Weekly structural research · ASX · Consumer Cyclical

CCV Stage Analysis

Cash Converters International Limited

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close AUD 0.265Tenure NewBenchmark ^AXJO

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -73−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 76/100directional strength

Maturity 16/100lifecycle context

Confidence 83/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +7.7%AUD 0.246 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	0.265	0.2957	-11.44	3057969	Downward Expansion	-73	76
2026-10-02	0.265	0.297	-11.51	4313787	Downward Expansion	-77	77
2026-09-25	0.275	0.2987	-8.19	684075	Downward Expansion	-67	74
2026-09-18	0.275	0.3003	-9.04	3127691	Downward Expansion	-71	76
2026-09-11	0.275	0.3017	-9.40	3631928	Balance	-74	71
2026-09-04	0.28	0.303	-10.80	810853	Balance	-61	47
2026-08-28	0.2798	0.3035	-12.02	1776730	Balance	-32	28
2026-08-21	0.3039	0.3045	-4.34	324587	Rotation Up	7	8
2026-08-14	0.3039	0.3051	-5.13	201112	Rotation Up	25	35
2026-08-07	0.3088	0.3056	-5.41	525883	Rotation Up	31	55
2026-07-31	0.3232	0.3063	2.08	1033154	Rotation Up	40	61
2026-07-24	0.325	0.3063	5.00	500772	Balance	31	44
2026-07-17	0.32	0.3058	3.26	1130040	Balance	24	21
2026-07-10	0.31	0.3054	0.00	531860	Downward Expansion	-20	9
2026-07-03	0.29	0.3049	-6.77	790991	Downward Expansion	-54	32
2026-06-26	0.30	0.3053	-2.70	946677	Downward Expansion	-51	41
2026-06-19	0.29	0.3053	-6.47	193201	Downward Expansion	-54	45
2026-06-12	0.295	0.3054	-4.49	463971	Balance	-47	37
2026-06-05	0.285	0.3054	-5.65	1679008	Balance	-59	35
2026-05-29	0.30	0.3056	-1.79	310756	Balance	-31	14
2026-05-22	0.30	0.3058	-0.74	1614699	Balance	-28	15
2026-05-15	0.305	0.307	1.52	573965	Balance	-27	15
2026-05-08	0.31	0.3076	2.25	937674	Balance	-27	13
2026-05-01	0.305	0.3089	1.18	2382988	Downward Expansion	-47	24
2026-04-24	0.30	0.3091	-0.74	4270559	Downward Expansion	-51	46
2026-04-17	0.295	0.3093	-3.80	706108	Downward Expansion	-55	57
2026-04-10	0.29	0.3101	-5.36	1185332	Downward Expansion	-59	58
2026-04-03	0.285	0.3117	-2.68	1400069	Balance	-65	53
2026-03-27	0.295	0.3134	1.77	1424248	Balance	-45	24
2026-03-20	0.315	0.3142	10.16	1904807	Balance	-1	3
2026-03-13	0.3053	0.3149	4.96	2069122	Balance	-23	11
2026-03-06	0.315	0.316	5.92	3138202	Balance	7	10
2026-02-27	0.3247	0.3159	5.48	2462260	Balance	-11	7
2026-02-20	0.315	0.3156	4.04	1360724	Balance	-28	19
2026-02-13	0.315	0.315	6.34	1473892	Balance	-28	18
2026-02-06	0.2956	0.3147	2.72	1970485	Balance	-48	23
2026-01-30	0.3102	0.3144	6.28	856060	Rotation Up	8	22
2026-01-23	0.3198	0.3136	10.26	926985	Rotation Up	25	37
2026-01-16	0.3198	0.3118	10.27	1584942	Rotation Up	23	35
2026-01-09	0.3295	0.3099	16.68	1906278	Balance	42	33
2026-01-02	0.3247	0.3076	15.59	966477	Balance	16	14
2025-12-26	0.3102	0.3055	10.62	152149	Balance	-8	7
2025-12-19	0.3077	0.3038	12.09	905706	Rotation Down	-12	11
2025-12-12	0.2956	0.3017	7.27	1674635	Rotation Down	-19	22
2025-12-05	0.3005	0.2997	10.31	2187768	Rotation Down	-17	30
2025-11-28	0.3005	0.2974	11.18	3599322	Deceleration	-17	32
2025-11-21	0.2932	0.2951	11.70	2819429	Deceleration	-3	21
2025-11-14	0.2956	0.2927	10.47	5143248	Deceleration	2	14
2025-11-07	0.2908	0.2904	7.59	11913017	Deceleration	3	7
2025-10-31	0.3053	0.2881	12.18	6099775	Deceleration	34	24
2025-10-24	0.3351	0.2851	22.01	7582088	Deceleration	56	37
2025-10-17	0.3247	0.2817	19.51	3652236	Deceleration	40	26
2025-10-10	0.3489	0.2784	29.91	4134198	Deceleration	60	34
2025-10-03	0.3102	0.2738	16.15	2241990	Upward Expansion	41	27
2025-09-26	0.3053	0.271	17.71	1973507	Upward Expansion	47	37
2025-09-19	0.3198	0.2687	24.27	2823176	Upward Expansion	61	51
2025-09-12	0.3392	0.2659	31.45	4827324	Upward Expansion	72	63
2025-09-05	0.3345	0.2621	30.80	5735893	Upward Expansion	73	68
2025-08-29	0.3204	0.2585	24.93	2644337	Upward Expansion	68	67
2025-08-22	0.3345	0.2554	31.55	3837547	Upward Expansion	80	81
2025-08-15	0.3392	0.2519	35.18	2906016	Upward Expansion	90	80
2025-08-08	0.3109	0.248	26.99	1614167	Upward Expansion	74	82
2025-08-01	0.3157	0.245	32.16	7323015	Upward Expansion	86	93
2025-07-25	0.2968	0.242	25.29	2637182	Upward Expansion	74	89
2025-07-18	0.3062	0.2397	28.96	10645778	Upward Expansion	91	95
2025-07-11	0.2874	0.2369	24.79	2259039	Upward Expansion	84	90
2025-07-04	0.2874	0.2347	25.67	4188894	Upward Expansion	89	87
2025-06-27	0.2638	0.2324	17.48	1676836	Upward Expansion	69	77
2025-06-20	0.2638	0.2306	18.16	3269887	Upward Expansion	73	83
2025-06-13	0.2591	0.2288	16.23	2314887	Upward Expansion	71	81
2025-06-06	0.2638	0.2271	19.43	2775375	Upward Expansion	82	82
2025-05-30	0.2591	0.2249	19.17	2422857	Upward Expansion	79	74
2025-05-23	0.245	0.2229	14.32	8254836	Deceleration	69	59
2025-05-16	0.2356	0.2214	10.63	4761115	Deceleration	55	39
2025-05-09	0.2309	0.2203	10.31	3077080	Deceleration	38	23
2025-05-02	0.2309	0.2194	10.65	706695	Deceleration	38	17
2025-04-25	0.2214	0.2184	10.08	642533	Deceleration	13	10
2025-04-18	0.2261	0.2179	14.90	536511	Deceleration	20	9
2025-04-11	0.2214	0.2172	15.48	1856543	Deceleration	14	8
2025-04-04	0.2167	0.2161	13.10	2639396	Deceleration	7	11
2025-03-28	0.2309	0.2155	16.12	2214692	Deceleration	42	21
2025-03-21	0.2263	0.2143	14.92	3073096	Deceleration	34	16
2025-03-14	0.2127	0.2129	10.28	2168809	Upward Expansion	22	18
2025-03-07	0.2263	0.2121	15.20	846630	Upward Expansion	57	42
2025-02-28	0.2353	0.2106	16.90	1749949	Upward Expansion	69	51
2025-02-21	0.2353	0.2091	15.58	1160217	Upward Expansion	71	49
2025-02-14	0.2263	0.2073	8.05	1025844	Upward Expansion	56	44
2025-02-07	0.2263	0.2053	8.79	766119	Upward Expansion	58	45
2025-01-31	0.2263	0.2031	8.76	352449	Upward Expansion	61	48
2025-01-24	0.2308	0.2014	12.77	1595703	Upward Expansion	74	56
2025-01-17	0.2217	0.2001	9.87	752400	Upward Expansion	63	55
2025-01-10	0.2217	0.1985	10.27	1927415	Upward Expansion	66	70
2025-01-03	0.2263	0.197	13.38	734856	Upward Expansion	74	86
2024-12-27	0.2263	0.1954	13.50	669885	Upward Expansion	79	86
2024-12-20	0.2217	0.1937	14.27	2723949	Upward Expansion	75	83
2024-12-13	0.2217	0.1924	11.55	2332901	Upward Expansion	78	81
2024-12-06	0.2172	0.1911	7.99	2154881	Upward Expansion	75	74
2024-11-29	0.2127	0.1897	5.74	988372	Upward Expansion	70	60
2024-11-22	0.2082	0.1887	4.06	2509651	Upward Expansion	64	42
2024-11-15	0.2082	0.1878	5.53	1847812	Upward Expansion	67	39
2024-11-08	0.1991	0.187	0.86	1386810	Upward Expansion	42	29
2024-11-01	0.1991	0.1867	2.97	595468	Upward Expansion	46	34
2024-10-25	0.1991	0.1862	1.77	622116	Upward Expansion	58	46
2024-10-18	0.2036	0.1861	3.08	1120050	Upward Expansion	61	64
2024-10-11	0.2036	0.1858	3.94	1106848	Upward Expansion	64	67
2024-10-04	0.1991	0.1854	2.39	1148549	Upward Expansion	60	60
2024-09-27	0.2082	0.1851	6.18	2253968	Upward Expansion	70	66
2024-09-20	0.2036	0.1843	4.01	2708862	Rotation Up	68	58
2024-09-13	0.1901	0.1839	-1.59	2901626	Rotation Up	26	33
2024-09-06	0.199	0.1838	4.07	1611707	Rotation Up	40	47
2024-08-30	0.1947	0.1832	0.82	1833296	Rotation Up	26	33
2024-08-23	0.1817	0.183	-5.17	1140721	Rotation Up	12	18
2024-08-16	0.1904	0.1831	-0.15	1068949	Downward Expansion	20	22
2024-08-09	0.1817	0.1829	-2.35	2501686	Downward Expansion	-24	13
2024-08-02	0.1904	0.1827	0.12	3016643	Downward Expansion	-18	13
2024-07-26	0.1817	0.1825	-4.19	10853363	Downward Expansion	-47	39
2024-07-19	0.1644	0.1824	-13.90	19767704	Downward Expansion	-62	42
2024-07-12	0.1601	0.1825	-16.25	8242301	Balance	-70	41
2024-07-05	0.1774	0.1829	-5.85	7615166	Balance	-13	8
2024-06-28	0.1904	0.1826	1.58	4210873	Deceleration	5	6
2024-06-21	0.1731	0.1821	-8.00	5180009	Deceleration	-32	33
2024-06-14	0.1774	0.1818	-5.04	1794378	Deceleration	-26	20
2024-06-07	0.1774	0.1817	-6.80	5611522	Deceleration	-17	15
2024-05-31	0.1774	0.1816	-5.09	2212374	Deceleration	-19	21
2024-05-24	0.1817	0.1815	-3.28	1524710	Deceleration	-13	16
2024-05-17	0.1817	0.1813	-4.50	1794682	Deceleration	-13	17
2024-05-10	0.1774	0.1809	-6.12	4454392	Deceleration	-21	22
2024-05-03	0.1817	0.1809	-2.48	820760	Deceleration	7	13
2024-04-26	0.1817	0.1806	-1.95	331191	Deceleration	20	16
2024-04-19	0.1817	0.1802	-1.95	502720	Upward Expansion	29	14
2024-04-12	0.1904	0.18	-0.36	965299	Upward Expansion	53	32
2024-04-05	0.186	0.1796	-2.54	3833170	Upward Expansion	55	36
2024-03-29	0.1947	0.1793	0.17	2120020	Upward Expansion	65	49
2024-03-22	0.1948	0.1789	1.75	2366895	Upward Expansion	69	49
2024-03-15	0.1907	0.1782	0.81	729949	Upward Expansion	61	45
2024-03-08	0.1907	0.1776	-1.55	2213851	Upward Expansion	65	48
2024-03-01	0.1865	0.1771	-2.52	2488773	Upward Expansion	58	41
2024-02-23	0.1907	0.1769	0.95	2104741	Upward Expansion	71	54
2024-02-16	0.1865	0.1763	-1.31	1472882	Upward Expansion	65	59
2024-02-09	0.1824	0.1759	-3.32	2357409	Upward Expansion	61	62
2024-02-02	0.1865	0.1756	-1.84	1222056	Upward Expansion	71	71
2024-01-26	0.1865	0.1752	0.07	1309914	Rotation Up	71	69
2024-01-19	0.1824	0.1749	-0.31	1218380	Rotation Up	35	43
2024-01-12	0.1782	0.1748	-3.55	920148	Rotation Up	12	20
2024-01-05	0.1824	0.1747	-1.23	468470	Downward Expansion	23	19
2023-12-29	0.1782	0.1747	-4.82	645687	Downward Expansion	-19	9
2023-12-22	0.1699	0.1748	-8.29	1153623	Downward Expansion	-50	27
2023-12-15	0.1699	0.1752	-7.78	2353191	Downward Expansion	-52	42
2023-12-08	0.1699	0.1756	-4.76	991633	Downward Expansion	-51	37
2023-12-01	0.1741	0.176	-0.84	1536631	Downward Expansion	-45	28
2023-11-24	0.1658	0.1764	-5.14	5230500	Downward Expansion	-64	37
2023-11-17	0.1741	0.177	-0.64	1409485	Downward Expansion	-40	18
2023-11-10	0.1741	0.1776	0.34	372382	Downward Expansion	-42	22
2023-11-03	0.1741	0.1782	0.20	904165	Downward Expansion	-42	20
2023-10-27	0.1741	0.1788	2.31	1423522	Downward Expansion	-45	24
2023-10-20	0.1699	0.1792	-1.21	811247	Downward Expansion	-59	44

Price vs TrendBelow-10.4%

Trend directionFalling-3.5%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+7.7%

Fair Value directionMoving away-23.5%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-11.4%

Relative strength directionWeakening-11.4%

Price momentumNegative-8.6%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.21×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-73 / ±100

+1.2 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

76 /100

+4.7 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

CCV Directional State ↗ CCV Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance11

Rotation Up10

Upward Expansion17

Deceleration38

Rotation Down80

Downward Expansion95

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 16%Rotation Up 10%Upward Expansion 36%Deceleration 18%Rotation Down 2%Downward Expansion 19%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-09-18	2026-10-09	New	-3.6%
Balance	2026-08-28	2026-09-11	New	-1.7%
Rotation Up	2026-07-31	2026-08-21	New	-6.0%
Balance	2026-07-17	2026-07-24	New	+1.6%
Downward Expansion	2026-06-19	2026-07-10	New	+6.9%
Balance	2026-05-08	2026-06-12	Developing	-4.8%
Downward Expansion	2026-04-10	2026-05-01	New	+5.2%
Balance	2026-02-06	2026-04-03	Developing	-3.6%
Rotation Up	2026-01-16	2026-01-30	New	-3.0%
Balance	2025-12-26	2026-01-09	New	+6.2%
Rotation Down	2025-12-05	2025-12-19	New	+2.4%
Deceleration	2025-10-10	2025-11-28	Developing	-13.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-30	2025-10-03	Established	+19.7%
Deceleration	2025-03-21	2025-05-23	Developing	+8.3%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing35

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution47

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 96/100
Current Relative Strength: -11.44
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -8.6%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -5.9%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 81th percentile32 in cohort

Test CCV trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume2.35×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.21×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore CCV Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity AUD 0.269falling

Slow Activity AUD 0.292falling

Trend Reference AUD 0.2957-10.4% close margin

Current Fair Value AUD 0.246+7.7% close margin

Structural low AUD 0.255shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +5.6%

Annualized volatility +22.1%

From structural high -22.1%

From structural low +3.9%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Regime survived	Read
Near term	15	+2.4%-2.4% to +15.8%	+60.0%	+26.7%	+3.2%	+53.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	8	+4.2%-14.5% to +23.9%	+87.5%	+12.5%	+6.5%	+37.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+2.5%-8.6% to +34.9%	+80.0%	+20.0%	+2.2%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+8.5%+4.4% to +63.3%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+12.6%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

CCV Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map