BUE · Healthcare · Weekly analysis

AZNWave & cycle analysis

AstraZeneca PLC

Latest close ARS 67,400.00 Week ending 25 Sep 2026 History 276 weeks
Current reading

The wave count points to a decline

The selected pattern describes a move downward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

63/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Watching Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countPossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings support this direction

5 of 7 available readings support the downward wave interpretation; 2 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

Main uncertaintyLow count stability

The leading count changed 5 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in ARS · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2023-10-06214.00213.84212.91
2023-10-13214.00213.85212.93
2023-10-20214.00213.85212.94
2023-10-27214.00213.86212.95
2023-11-03214.00213.87212.97
2023-11-10214.00213.88212.98
2023-11-17214.00213.89213.00
2023-11-24214.00213.89213.01
2023-12-01214.00213.90213.02
2023-12-08214.00213.91213.04
2023-12-15214.00213.92213.05
2023-12-22214.00213.92213.06
2023-12-29214.00213.93213.08
2024-01-05214.00213.94213.09
2024-01-12214.00213.95213.11
2024-01-19214.00213.95213.12
2024-01-26214.00213.96213.13
2024-02-02214.00213.97213.15
2024-02-09214.00213.98213.16
2024-02-16214.00213.99213.17
2024-02-23214.49214.01213.19
2024-03-01214.49214.03213.20
2024-03-08214.49214.05213.22
2024-03-15214.49214.07213.23
2024-03-22214.49214.08213.24
2024-03-29214.49214.10213.26
2024-04-05214.49214.12213.27
2024-04-12214.49214.13213.28
2024-04-19214.49214.15213.30
2024-04-26214.49214.17213.31
2024-05-03214.49214.18213.33
2024-05-10214.49214.20213.34
2024-05-17214.49214.21213.35
2024-05-24214.49214.23213.37
2024-05-3148,855.101,835.60525.18
2024-06-0752,559.993,580.47860.74
2024-06-1450,387.555,252.921,182.38
2024-06-2149,828.576,906.741,500.43
2024-06-2852,836.488,660.821,837.77
2024-07-0554,074.4510,456.172,183.04
2024-07-1256,698.3712,338.982,545.13
2024-07-1952,248.5014,073.462,878.69
2024-07-2651,598.5215,786.283,208.09
2024-08-0254,098.4517,582.433,553.51
2024-08-0952,698.7319,331.923,889.96
2024-08-1654,398.6921,138.084,237.31
2024-08-2356,048.6522,999.234,595.23
2024-08-3056,648.6424,880.394,957.00
2024-09-0652,348.7426,618.215,291.21
2024-09-1348,973.8228,243.545,603.78
2024-09-2047,898.8429,833.025,909.46
2024-09-2747,798.8531,419.166,214.50
2024-10-0447,523.8632,996.146,517.78
2024-10-1145,298.9134,498.966,806.80
2024-10-1846,848.8836,053.437,105.75
2024-10-2543,898.9437,509.587,385.79
2024-11-0142,073.9938,904.907,654.13
2024-11-0837,374.1040,143.557,892.34
2024-11-1535,949.1341,334.718,121.43
2024-11-2236,474.1242,543.368,353.87
2024-11-2937,499.0943,786.188,592.89
2024-12-0636,599.1244,999.008,826.13
2024-12-1336,274.1246,200.999,057.30
2024-12-2037,999.0947,460.489,299.52
2024-12-2739,199.0547,138.619,549.43
2025-01-0339,099.0646,689.919,798.71
2025-01-1039,774.0446,336.1310,052.31
2025-01-1739,674.0445,997.6410,305.26
2025-01-2440,399.0345,583.0610,562.87
2025-01-3141,948.9945,178.8810,830.41
2025-02-0743,123.9644,726.4011,105.48
2025-02-1443,998.9444,451.4111,386.17
2025-02-2145,174.4444,237.2811,674.38
2025-02-2846,249.4343,975.6411,969.48
2025-03-0747,199.4143,792.3312,270.68
2025-03-1448,124.4043,583.1912,577.80
2025-03-2148,324.4043,325.7112,886.21
2025-03-2848,299.4043,047.4113,194.45
2025-04-0445,749.4342,827.4313,486.35
2025-04-1144,099.4542,664.9513,767.68
2025-04-1839,424.5142,382.4714,019.03
2025-04-2541,699.4842,179.1614,284.97
2025-05-0242,749.4642,020.0114,557.64
2025-05-0938,999.5141,810.0314,806.27
2025-05-1640,324.5041,592.5515,063.40
2025-05-2340,974.4941,495.0715,324.69
2025-05-3043,899.4541,555.9215,604.73
2025-06-0643,574.4641,762.6015,882.69
2025-06-1344,374.4542,043.4416,165.77
2025-06-2039,574.5042,146.7916,418.09
2025-06-2741,924.4842,294.3016,685.47
2025-07-0442,999.4642,507.6516,959.74
2025-07-1145,224.4442,805.9917,248.28
2025-07-1844,624.4543,026.8417,532.97
2025-07-2546,899.4243,283.5217,832.24
2025-08-0150,599.3743,666.8618,155.23
2025-08-0849,024.6443,975.2118,468.12
2025-08-1551,299.6344,362.7318,795.60
2025-08-2253,799.6144,809.4219,139.10
2025-08-2953,999.6145,211.1119,483.88
2025-09-0556,799.5945,666.9619,846.62
2025-09-1258,724.5746,157.8120,221.69
2025-09-1959,449.5746,633.6520,601.41
2025-09-2654,174.6146,897.8220,947.31
2025-10-0364,824.5347,485.3321,361.49
2025-10-1062,999.5447,981.1721,763.96
2025-10-1765,324.5248,547.8422,181.34
2025-10-2465,249.5349,112.8422,598.24
2025-10-3161,899.5549,651.1822,993.67
2025-11-0762,449.5550,262.8523,392.62
2025-11-1466,349.5251,160.3523,816.57
2025-11-2169,024.5052,071.1824,257.67
2025-11-2871,124.4853,017.0224,712.23
2025-12-0568,149.5153,988.6825,147.71
2025-12-1267,849.5154,906.1825,581.28
2025-12-1970,974.4855,906.1826,034.88
2025-12-2671,974.4856,842.0226,494.89
2026-01-0270,524.4857,740.3526,945.60
2026-01-0972,374.4858,673.6927,408.17
2026-01-1671,399.4859,734.5227,864.49
2026-01-2370,299.4960,680.3528,313.76
2026-01-3071,024.4861,614.5228,767.68
2026-02-0672,049.4862,508.6929,228.17
2026-02-1375,274.4563,530.3629,709.33
2026-02-2074,425.0064,447.8730,185.04
2026-02-2776,275.0065,303.7330,672.61
2026-03-0672,100.0066,072.9131,133.42
2026-03-1370,000.0066,696.2531,580.77
2026-03-2067,500.0067,152.9332,012.09
2026-03-2769,725.0067,677.1132,457.68
2026-04-0374,600.0068,270.4632,934.51
2026-04-1075,425.0068,827.1433,416.64
2026-04-1774,975.0069,344.6633,895.88
2026-04-2470,875.0069,901.3334,348.83
2026-05-0170,525.0070,091.3534,799.54
2026-05-0867,750.0070,249.7035,232.47
2026-05-1567,325.0070,316.3835,662.67
2026-05-2269,825.0070,468.9036,108.90
2026-05-2968,850.0070,700.5836,548.87
2026-06-0570,125.0070,956.4336,997.02
2026-06-1266,925.0070,975.6137,424.66
2026-06-1965,900.0070,871.4637,845.72
2026-06-2672,625.0070,921.4838,309.90
2026-07-0379,499.1271,299.8038,818.14
2026-07-1066,906.5771,268.3739,245.65
2026-07-1766,058.6671,104.5139,667.74
2026-07-2467,098.3570,941.9740,096.48
2026-07-3166,552.8770,809.5840,521.73
2026-08-0763,825.0070,524.6040,929.50
2026-08-1461,550.0070,196.2841,322.68
2026-08-2166,225.0070,060.4741,745.82
2026-08-2865,275.0069,868.8242,162.88
2026-09-0464,550.0069,618.8342,575.29
2026-09-1164,050.0069,244.6942,984.50
2026-09-1866,400.0068,977.1943,408.77
2026-09-2567,400.0068,681.3543,839.45
4-week return 3.3%
13-week return -7.2%
26-week return -3.3%
52-week return 24.4%
From 52-week high -15.5%
26-week volatility 37.3%
Scenario playbook

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Start with the price condition. Then check the supporting evidence and the alternative count.

Direction holds

Wait for price confirmation

Below ARS 61,550.00

The count needs a weekly close beyond this reference, with supporting price and cycle evidence.

No decision yet

Timing arrives; price does not turn

A projected window can pass without a reversal. Keep the count provisional if price has not confirmed; review the alternative count and the longer cycle.

Count fails

Know what changes the view

Above ARS 79,499.12

A weekly close beyond this boundary conflicts with the selected count. Review a fresh count instead of extending the old explanation.

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

3 of 3 available degrees share the leading direction. These are different views of the same price series.

Strategic · 14.7% reversalPossible bearish Wave 2 crest
58/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction
Primary · 9.2% reversalPossible bearish Wave 2 crest
63/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction
Tactical · 6.4% reversalPossible bearish Wave 2 crest
63/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 9.2% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible bearish Wave 2 crestPrimary swing size · Leading38%
Possible bearish Wave 2 crestTactical swing size38%
Possible bearish Wave 2 crestStrategic swing size25%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

Possible bearish Wave 2 crest

38% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm below 61,550.00 Fails above 79,499.12 Count stability Low · 20/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 79,499.12; Wave 2 67,400.00.
GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 33% of Wave 1.
Strategic degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Strategic degree uses a 14.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Primary degree uses a 9.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Tactical degree uses a 6.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 9.5%

6 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 61,550.00

Pivot from 2026-08-14

Nearest confirmed resistance 79,499.12

Pivot from 2026-07-03

30-week trend 68,681.35

Price is -1.9% from trend

Fair Value reference 43,839.45

Price is 53.7% from Fair Value

52-week range position 52%

54,224.60 low · 79,799.42 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

5 of 7 available readings support the downward wave interpretation; 2 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

71% directional agreement

The other readings support this direction. 5 readings support the selected direction; 2 lean against it.

Trend

Price remains below its 30-week trend.

1.9% below trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Troughing
Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are improving together.

Rising Stack
Relative strength

Underperforming its benchmark

-3.0
Market activity

Participation is weak

-21.2
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is weak

-0.6
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is negative

-11.6
Balance of readings Defensive

2 constructive, 5 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is weak. This supports the downward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Underperforming its benchmark. This supports the downward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is negative. This supports the downward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is weak. This supports the downward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Possible turning intervals

The timing map.

Estimated from 25 Sep 2026. Bands show model uncertainty, not confidence intervals or guaranteed turning dates.

Trough window Crest window
Now+1 weeks
10w bandEstimated 8w · Rising
No measurable positive repeat
0/100Repeat fit · 34.5 cycles of history
20w bandEstimated 15w · Rising
No measurable positive repeat
0/100Repeat fit · 18.4 cycles of history
40w bandEstimated 30w · Troughing
No measurable positive repeat
0/100Repeat fit · 9.2 cycles of history
80w bandEstimated 100w · Falling
No measurable positive repeat
0/100Repeat fit · 2.8 cycles of history

The best nearby repeat is selected from the same sample being described. Its fit is not an out-of-sample forecast score. When fewer than two estimated cycles are available the recent weekly history has gaps, or no positive repeat is measured, timing windows are withheld.

Cycle pressure is near a low and starting to turn. Look for price to confirm an upswing.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 0/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseTroughing

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementRising Stack

75/100 rising alignment · 25/100 falling alignment

Estimated next low-

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high-

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 8w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough6w
Possible next low-
Typical / observed cycle20w / 15w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough6w
Possible next low-
Typical / observed cycle40w / 30w
Current phaseTroughing
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough2w
Possible next low-
Typical / observed cycle80w / 100w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough135w
Possible next low-
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 15.2% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 15.5% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Count instability

    The primary interpretation has low recent stability.

  • Multi-cycle risk

    Hurst risk alignment is 25/100.

Downside risk check

Contained

12/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension0/20
Range position0/15
Cycle rollover0/15
Multi-cycle risk4/15
Count instability8/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low54,224.60
52-week high79,799.42
Annualised volatility37.3%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range3.5%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-15.2%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume86%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Most analysed peers have an upward wave count. That contrasts with this report’s downward interpretation.

76% constructive

13 of 17 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

24% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Check the upcoming earnings date

Earnings: 2026-11-05 · about 6w away

Options: Bearish · 50/100 conviction · ±% expected move

Stored options pressure is bearish with 50/100 conviction.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^MERVMiddle 80% of returns
4 weeks15161%3.4%1.6%-9.3% to 14.9%
13 weeks6680%16.4%9.1%-15.4% to 39.4%
26 weeks4176%25.7%-0.1%-16.7% to 61.8%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was +3.1% across 21 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

22 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
3.1%
13w
17.0%
26w
44.8%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 21 71% 3.1% -6.8% to 12.8%
13 weeks 15 87% 17.0% -4.3% to 50.2%
26 weeks 13 100% 44.8% 7.0% to 79.3%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
100/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100

Elliott impulse rules ↗ · Hurst price confirmation ↗

Model ewc-2.2.0 · as of 2026-09-25 · the last swing is provisional; adaptive thresholds and cycle periods can revise earlier labels between reports.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 9.2% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • These close-based impulse and A/B/C candidates do not exhaustively classify diagonals, triangles or complex corrections. Counts and historical cycle curves can be revised when adaptive thresholds or estimated periods change.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move. This is the current reconstruction; it is not a saved history of earlier published labels.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2024-11-15 Confirmed Low 35,949.13 -14.6% 2 weeks
2025-03-21 Confirmed High 48,324.40 34.4% 18 weeks
2025-05-09 Confirmed Low 38,999.51 -19.3% 7 weeks
2025-06-13 Confirmed High 44,374.45 13.8% 5 weeks
2025-06-20 Confirmed Low 39,574.50 -10.8% 1 weeks
2026-02-27 Confirmed High 76,275.00 92.7% 36 weeks
2026-03-20 Confirmed Low 67,500.00 -11.5% 3 weeks
2026-04-10 Confirmed High 75,425.00 11.7% 3 weeks
2026-06-19 Confirmed Low 65,900.00 -12.6% 10 weeks
2026-07-03 Confirmed High 79,499.12 20.6% 2 weeks
2026-08-14 Confirmed Low 61,550.00 -22.6% 6 weeks
2026-09-25 Forming High 67,400.00 9.5% 6 weeks
Follow the evidence

Test the view in related research.

Compare the same market from another angle. Shared price inputs can agree without providing independent confirmation.

Similar Charts ↗

Where else is this shape appearing?

Compare the weekly price path with other published market profiles.

Chart guide

Evidence context