ASX · Consumer Cyclical · Weekly analysis

CCVWave & cycle analysis

Cash Converters International Limited

Latest close AUD 0.265 Week ending 9 Oct 2026 History 276 weeks

Current reading

No clear wave pattern yet

There is no leading pattern that meets the wave rules. Use the trend and other readings for context while more swings develop.

91/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Observing Setup status

A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.

How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countHurst crest risk

No wave count meets the rules yet. The chart still shows price, trend and confirmed swings.

Other readingsUse the other readings for context

0 of 7 available readings are positive and 7 are negative. There is no leading wave direction to compare them with.

Main uncertaintyModerate count stability

Wait for a pattern that meets the wave rules. A label should not be forced onto every price move.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values

Prices in AUD · the history displayed on the chart
Week ending	Close	30-week trend	Fair Value
2023-10-20	0.1699	0.1792	0.1718
2023-10-27	0.1741	0.1788	0.1721
2023-11-03	0.1741	0.1782	0.1725
2023-11-10	0.1741	0.1776	0.1728
2023-11-17	0.1741	0.177	0.1731
2023-11-24	0.1658	0.1764	0.1732
2023-12-01	0.1741	0.176	0.1735
2023-12-08	0.1699	0.1756	0.1736
2023-12-15	0.1699	0.1752	0.1737
2023-12-22	0.1699	0.1748	0.1738
2023-12-29	0.1782	0.1747	0.174
2024-01-05	0.1824	0.1747	0.1742
2024-01-12	0.1782	0.1748	0.1744
2024-01-19	0.1824	0.1749	0.1746
2024-01-26	0.1865	0.1752	0.1748
2024-02-02	0.1865	0.1756	0.1749
2024-02-09	0.1824	0.1759	0.1749
2024-02-16	0.1865	0.1763	0.1749
2024-02-23	0.1907	0.1769	0.175
2024-03-01	0.1865	0.1771	0.1752
2024-03-08	0.1907	0.1776	0.1755
2024-03-15	0.1907	0.1782	0.1757
2024-03-22	0.1948	0.1789	0.1759
2024-03-29	0.1947	0.1793	0.1762
2024-04-05	0.186	0.1796	0.1764
2024-04-12	0.1904	0.18	0.1766
2024-04-19	0.1817	0.1802	0.1768
2024-04-26	0.1817	0.1806	0.177
2024-05-03	0.1817	0.1809	0.1773
2024-05-10	0.1774	0.1809	0.1775
2024-05-17	0.1817	0.1813	0.1777
2024-05-24	0.1817	0.1815	0.1779
2024-05-31	0.1774	0.1816	0.1781
2024-06-07	0.1774	0.1817	0.1782
2024-06-14	0.1774	0.1818	0.1783
2024-06-21	0.1731	0.1821	0.1785
2024-06-28	0.1904	0.1826	0.1787
2024-07-05	0.1774	0.1829	0.1789
2024-07-12	0.1601	0.1825	0.179
2024-07-19	0.1644	0.1824	0.179
2024-07-26	0.1817	0.1825	0.179
2024-08-02	0.1904	0.1827	0.179
2024-08-09	0.1817	0.1829	0.1791
2024-08-16	0.1904	0.1831	0.1792
2024-08-23	0.1817	0.183	0.1792
2024-08-30	0.1947	0.1832	0.1793
2024-09-06	0.199	0.1838	0.1794
2024-09-13	0.1901	0.1839	0.1795
2024-09-20	0.2036	0.1843	0.1797
2024-09-27	0.2082	0.1851	0.1799
2024-10-04	0.1991	0.1854	0.18
2024-10-11	0.2036	0.1858	0.1802
2024-10-18	0.2036	0.1861	0.1803
2024-10-25	0.1991	0.1862	0.1803
2024-11-01	0.1991	0.1867	0.1804
2024-11-08	0.1991	0.187	0.1804
2024-11-15	0.2082	0.1878	0.1806
2024-11-22	0.2082	0.1887	0.1808
2024-11-29	0.2127	0.1897	0.181
2024-12-06	0.2172	0.1911	0.1813
2024-12-13	0.2217	0.1924	0.1815
2024-12-20	0.2217	0.1937	0.1818
2024-12-27	0.2263	0.1954	0.182
2025-01-03	0.2263	0.197	0.1823
2025-01-10	0.2217	0.1985	0.1826
2025-01-17	0.2217	0.2001	0.1828
2025-01-24	0.2308	0.2014	0.1832
2025-01-31	0.2263	0.2031	0.1835
2025-02-07	0.2263	0.2053	0.1837
2025-02-14	0.2263	0.2073	0.184
2025-02-21	0.2353	0.2091	0.1844
2025-02-28	0.2353	0.2106	0.1849
2025-03-07	0.2263	0.2121	0.1852
2025-03-14	0.2127	0.2129	0.1855
2025-03-21	0.2263	0.2143	0.1859
2025-03-28	0.2309	0.2155	0.1862
2025-04-04	0.2167	0.2161	0.1864
2025-04-11	0.2214	0.2172	0.1867
2025-04-18	0.2261	0.2179	0.187
2025-04-25	0.2214	0.2184	0.1872
2025-05-02	0.2309	0.2194	0.1876
2025-05-09	0.2309	0.2203	0.188
2025-05-16	0.2356	0.2214	0.1883
2025-05-23	0.245	0.2229	0.1888
2025-05-30	0.2591	0.2249	0.1893
2025-06-06	0.2638	0.2271	0.1899
2025-06-13	0.2591	0.2288	0.1904
2025-06-20	0.2638	0.2306	0.191
2025-06-27	0.2638	0.2324	0.1917
2025-07-04	0.2874	0.2347	0.1924
2025-07-11	0.2874	0.2369	0.1932
2025-07-18	0.3062	0.2397	0.194
2025-07-25	0.2968	0.242	0.1948
2025-08-01	0.3157	0.245	0.1957
2025-08-08	0.3109	0.248	0.1965
2025-08-15	0.3392	0.2519	0.1975
2025-08-22	0.3345	0.2554	0.1986
2025-08-29	0.3204	0.2585	0.1994
2025-09-05	0.3345	0.2621	0.2004
2025-09-12	0.3392	0.2659	0.2015
2025-09-19	0.3198	0.2687	0.2024
2025-09-26	0.3053	0.271	0.2032
2025-10-03	0.3102	0.2738	0.2041
2025-10-10	0.3489	0.2784	0.2052
2025-10-17	0.3247	0.2817	0.2061
2025-10-24	0.3351	0.2851	0.2071
2025-10-31	0.3053	0.2881	0.2079
2025-11-07	0.2908	0.2904	0.2086
2025-11-14	0.2956	0.2927	0.2093
2025-11-21	0.2932	0.2951	0.21
2025-11-28	0.3005	0.2974	0.2108
2025-12-05	0.3005	0.2997	0.2116
2025-12-12	0.2956	0.3017	0.2123
2025-12-19	0.3077	0.3038	0.2131
2025-12-26	0.3102	0.3055	0.214
2026-01-02	0.3247	0.3076	0.2149
2026-01-09	0.3295	0.3099	0.2159
2026-01-16	0.3198	0.3118	0.2168
2026-01-23	0.3198	0.3136	0.2177
2026-01-30	0.3102	0.3144	0.2185
2026-02-06	0.2956	0.3147	0.2193
2026-02-13	0.315	0.315	0.2201
2026-02-20	0.315	0.3156	0.2211
2026-02-27	0.3247	0.3159	0.222
2026-03-06	0.315	0.316	0.2229
2026-03-13	0.3053	0.3149	0.2237
2026-03-20	0.315	0.3142	0.2245
2026-03-27	0.295	0.3134	0.2252
2026-04-03	0.285	0.3117	0.2258
2026-04-10	0.29	0.3101	0.2264
2026-04-17	0.295	0.3093	0.2271
2026-04-24	0.30	0.3091	0.2278
2026-05-01	0.305	0.3089	0.2286
2026-05-08	0.31	0.3076	0.2294
2026-05-15	0.305	0.307	0.2302
2026-05-22	0.30	0.3058	0.231
2026-05-29	0.30	0.3056	0.2317
2026-06-05	0.285	0.3054	0.2324
2026-06-12	0.295	0.3054	0.2331
2026-06-19	0.29	0.3053	0.2339
2026-06-26	0.30	0.3053	0.2346
2026-07-03	0.29	0.3049	0.2354
2026-07-10	0.31	0.3054	0.2363
2026-07-17	0.32	0.3058	0.2372
2026-07-24	0.325	0.3063	0.2382
2026-07-31	0.3232	0.3063	0.2391
2026-08-07	0.3088	0.3056	0.2399
2026-08-14	0.3039	0.3051	0.2408
2026-08-21	0.3039	0.3045	0.2416
2026-08-28	0.2798	0.3035	0.2422
2026-09-04	0.28	0.303	0.2429
2026-09-11	0.275	0.3017	0.2435
2026-09-18	0.275	0.3003	0.2442
2026-09-25	0.275	0.2987	0.2448
2026-10-02	0.265	0.297	0.2454
2026-10-09	0.265	0.2957	0.246

4-week return -3.6%

13-week return -14.5%

26-week return -8.6%

52-week return -24.1%

From 52-week high -22.1%

26-week volatility 21.9%

Scenario playbook

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Start with the price condition. Then check the supporting evidence and the alternative count.

No rule-valid wave count is available. Compare the trend and cycle evidence while a clearer structure develops.

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

0 of 0 available degrees share the leading direction. These are different views of the same price series.

Strategic · 10.7% reversalNo rule-valid countInsufficient rule-valid geometry

Primary · 6.7% reversalNo rule-valid countInsufficient rule-valid geometry

Tactical · 4.7% reversalNo rule-valid countInsufficient rule-valid geometry

02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 6.7% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

No leading count meets the wave rules yet.

Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.

Leading wave count

No valid count

There is no leading pattern to test yet. Use the other readings and wait for more price swings.

Strategic degreeNo valid count

Strategic degree uses a 10.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreeNo valid count

Primary degree uses a 6.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreeNo valid count

Tactical degree uses a 4.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing -18.5%

11 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.2127

Pivot from 2025-03-14

Nearest confirmed resistance 0.325

Pivot from 2026-07-24

30-week trend 0.2957

Price is -10.4% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.246

Price is 7.7% from Fair Value

52-week range position 12%

0.255 low · 0.34 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

0 of 7 available readings are positive and 7 are negative. There is no leading wave direction to compare them with.

100% directional agreement

Use the other readings for context.

Trend

Price remains below its 30-week trend.

10.4% below trend

Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is not rising.

Falling

Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are weakening together.

Falling Stack

Relative strength

Underperforming its benchmark

-11.4

Market activity

Participation is weak

-18.6

Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is weak

-0.7

30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is negative

-13.2

Balance of readings Defensive

0 constructive, 7 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is weak.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Underperforming its benchmark.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is negative.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is weak.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Possible turning intervals

The timing map.

Estimated from 9 Oct 2026. Bands show model uncertainty, not confidence intervals or guaranteed turning dates.

Trough window Crest window

Now+34 weeks

10w bandEstimated 8w · Troughing

8/100Repeat fit · 34.5 cycles of history

Trough: 9 Oct–4 Dec 2026 (+0–8w)Crest: 16 Oct–11 Dec 2026 (+1–9w)

20w bandEstimated 25w · Falling

2/100Repeat fit · 11.0 cycles of history

Trough: 30 Oct–19 Feb 2027 (+3–19w)Crest: 4 Dec–26 Mar 2027 (+8–24w)

40w bandEstimated 30w · Falling

9/100Repeat fit · 9.2 cycles of history

Trough: 9 Oct–12 Feb 2027 (+0–18w)Crest: 4 Dec–4 Jun 2027 (+8–34w)

80w bandEstimated 73w · Falling

No measurable positive repeat

0/100Repeat fit · 3.8 cycles of history

The best nearby repeat is selected from the same sample being described. Its fit is not an out-of-sample forecast score. When fewer than two estimated cycles are available the recent weekly history has gaps, or no positive repeat is measured, timing windows are withheld.

Cycle pressure is falling. A recovery in price needs support from the other readings.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 9/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseFalling

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementFalling Stack

25/100 rising alignment · 75/100 falling alignment

Estimated next low5 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high16 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 8w

Current phaseTroughing

Repeat score8/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down

Since last trough4w

Possible next low0–8w

Typical / observed cycle20w / 25w

Current phaseFalling

Repeat score2/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down

Since last trough14w

Possible next low3–19w

Typical / observed cycle40w / 30w

Current phaseFalling

Repeat score9/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down

Since last trough25w

Possible next low0–18w

Typical / observed cycle80w / 73w

Current phaseFalling

Repeat score0/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down

Since last trough11w

Possible next low-

05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 24.1% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 22.1% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

Cycle rollover
Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.
Multi-cycle risk
Hurst risk alignment is 75/100.
Count instability
The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability.

Downside risk check

Contained

27/100

Wave maturity0/25

Trend extension0/20

Range position0/15

Cycle rollover11/15

Multi-cycle risk11/15

Count instability5/10

Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.255

52-week high0.34

Annualised volatility21.9%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range4.3%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-24.1%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume235%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.

38% constructive

9 of 24 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

33% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.

Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.

Peer-state horizon	Non-overlapping samples	Positive	Median	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Middle 80% of returns
4 weeks	556	51%	0.2%	-0.3%	-11.8% to 14.4%
13 weeks	216	49%	-0.6%	-1.6%	-21.2% to 22.2%
26 weeks	123	45%	-2.5%	-4.8%	-26.2% to 34.5%

07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was +1.4% across 52 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

53 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

1.4%

13w

2.3%

26w

4.8%

Horizon	Matches	Positive	Median	Range
4 weeks	52	56%	1.4%	-9.8% to 15.8%
13 weeks	50	70%	2.3%	-8.6% to 27.2%
26 weeks	39	80%	4.8%	-7.0% to 38.5%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations

Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history: 100/100
Indicator coverage: 100/100
Confirmed structure: 100/100

Elliott impulse rules ↗ · Hurst price confirmation ↗

Model ewc-2.2.0 · as of 2026-10-09 · the last swing is provisional; adaptive thresholds and cycle periods can revise earlier labels between reports.

How the count is built

Rules and data notes

Swing points use weekly closes and a 6.7% adaptive reversal threshold.
The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
These close-based impulse and A/B/C candidates do not exhaustively classify diagonals, triangles or complex corrections. Counts and historical cycle curves can be revised when adaptive thresholds or estimated periods change.
Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.

Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move. This is the current reconstruction; it is not a saved history of earlier published labels.

Date	Status	Type	Price	Move	Duration
2025-09-12	Confirmed	High	0.3392	59.5%	26 weeks
2025-09-26	Confirmed	Low	0.3053	-10.0%	2 weeks
2025-10-10	Confirmed	High	0.3489	14.3%	2 weeks
2025-11-07	Confirmed	Low	0.2908	-16.7%	4 weeks
2026-01-09	Confirmed	High	0.3295	13.3%	9 weeks
2026-02-06	Confirmed	Low	0.2956	-10.3%	4 weeks
2026-02-27	Confirmed	High	0.3247	9.8%	3 weeks
2026-04-03	Confirmed	Low	0.285	-12.2%	5 weeks
2026-05-08	Confirmed	High	0.31	8.8%	5 weeks
2026-06-05	Confirmed	Low	0.285	-8.1%	4 weeks
2026-07-24	Confirmed	High	0.325	14.0%	7 weeks
2026-10-09	Forming	Low	0.265	-18.5%	11 weeks

Follow the evidence

Test the view in related research.

Compare the same market from another angle. Shared price inputs can agree without providing independent confirmation.

CCVWave & cycle analysis

No clear wave pattern yet

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

No valid count

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Contained

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

38% constructive

Event information is limited

What happened after similar readings

Typical return after a match

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Chart guide

Send a message

Evidence context

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

No valid count

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Contained

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

38% constructive

Event information is limited

What happened after similar readings

Typical return after a match

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Stage Analysis ↗

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗