Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.
NASDAQ · Healthcare · Weekly analysis
MRNAWave & cycle analysis
Moderna Inc
Current reading
The five-wave move is mature
The count describes a move that may be nearing its end. Watch for a confirmed reversal; maturity alone does not mean price has turned.
55/100 Setup score
100/100 Data quality
Mature / manage risk Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report
Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.
Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.
Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.
01 · Price & key levels
The pattern and the prices to watch
7 readings are positive, 0 are negative and 0 are neutral. They describe current direction, not whether a mature move has finished.
The leading count changed 1 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.
Weekly price and wave pattern
Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.
Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern
The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.
Reading the chart
Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move. A confirmed turn means price reversed far enough to establish that swing point. It does not confirm what price will do next.
The green line is the trend reference. Fair Value provides price context. Dashed confirmation and failure levels describe the selected count; they are not price targets.
Weekly chart values
| Week ending | Close | 30-week trend | Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-06 | 103.88 | 124.51 | 177.77 |
| 2023-10-13 | 98.30 | 122.79 | 177.92 |
| 2023-10-20 | 80.40 | 120.44 | 177.99 |
| 2023-10-27 | 71.91 | 117.72 | 178.01 |
| 2023-11-03 | 77.53 | 115.03 | 178.05 |
| 2023-11-10 | 70.05 | 112.12 | 177.92 |
| 2023-11-17 | 76.44 | 109.98 | 177.79 |
| 2023-11-24 | 78.52 | 108.17 | 177.48 |
| 2023-12-01 | 79.83 | 106.26 | 177.01 |
| 2023-12-08 | 80.32 | 104.63 | 176.52 |
| 2023-12-15 | 86.01 | 103.28 | 176.17 |
| 2023-12-22 | 94.89 | 102.24 | 175.99 |
| 2023-12-29 | 99.45 | 101.20 | 175.96 |
| 2024-01-05 | 111.12 | 100.80 | 175.95 |
| 2024-01-12 | 105.95 | 100.04 | 175.79 |
| 2024-01-19 | 99.70 | 99.41 | 175.59 |
| 2024-01-26 | 101.81 | 98.76 | 175.14 |
| 2024-02-02 | 97.50 | 98.04 | 174.63 |
| 2024-02-09 | 87.41 | 96.91 | 174.01 |
| 2024-02-16 | 88.37 | 95.64 | 173.46 |
| 2024-02-23 | 96.46 | 94.90 | 173.09 |
| 2024-03-01 | 95.06 | 94.47 | 172.85 |
| 2024-03-08 | 103.03 | 94.52 | 172.63 |
| 2024-03-15 | 103.85 | 94.59 | 172.37 |
| 2024-03-22 | 105.43 | 94.38 | 172.20 |
| 2024-03-29 | 106.56 | 94.18 | 172.03 |
| 2024-04-05 | 102.88 | 94.02 | 171.79 |
| 2024-04-12 | 105.14 | 93.70 | 171.36 |
| 2024-04-19 | 101.41 | 93.75 | 170.90 |
| 2024-04-26 | 107.97 | 93.91 | 170.45 |
| 2024-05-03 | 125.00 | 94.61 | 170.20 |
| 2024-05-10 | 117.31 | 95.24 | 169.92 |
| 2024-05-17 | 132.90 | 96.99 | 169.74 |
| 2024-05-24 | 166.61 | 100.15 | 169.62 |
| 2024-05-31 | 142.55 | 102.32 | 169.21 |
| 2024-06-07 | 151.01 | 105.02 | 168.78 |
| 2024-06-14 | 140.03 | 107.14 | 168.40 |
| 2024-06-21 | 133.40 | 108.97 | 167.84 |
| 2024-06-28 | 118.75 | 110.26 | 167.10 |
| 2024-07-05 | 118.32 | 111.53 | 166.37 |
| 2024-07-12 | 121.46 | 112.71 | 165.31 |
| 2024-07-19 | 121.14 | 113.59 | 163.85 |
| 2024-07-26 | 122.11 | 114.34 | 162.37 |
| 2024-08-02 | 86.58 | 113.52 | 160.27 |
| 2024-08-09 | 84.93 | 112.82 | 158.32 |
| 2024-08-16 | 86.84 | 112.39 | 156.42 |
| 2024-08-23 | 82.44 | 111.75 | 154.50 |
| 2024-08-30 | 77.40 | 111.08 | 152.32 |
| 2024-09-06 | 72.89 | 110.59 | 149.91 |
| 2024-09-13 | 68.28 | 109.92 | 147.59 |
| 2024-09-20 | 65.69 | 108.90 | 145.25 |
| 2024-09-27 | 65.75 | 107.92 | 143.49 |
| 2024-10-04 | 60.20 | 106.49 | 141.92 |
| 2024-10-11 | 58.29 | 104.98 | 140.21 |
| 2024-10-18 | 54.10 | 103.26 | 138.47 |
| 2024-10-25 | 53.09 | 101.48 | 136.60 |
| 2024-11-01 | 54.63 | 99.87 | 135.43 |
| 2024-11-08 | 46.83 | 97.93 | 134.24 |
| 2024-11-15 | 36.85 | 95.78 | 132.79 |
| 2024-11-22 | 41.11 | 93.55 | 130.94 |
| 2024-11-29 | 43.06 | 90.82 | 129.25 |
| 2024-12-06 | 44.44 | 88.39 | 127.89 |
| 2024-12-13 | 41.83 | 85.35 | 126.27 |
| 2024-12-20 | 39.39 | 81.11 | 124.92 |
| 2024-12-27 | 40.13 | 77.70 | 123.54 |
| 2025-01-03 | 42.18 | 74.07 | 122.44 |
| 2025-01-10 | 42.25 | 70.81 | 121.40 |
| 2025-01-17 | 34.06 | 67.50 | 120.60 |
| 2025-01-24 | 41.41 | 64.92 | 119.84 |
| 2025-01-31 | 39.42 | 62.29 | 119.05 |
| 2025-02-07 | 32.60 | 59.33 | 118.22 |
| 2025-02-14 | 32.99 | 56.39 | 117.50 |
| 2025-02-21 | 35.53 | 53.51 | 116.76 |
| 2025-02-28 | 30.96 | 51.65 | 116.08 |
| 2025-03-07 | 35.61 | 50.01 | 115.42 |
| 2025-03-14 | 34.62 | 48.27 | 114.50 |
| 2025-03-21 | 32.66 | 46.61 | 113.64 |
| 2025-03-28 | 31.12 | 45.07 | 112.71 |
| 2025-04-04 | 25.11 | 43.47 | 111.84 |
| 2025-04-11 | 26.20 | 42.07 | 110.95 |
| 2025-04-18 | 24.72 | 40.70 | 110.21 |
| 2025-04-25 | 27.22 | 39.42 | 109.52 |
| 2025-05-02 | 27.61 | 38.33 | 108.83 |
| 2025-05-09 | 24.25 | 37.20 | 108.11 |
| 2025-05-16 | 24.86 | 36.22 | 107.39 |
| 2025-05-23 | 26.26 | 35.33 | 106.61 |
| 2025-05-30 | 26.56 | 34.39 | 105.90 |
| 2025-06-06 | 27.46 | 33.75 | 105.27 |
| 2025-06-13 | 26.67 | 33.41 | 104.62 |
| 2025-06-20 | 25.90 | 32.90 | 103.86 |
| 2025-06-27 | 27.16 | 32.37 | 103.07 |
| 2025-07-04 | 30.49 | 31.91 | 102.14 |
| 2025-07-11 | 33.64 | 31.63 | 101.28 |
| 2025-07-18 | 31.26 | 31.36 | 100.43 |
| 2025-07-25 | 34.15 | 31.16 | 99.60 |
| 2025-08-01 | 27.60 | 30.68 | 98.58 |
| 2025-08-08 | 26.12 | 30.14 | 97.65 |
| 2025-08-15 | 28.02 | 29.94 | 96.89 |
| 2025-08-22 | 27.12 | 29.46 | 96.19 |
| 2025-08-29 | 24.09 | 28.95 | 95.46 |
| 2025-09-05 | 25.14 | 28.70 | 94.71 |
| 2025-09-12 | 23.51 | 28.39 | 93.97 |
| 2025-09-19 | 25.24 | 28.04 | 93.34 |
| 2025-09-26 | 24.49 | 27.83 | 92.74 |
| 2025-10-03 | 28.49 | 27.59 | 92.16 |
| 2025-10-10 | 26.83 | 27.33 | 91.47 |
| 2025-10-17 | 26.01 | 27.11 | 90.82 |
| 2025-10-24 | 26.74 | 26.96 | 90.02 |
| 2025-10-31 | 27.16 | 27.03 | 89.18 |
| 2025-11-07 | 24.54 | 26.98 | 88.24 |
| 2025-11-14 | 24.77 | 26.98 | 87.23 |
| 2025-11-21 | 23.72 | 26.86 | 86.26 |
| 2025-11-28 | 25.98 | 26.81 | 85.25 |
| 2025-12-05 | 27.70 | 26.92 | 84.29 |
| 2025-12-12 | 29.46 | 27.08 | 83.24 |
| 2025-12-19 | 33.80 | 27.33 | 82.18 |
| 2025-12-26 | 31.20 | 27.48 | 81.23 |
| 2026-01-02 | 30.86 | 27.60 | 80.27 |
| 2026-01-09 | 34.30 | 27.85 | 79.26 |
| 2026-01-16 | 41.83 | 28.38 | 78.29 |
| 2026-01-23 | 48.71 | 29.10 | 77.39 |
| 2026-01-30 | 44.07 | 29.55 | 76.56 |
| 2026-02-06 | 41.01 | 29.80 | 75.74 |
| 2026-02-13 | 42.23 | 30.16 | 74.94 |
| 2026-02-20 | 49.87 | 30.69 | 74.37 |
| 2026-02-27 | 53.57 | 31.55 | 73.79 |
| 2026-03-06 | 52.52 | 32.43 | 73.24 |
| 2026-03-13 | 52.56 | 33.25 | 72.62 |
| 2026-03-20 | 51.38 | 34.06 | 71.98 |
| 2026-03-27 | 49.56 | 34.91 | 71.31 |
| 2026-04-03 | 49.20 | 35.71 | 70.61 |
| 2026-04-10 | 50.96 | 36.63 | 69.93 |
| 2026-04-17 | 53.72 | 37.57 | 69.37 |
| 2026-04-24 | 50.73 | 38.45 | 68.85 |
| 2026-05-01 | 45.37 | 39.01 | 68.26 |
| 2026-05-08 | 54.35 | 39.93 | 67.78 |
| 2026-05-15 | 49.04 | 40.70 | 67.28 |
| 2026-05-22 | 46.88 | 41.37 | 66.78 |
| 2026-05-29 | 47.19 | 42.04 | 66.24 |
| 2026-06-05 | 47.44 | 42.80 | 65.76 |
| 2026-06-12 | 49.91 | 43.64 | 65.25 |
| 2026-06-19 | 63.96 | 44.98 | 64.90 |
| 2026-06-26 | 67.27 | 46.36 | 64.55 |
| 2026-07-03 | 79.76 | 48.09 | 64.30 |
| 2026-07-10 | 68.27 | 49.38 | 63.96 |
| 2026-07-17 | 61.82 | 50.32 | 63.55 |
| 2026-07-24 | 54.07 | 51.08 | 63.13 |
| 2026-07-31 | 54.82 | 51.88 | 62.79 |
| 2026-08-07 | 59.17 | 52.71 | 62.52 |
| 2026-08-14 | 63.32 | 53.42 | 62.28 |
| 2026-08-21 | 145.13 | 56.64 | 62.49 |
| 2026-08-28 | 137.99 | 59.77 | 62.65 |
| 2026-09-04 | 145.55 | 63.25 | 62.89 |
| 2026-09-11 | 143.97 | 66.64 | 63.08 |
| 2026-09-18 | 154.04 | 70.12 | 63.43 |
| 2026-09-25 | 198.88 | 74.96 | 64.04 |
4-week return
44.1%
13-week return
195.6%
26-week return
301.3%
52-week return
712.1%
From 52-week high
-1.9%
26-week volatility
192.6%
Scenario playbook
What would strengthen—or change—the view?
Start with the price condition. Then check the supporting evidence and the alternative count.
A mature move needs fresh evidence
Above USD 198.88The earlier confirmation is a reference for the completed advance or decline. It does not confirm a new move in the same direction.
Timing arrives; price does not turn
A projected window can pass without a reversal. Keep the count provisional if price has not confirmed; review the alternative count and the longer cycle.
Know what changes the view
Below USD 54.07A weekly close beyond this boundary conflicts with the selected count. Review a fresh count instead of extending the old explanation.
Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?
3 of 3 available degrees share the leading direction. These are different views of the same price series.
74/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction
95/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction
69/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction
02 · Wave count
How the wave count fits
The chart uses a 16.0% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.
Scenario comparison
Compare the possible patterns
Leading wave count
82% evidence weight
Five-wave advance mature
The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.
Confirm above 198.88
Fails below 54.07
Count stability High · 84/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 23.51; Wave 2 23.72.
PassWave 3 exceeds Wave 1Wave 1 28.49; Wave 3 79.76.
PassWave 4 does not overlap Wave 1Wave 1 boundary 28.49; Wave 4 54.07.
PassWave 3 is not the shortest motive waveMotive lengths: 4.98, 56.04, 144.81.
PassWave 5 makes motive progressWave 3 79.76; Wave 5 198.88.
GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 96% of Wave 1.
GuidelineWave 3 extension is plausibleWave 3 is 11.25× Wave 1.
GuidelineWave 4 retracement is proportionateRetraced 46% of Wave 3.
GuidelineWaves 2 and 4 show temporal alternationWave 2 lasted 7w; Wave 4 lasted 3w.
Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.
Primary degree uses a 16.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.
Tactical degree uses a 11.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.
9 weeks · Forming
Pivot from 2026-07-24
Price is above prior confirmed highs
Price is 165.3% from trend
Price is 210.5% from Fair Value
22.28 low · 202.67 high
03 · Supporting evidence
100% directional agreement
Where the evidence agrees or disagrees
7 readings are positive, 0 are negative and 0 are neutral. They describe current direction, not whether a mature move has finished.
Check whether the move is losing support.
Trend
165.3% above trend
Price is holding above its 30-week trend.
Cycle pressure
Rising
The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.
Cycle alignment
Rising Stack
Several cycle lengths are improving together.
Relative strength
+211.6
Outperforming its benchmark
Market activity
+98.5
Participation is supportive
Market dynamics
+1.6
Price and volume behaviour is supportive
30-week momentum
+271.3
Medium-term momentum is positive
7 constructive, 0 weak and 0 neutral measures.
Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.Market activity
Whether participation is supporting the move.
Participation is supportive.
Relative strength
Performance against the market benchmark.
Outperforming its benchmark.
30-week momentum
The pace of the medium-term price move.
Medium-term momentum is positive.
Market dynamics
A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.
Price and volume behaviour is supportive.
04 · Cycle timing
What cycle timing adds
Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.
Possible turning intervals
The timing map.
Estimated from 25 Sep 2026. Bands show model uncertainty, not confidence intervals or guaranteed turning dates.
Trough window Crest window
Now+25 weeks
10w bandEstimated 10w · Rising
28/100Repeat fit · 27.6 cycles of history
Trough: 2 Oct–30 Oct 2026 (+1–5w)Crest: 6 Nov–4 Dec 2026 (+6–10w)
20w bandEstimated 15w · Rising
26/100Repeat fit · 18.4 cycles of history
Trough: 16 Oct–11 Dec 2026 (+3–11w)Crest: 25 Sep–13 Nov 2026 (+0–7w)
40w bandEstimated 30w · Rising
9/100Repeat fit · 9.2 cycles of history
Trough: 27 Nov–19 Feb 2027 (+9–21w)Crest: 25 Dec–19 Mar 2027 (+13–25w)
80w bandEstimated 100w · Rising
No measurable positive repeat
0/100Repeat fit · 2.8 cycles of history
The best nearby repeat is selected from the same sample being described. Its fit is not an out-of-sample forecast score. When fewer than two estimated cycles are available the recent weekly history has gaps, or no positive repeat is measured, timing windows are withheld.
Cycle pressure is rising. That supports the recent upswing, but it does not establish how long it will last.
Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 28/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.
Current medium-term pressure direction
100/100 rising alignment · 0/100 falling alignment
Timing estimate, not a dated forecast
Timing estimate, not a dated forecast
Cycle pressure
Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.
Shorter and longer cycles
The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.
An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.
Typical / observed cycle10w / 10w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score28/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough7w
Possible next low1–5w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 15w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score26/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough8w
Possible next low3–11w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 30w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score9/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough15w
Possible next low9–21w
Typical / observed cycle80w / 100w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough65w
Possible next low-
05 · Risk
Risk behind the price move
Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.
Risk in context
How much room price has to move
Price is 55.7% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 1.9% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.
Largest contributors to the risk score
- Wave maturity
A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving.
- Trend extension
Price is 165.3% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability.
- Range position
Price is 98% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.
Downside risk check
61/100Elevated vulnerability
This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.
52-week low22.28
52-week high202.67
Based on the latest 26 weekly returns
Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks
From the highest close in the stored record
Of its trailing 20-week average
Drawdown history
Distance below the highest prior weekly close.
Realised volatility
Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.
Relative volume
Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.
06 · Market context
Sector trends and upcoming events
Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.
Most analysed peers have an upward wave count. That agrees with this report’s upward interpretation.
54% constructive
13 of 24 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.
25% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.Check the upcoming earnings date
Earnings: 2026-11-05 · about 6w away
Options: Volatility · 50/100 conviction · ±8.8% expected move
No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.
These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.| Peer-state horizon | Non-overlapping samples | Positive | Median | Median excess vs QQQ | Middle 80% of returns |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 weeks | 782 | 53% | 0.6% | 0.1% | -7.8% to 8.4% |
| 13 weeks | 290 | 53% | 1.2% | -1.7% | -13.3% to 19.3% |
| 26 weeks | 162 | 60% | 3.4% | -3.4% | -16.0% to 26.0% |
07 · History
56 similar weekly states
What happened after similar readings
After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was +1.7% across 55 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.
Typical return after a match
Median outcome after each matching historical week.
| Horizon | Matches | Positive | Median | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 weeks | 55 | 56% | 1.7% | -31.3% to 168.4% |
| 13 weeks | 48 | 48% | -3.1% | -51.7% to 140.8% |
| 26 weeks | 42 | 36% | -31.4% | -75.3% to 199.8% |
Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.
Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality100/100
This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.
- Weekly history
- 100/100
- Indicator coverage
- 100/100
- Confirmed structure
- 100/100
Rules and data notes
- Swing points use weekly closes and a 16.0% adaptive reversal threshold.
- The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
- Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
- Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
- Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
- These close-based impulse and A/B/C candidates do not exhaustively classify diagonals, triangles or complex corrections. Counts and historical cycle curves can be revised when adaptive thresholds or estimated periods change.
- Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail
Recent swing points
Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move. This is the current reconstruction; it is not a saved history of earlier published labels.
| Date | Status | Type | Price | Move | Duration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-15 | Confirmed | Low | 36.85 | -77.9% | 25 weeks |
| 2024-12-06 | Confirmed | High | 44.44 | 20.6% | 3 weeks |
| 2025-01-17 | Confirmed | Low | 34.06 | -23.4% | 6 weeks |
| 2025-01-24 | Confirmed | High | 41.41 | 21.6% | 1 weeks |
| 2025-05-09 | Confirmed | Low | 24.25 | -41.4% | 15 weeks |
| 2025-07-25 | Confirmed | High | 34.15 | 40.8% | 11 weeks |
| 2025-09-12 | Confirmed | Low | 23.51 | -31.2% | 7 weeks |
| 2025-10-03 | Confirmed | High | 28.49 | 21.2% | 3 weeks |
| 2025-11-21 | Confirmed | Low | 23.72 | -16.7% | 7 weeks |
| 2026-07-03 | Confirmed | High | 79.76 | 236.3% | 32 weeks |
| 2026-07-24 | Confirmed | Low | 54.07 | -32.2% | 3 weeks |
| 2026-09-25 | Forming | High | 198.88 | 267.8% | 9 weeks |
Follow the evidence
Test the view in related research.
Compare the same market from another angle. Shared price inputs can agree without providing independent confirmation.