Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Healthcare

MRNA Stage Analysis

Moderna Inc

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close USD 198.88Tenure DevelopingBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Re-accelerating

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction 94−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 96/100directional strength

Maturity 30/100lifecycle context

Confidence 76/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance +100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +210.5%USD 64.04 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	198.88	74.96	211.61	93330443	Upward Expansion	94	96
2026-09-18	154.04	70.12	162.64	67623311	Upward Expansion	77	91
2026-09-11	143.97	66.64	158.18	42241903	Upward Expansion	75	91
2026-09-04	145.55	63.25	170.28	89222561	Upward Expansion	84	94
2026-08-28	137.99	59.77	168.07	153636151	Upward Expansion	87	92
2026-08-21	145.13	56.64	194.97	384438729	Deceleration	87	80
2026-08-14	63.32	53.42	31.17	32223477	Deceleration	33	22
2026-08-07	59.17	52.71	25.32	26801006	Deceleration	27	22
2026-07-31	54.82	51.88	23.33	27172667	Upward Expansion	32	18
2026-07-24	54.07	51.08	23.40	22229082	Upward Expansion	53	40
2026-07-17	61.82	50.32	39.61	27907207	Upward Expansion	63	73
2026-07-10	68.27	49.38	49.25	46158841	Upward Expansion	65	79
2026-07-03	79.76	48.09	79.35	43270621	Upward Expansion	89	88
2026-06-26	67.27	46.36	55.29	48137126	Upward Expansion	79	72
2026-06-19	63.96	44.98	43.05	55919396	Deceleration	73	46
2026-06-12	49.91	43.64	15.97	24569433	Deceleration	21	12
2026-06-05	47.44	42.80	13.45	31596028	Deceleration	18	13
2026-05-29	47.19	42.04	8.31	18646774	Deceleration	21	12
2026-05-22	46.88	41.37	11.17	24241315	Deceleration	33	16
2026-05-15	49.04	40.70	18.23	59059810	Deceleration	38	22
2026-05-08	54.35	39.93	31.53	46234681	Deceleration	62	36
2026-05-01	45.37	39.01	16.86	31510561	Deceleration	40	28
2026-04-24	50.73	38.45	33.16	23926519	Upward Expansion	45	35
2026-04-17	53.72	37.57	45.02	35552010	Upward Expansion	63	41
2026-04-10	50.96	36.63	47.41	23362935	Upward Expansion	47	35
2026-04-03	49.20	35.71	49.96	25592480	Upward Expansion	57	42
2026-03-27	49.56	34.91	58.40	26217687	Upward Expansion	61	51
2026-03-20	51.38	34.06	60.10	41602019	Upward Expansion	64	57
2026-03-13	52.56	33.25	61.69	40884897	Upward Expansion	67	65
2026-03-06	52.52	32.43	60.85	68173262	Upward Expansion	72	62
2026-02-27	53.57	31.55	62.88	41297109	Upward Expansion	82	65
2026-02-20	49.87	30.69	52.71	44721508	Upward Expansion	79	62
2026-02-13	42.23	30.16	31.46	56489648	Upward Expansion	65	65
2026-02-06	41.01	29.80	26.43	53913273	Upward Expansion	66	82
2026-01-30	44.07	29.55	33.42	58844839	Upward Expansion	74	88
2026-01-23	48.71	29.10	47.00	89305931	Upward Expansion	93	92
2026-01-16	41.83	28.38	26.52	75752962	Upward Expansion	90	84
2026-01-09	34.30	27.85	2.91	61356135	Rotation Up	75	75
2026-01-02	30.86	27.60	-6.35	30123437	Rotation Up	34	59
2025-12-26	31.20	27.48	-7.98	34224499	Rotation Up	34	54
2025-12-19	33.80	27.33	-0.04	65477840	Balance	39	47
2025-12-12	29.46	27.08	-13.05	50190290	Balance	18	14
2025-12-05	27.70	26.92	-20.66	52803358	Balance	-32	16
2025-11-28	25.98	26.81	-25.87	27065566	Balance	-48	39
2025-11-21	23.72	26.86	-29.99	58535981	Balance	-56	42
2025-11-14	24.77	26.98	-30.12	49188185	Balance	-49	27
2025-11-07	24.54	26.98	-31.64	66254838	Balance	-50	22
2025-10-31	27.16	27.03	-27.87	88690671	Balance	-25	13
2025-10-24	26.74	26.96	-29.19	40741933	Balance	-0	8
2025-10-17	26.01	27.11	-31.02	42759117	Downward Expansion	-31	16
2025-10-10	26.83	27.33	-28.58	43721633	Downward Expansion	-34	15
2025-10-03	28.49	27.59	-27.48	53453826	Downward Expansion	-31	21
2025-09-26	24.49	27.83	-38.31	53363480	Downward Expansion	-58	47
2025-09-19	25.24	28.04	-38.39	69651430	Downward Expansion	-59	56
2025-09-12	23.51	28.39	-42.90	74163875	Downward Expansion	-69	64
2025-09-05	25.14	28.70	-39.54	45696544	Balance	-61	53
2025-08-29	24.09	28.95	-43.30	63742617	Balance	-58	41
2025-08-22	27.12	29.46	-38.28	33292788	Balance	-41	32
2025-08-15	28.02	29.94	-38.74	44853478	Balance	-30	18
2025-08-08	26.12	30.14	-44.44	38860244	Rotation Up	-34	16
2025-08-01	27.60	30.68	-41.09	50736582	Rotation Up	12	28
2025-07-25	34.15	31.16	-30.99	38501113	Balance	36	54
2025-07-18	31.26	31.36	-39.01	35602008	Balance	2	23
2025-07-11	33.64	31.63	-36.22	55952240	Balance	13	21
2025-07-04	30.49	31.91	-44.49	46410796	Downward Expansion	-20	13
2025-06-27	27.16	32.37	-51.56	41533389	Downward Expansion	-37	23
2025-06-20	25.90	32.90	-53.63	40294782	Downward Expansion	-43	28
2025-06-13	26.67	33.41	-54.18	42015507	Downward Expansion	-42	29
2025-06-06	27.46	33.75	-55.00	52485211	Downward Expansion	-44	34
2025-05-30	26.56	34.39	-57.52	63521878	Downward Expansion	-56	43
2025-05-23	26.26	35.33	-58.94	90669405	Downward Expansion	-58	45
2025-05-16	24.86	36.22	-63.79	63501605	Downward Expansion	-64	50
2025-05-09	24.25	37.20	-63.57	58704021	Downward Expansion	-70	61
2025-05-02	27.61	38.33	-59.83	41165831	Downward Expansion	-62	65
2025-04-25	27.22	39.42	-60.29	32876365	Downward Expansion	-65	75
2025-04-18	24.72	40.70	-62.60	25663002	Downward Expansion	-73	76
2025-04-11	26.20	42.07	-62.18	58969882	Downward Expansion	-70	64
2025-04-04	25.11	43.47	-61.92	72782874	Downward Expansion	-76	52
2025-03-28	31.12	45.07	-58.36	37302639	Downward Expansion	-61	41
2025-03-21	32.66	46.61	-58.20	33983320	Downward Expansion	-60	43
2025-03-14	34.62	48.27	-56.46	48622789	Downward Expansion	-56	42
2025-03-07	35.61	50.01	-57.15	65301322	Downward Expansion	-60	48
2025-02-28	30.96	51.65	-64.61	45600534	Downward Expansion	-72	64
2025-02-21	35.53	53.51	-61.43	61876540	Downward Expansion	-62	53
2025-02-14	32.99	56.39	-65.57	69410401	Downward Expansion	-71	57
2025-02-07	32.60	59.33	-65.53	64428897	Downward Expansion	-75	58
2025-01-31	39.42	62.29	-58.88	58845115	Downward Expansion	-59	48
2025-01-24	41.41	64.92	-58.07	60459282	Downward Expansion	-60	51
2025-01-17	34.06	67.50	-65.57	70846258	Downward Expansion	-81	67
2025-01-10	42.25	70.81	-56.83	50929353	Downward Expansion	-63	62
2025-01-03	42.18	74.07	-58.58	23957749	Downward Expansion	-64	64
2024-12-27	40.13	77.70	-61.64	16695012	Downward Expansion	-69	66
2024-12-20	39.39	81.11	-62.61	65858552	Downward Expansion	-75	69
2024-12-13	41.83	85.35	-61.75	33493127	Downward Expansion	-68	67
2024-12-06	44.44	88.39	-59.56	35863217	Downward Expansion	-67	67
2024-11-29	43.06	90.82	-59.98	31745607	Downward Expansion	-68	68
2024-11-22	41.11	93.55	-61.91	52741424	Downward Expansion	-78	91
2024-11-15	36.85	95.78	-65.60	71601058	Downward Expansion	-93	96
2024-11-08	46.83	97.93	-58.25	52257903	Downward Expansion	-85	93
2024-11-01	54.63	99.87	-49.05	24183480	Downward Expansion	-71	89
2024-10-25	53.09	101.48	-51.70	19412237	Downward Expansion	-76	83
2024-10-18	54.10	103.26	-51.13	22885253	Downward Expansion	-79	87
2024-10-11	58.29	104.98	-47.76	22499972	Downward Expansion	-77	86
2024-10-04	60.20	106.49	-46.08	24492087	Downward Expansion	-78	85
2024-09-27	65.75	107.92	-41.84	24815600	Downward Expansion	-74	87
2024-09-20	65.69	108.90	-42.03	33823490	Downward Expansion	-78	89
2024-09-13	68.28	109.92	-39.57	48312834	Downward Expansion	-80	91
2024-09-06	72.89	110.59	-32.57	15377589	Rotation Down	-79	91
2024-08-30	77.40	111.08	-33.23	15867164	Rotation Down	-49	79
2024-08-23	82.44	111.75	-30.19	19563367	Rotation Down	-46	75
2024-08-16	86.84	112.39	-26.49	16006729	Rotation Down	-35	64
2024-08-09	84.93	112.82	-24.77	23505335	Deceleration	-41	57
2024-08-02	86.58	113.52	-23.56	36809214	Deceleration	-41	34
2024-07-26	122.11	114.34	3.71	11394123	Deceleration	11	15
2024-07-19	121.14	113.59	-0.13	12766651	Deceleration	20	23
2024-07-12	121.46	112.71	-4.43	16218895	Deceleration	25	25
2024-07-05	118.32	111.53	-7.69	12070573	Deceleration	30	23
2024-06-28	118.75	110.26	-4.68	23332461	Upward Expansion	42	30
2024-06-21	133.40	108.97	6.36	16126772	Upward Expansion	62	51
2024-06-14	140.03	107.14	11.46	16797039	Upward Expansion	67	77
2024-06-07	151.01	105.02	23.87	17928356	Upward Expansion	75	88
2024-05-31	142.55	102.32	19.90	23991129	Upward Expansion	69	86
2024-05-24	166.61	100.15	37.37	33853266	Upward Expansion	96	97
2024-05-17	132.90	96.99	11.07	16411536	Upward Expansion	85	83
2024-05-10	117.31	95.24	-0.41	16960608	Upward Expansion	66	64
2024-05-03	125.00	94.61	6.68	26151891	Upward Expansion	81	58
2024-04-26	107.97	93.91	-7.82	14067377	Upward Expansion	59	33
2024-04-19	101.41	93.75	-11.04	10907185	Upward Expansion	52	32
2024-04-12	105.14	93.70	-13.96	20125166	Upward Expansion	57	49
2024-04-05	102.88	94.02	-17.69	15831981	Upward Expansion	56	58
2024-03-29	106.56	94.18	-16.93	16257063	Upward Expansion	63	62
2024-03-22	105.43	94.38	-19.54	14795810	Balance	60	55
2024-03-15	103.85	94.59	-19.69	28952268	Balance	29	29
2024-03-08	103.03	94.52	-22.53	17199210	Balance	17	10
2024-03-01	95.06	94.47	-30.67	19752193	Balance	-3	11
2024-02-23	96.46	94.90	-29.41	22785848	Balance	-2	12
2024-02-16	88.37	95.64	-35.42	20279746	Balance	-19	19
2024-02-09	87.41	96.91	-38.38	20250447	Rotation Up	-13	12
2024-02-02	97.50	98.04	-31.48	15304632	Rotation Up	19	24
2024-01-26	101.81	98.76	-28.98	13812095	Rotation Up	24	48
2024-01-19	99.70	99.41	-31.59	18030382	Rotation Up	25	40
2024-01-12	105.95	100.04	-27.08	23082324	Rotation Up	29	40
2024-01-05	111.12	100.80	-22.85	38336209	Downward Expansion	21	33
2023-12-29	99.45	101.20	-34.48	19003814	Downward Expansion	-8	19
2023-12-22	94.89	102.24	-38.66	27689178	Downward Expansion	-29	22
2023-12-15	86.01	103.28	-45.31	52149751	Downward Expansion	-43	33
2023-12-08	80.32	104.63	-48.48	16080710	Downward Expansion	-49	45
2023-12-01	79.83	106.26	-49.55	15043328	Downward Expansion	-63	58
2023-11-24	78.52	108.17	-51.30	10618006	Downward Expansion	-65	70
2023-11-17	76.44	109.98	-53.07	17836921	Downward Expansion	-68	85
2023-11-10	70.05	112.12	-57.00	22160190	Downward Expansion	-81	92
2023-11-03	77.53	115.03	-51.91	37674384	Downward Expansion	-77	90
2023-10-27	71.91	117.72	-53.30	20257490	Downward Expansion	-92	93
2023-10-20	80.40	120.44	-49.88	34316020	Downward Expansion	-88	82
2023-10-13	98.30	122.79	-41.12	13648923	Downward Expansion	-72	62
2023-10-06	103.88	124.51	-38.32	13414874	Downward Expansion	-60	45

Price vs TrendAbove+165.3%

Trend directionRising+49.0%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+210.5%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+206.3%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+211.6%

Relative strength directionImproving+156.3%

Price momentumPositive+301.3%

Volume balanceDemand-led2.62×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

94 / ±100

+6.8 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

96 /100

+3.4 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

MRNA Directional State ↗ MRNA Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance6

Rotation Up90

Upward Expansion99

Deceleration39

Rotation Down8

Downward Expansion21

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 14%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 26%Deceleration 11%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 40%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-08-28	2026-09-25	Developing	+44.1%
Deceleration	2026-08-07	2026-08-21	New	+145.3%
Upward Expansion	2026-06-26	2026-07-31	Developing	-18.5%
Deceleration	2026-05-01	2026-06-19	Developing	+41.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-16	2026-04-24	Established	+21.3%
Rotation Up	2025-12-26	2026-01-09	New	+9.9%
Balance	2025-10-24	2025-12-19	Developing	+26.4%
Downward Expansion	2025-09-12	2025-10-17	Developing	+10.6%
Balance	2025-08-15	2025-09-05	New	-10.3%
Rotation Up	2025-08-01	2025-08-08	New	-5.4%
Balance	2025-07-11	2025-07-25	New	+1.5%
Downward Expansion	2024-09-13	2025-07-04	Extended	-55.3%
Rotation Down	2024-08-16	2024-09-06	New	-16.1%
Deceleration	2024-07-05	2024-08-09	Developing	-28.2%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing18

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution52

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2C · Late advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 98/100
Current Relative Strength: 211.61
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +301.3%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +269.0%
Healthcare regime cohort: 91th percentile198 in cohort

Test MRNA trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.42×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume2.62×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution4 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore MRNA Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 164.77rising

Slow Activity USD 92.24rising

Trend Reference USD 74.96+165.3% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 64.04+210.5% close margin

Structural low USD 43.68shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +12.8%

Annualized volatility +135.1%

From structural high -1.9%

From structural low +792.6%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	19	+1.2%-26.5% to +168.4%	+63.2%	+63.2%	-3.0%	+73.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	+11.4%-44.6% to +31.0%	+57.1%	+57.1%	+3.4%	+57.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	-18.3%-38.3% to +47.8%	+25.0%	+25.0%	-30.9%	+25.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	-56.2%-70.8% to -24.3%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-77.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

MRNA Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map