.4%Beat
EPS growth-1800.0%year on year
Revenue / growth1016000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-9.6% / -4.3%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period1 Aug 202530 Jun 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-2.13 / -3.00USD
Surprise+29.0%Beat
EPS growth+36.0%year on year
Revenue / growth142000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-23.5% / -20.6%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period1 May 202531 Mar 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-2.52 / -3.11USD
Surprise+19.0%Beat
EPS growth+17.9%year on year
Revenue / growth107000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+1.4% / -3.5%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period14 Feb 202531 Dec 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-2.91 / -2.76USD
Surprise-5.4%Miss
EPS growth-629.1%year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+9.0% / +9.2%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period7 Nov 202430 Sep 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.03 / -1.90USD
Surprise+101.6%Beat
EPS growth+100.3%year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks-14.3% / -21.2%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period1 Aug 202430 Jun 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-3.33 / -3.35USD
Surprise+0.6%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks-29.1% / -32.5%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period2 May 202431 Mar 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-3.07 / -3.57USD
Surprise+14.0%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+15.8% / +54.3%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period22 Feb 202431 Dec 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.55 / -0.97USD
Surprise+156.7%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+9.2% / +17.5%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period2 Nov 202330 Sep 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-9.53 / -2.05USD
Surprise-364.9%Miss
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+7.8% / +9.2%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.