Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.
ASX · Financial Services · Weekly analysis
NABWave & cycle analysis
National Australia Bank Limited
Current reading
The wave count points to a decline
The selected pattern describes a move downward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.
89/100 Setup score
100/100 Data quality
Watching Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report
Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.
Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.
Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.
01 · Price & key levels
The pattern and the prices to watch
6 of 7 available readings support the downward wave interpretation; 1 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.
The leading count changed 2 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.
Weekly price and wave pattern
Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.
Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern
The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.
Reading the chart
Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move. A confirmed turn means price reversed far enough to establish that swing point. It does not confirm what price will do next.
The green line is the trend reference. Fair Value provides price context. Dashed confirmation and failure levels describe the selected count; they are not price targets.
Weekly chart values
| Week ending | Close | 30-week trend | Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-06 | 25.15 | 23.77 | 22.75 |
| 2023-10-13 | 25.48 | 23.82 | 22.82 |
| 2023-10-20 | 24.90 | 23.89 | 22.88 |
| 2023-10-27 | 24.68 | 23.93 | 22.95 |
| 2023-11-03 | 25.25 | 23.99 | 23.02 |
| 2023-11-10 | 24.73 | 24.02 | 23.07 |
| 2023-11-17 | 24.82 | 24.03 | 23.12 |
| 2023-11-24 | 25.03 | 24.06 | 23.17 |
| 2023-12-01 | 25.45 | 24.16 | 23.22 |
| 2023-12-08 | 26.14 | 24.27 | 23.27 |
| 2023-12-15 | 27.01 | 24.39 | 23.33 |
| 2023-12-22 | 27.20 | 24.54 | 23.39 |
| 2023-12-29 | 27.48 | 24.71 | 23.45 |
| 2024-01-05 | 27.35 | 24.89 | 23.51 |
| 2024-01-12 | 27.67 | 25.06 | 23.57 |
| 2024-01-19 | 28.00 | 25.25 | 23.63 |
| 2024-01-26 | 28.45 | 25.43 | 23.70 |
| 2024-02-02 | 28.87 | 25.65 | 23.76 |
| 2024-02-09 | 28.97 | 25.84 | 23.82 |
| 2024-02-16 | 29.60 | 26.02 | 23.89 |
| 2024-02-23 | 30.31 | 26.20 | 23.96 |
| 2024-03-01 | 30.47 | 26.41 | 24.03 |
| 2024-03-08 | 31.43 | 26.63 | 24.10 |
| 2024-03-15 | 30.26 | 26.84 | 24.17 |
| 2024-03-22 | 31.11 | 27.07 | 24.24 |
| 2024-03-29 | 31.00 | 27.26 | 24.31 |
| 2024-04-05 | 30.73 | 27.46 | 24.38 |
| 2024-04-12 | 30.57 | 27.62 | 24.44 |
| 2024-04-19 | 29.59 | 27.77 | 24.50 |
| 2024-04-26 | 29.99 | 27.92 | 24.56 |
| 2024-05-03 | 30.79 | 28.11 | 24.63 |
| 2024-05-10 | 31.01 | 28.30 | 24.69 |
| 2024-05-17 | 31.67 | 28.52 | 24.76 |
| 2024-05-24 | 31.15 | 28.74 | 24.83 |
| 2024-05-31 | 31.11 | 28.93 | 24.89 |
| 2024-06-07 | 32.32 | 29.18 | 24.96 |
| 2024-06-14 | 32.12 | 29.43 | 25.03 |
| 2024-06-21 | 33.22 | 29.70 | 25.11 |
| 2024-06-28 | 33.23 | 29.96 | 25.20 |
| 2024-07-05 | 32.41 | 30.17 | 25.27 |
| 2024-07-12 | 33.89 | 30.40 | 25.36 |
| 2024-07-19 | 34.16 | 30.63 | 25.45 |
| 2024-07-26 | 34.32 | 30.86 | 25.54 |
| 2024-08-02 | 33.48 | 31.06 | 25.62 |
| 2024-08-09 | 32.68 | 31.23 | 25.69 |
| 2024-08-16 | 33.46 | 31.41 | 25.76 |
| 2024-08-23 | 33.88 | 31.59 | 25.84 |
| 2024-08-30 | 35.01 | 31.80 | 25.92 |
| 2024-09-06 | 35.82 | 32.03 | 26.01 |
| 2024-09-13 | 35.11 | 32.21 | 26.09 |
| 2024-09-20 | 36.39 | 32.41 | 26.19 |
| 2024-09-27 | 33.88 | 32.53 | 26.27 |
| 2024-10-04 | 33.42 | 32.59 | 26.34 |
| 2024-10-11 | 34.20 | 32.72 | 26.41 |
| 2024-10-18 | 35.94 | 32.89 | 26.50 |
| 2024-10-25 | 35.73 | 33.04 | 26.58 |
| 2024-11-01 | 35.05 | 33.19 | 26.66 |
| 2024-11-08 | 36.37 | 33.38 | 26.75 |
| 2024-11-15 | 36.76 | 33.62 | 26.84 |
| 2024-11-22 | 37.55 | 33.87 | 26.93 |
| 2024-11-29 | 36.64 | 34.07 | 27.02 |
| 2024-12-06 | 36.36 | 34.24 | 27.11 |
| 2024-12-13 | 35.21 | 34.36 | 27.19 |
| 2024-12-20 | 34.09 | 34.46 | 27.26 |
| 2024-12-27 | 35.22 | 34.60 | 27.33 |
| 2025-01-03 | 35.19 | 34.69 | 27.41 |
| 2025-01-10 | 35.57 | 34.81 | 27.49 |
| 2025-01-17 | 35.41 | 34.88 | 27.57 |
| 2025-01-24 | 36.93 | 35.00 | 27.66 |
| 2025-01-31 | 37.62 | 35.18 | 27.76 |
| 2025-02-07 | 38.14 | 35.32 | 27.85 |
| 2025-02-14 | 38.42 | 35.46 | 27.94 |
| 2025-02-21 | 32.88 | 35.41 | 28.00 |
| 2025-02-28 | 33.08 | 35.40 | 28.06 |
| 2025-03-07 | 32.11 | 35.38 | 28.12 |
| 2025-03-14 | 31.21 | 35.31 | 28.16 |
| 2025-03-21 | 31.10 | 35.21 | 28.19 |
| 2025-03-28 | 32.02 | 35.11 | 28.23 |
| 2025-04-04 | 31.58 | 34.97 | 28.27 |
| 2025-04-11 | 31.15 | 34.84 | 28.30 |
| 2025-04-18 | 31.86 | 34.69 | 28.33 |
| 2025-04-25 | 32.91 | 34.66 | 28.37 |
| 2025-05-02 | 34.20 | 34.68 | 28.43 |
| 2025-05-09 | 34.24 | 34.68 | 28.49 |
| 2025-05-16 | 35.51 | 34.67 | 28.55 |
| 2025-05-23 | 36.17 | 34.69 | 28.61 |
| 2025-05-30 | 36.46 | 34.73 | 28.68 |
| 2025-06-06 | 37.02 | 34.75 | 28.77 |
| 2025-06-13 | 37.30 | 34.77 | 28.88 |
| 2025-06-20 | 37.34 | 34.76 | 28.97 |
| 2025-06-27 | 37.67 | 34.80 | 29.07 |
| 2025-07-04 | 37.57 | 34.84 | 29.16 |
| 2025-07-11 | 38.01 | 34.93 | 29.26 |
| 2025-07-18 | 37.60 | 35.05 | 29.34 |
| 2025-07-25 | 35.99 | 35.08 | 29.41 |
| 2025-08-01 | 36.88 | 35.13 | 29.48 |
| 2025-08-08 | 36.93 | 35.18 | 29.56 |
| 2025-08-15 | 37.60 | 35.25 | 29.64 |
| 2025-08-22 | 40.75 | 35.38 | 29.74 |
| 2025-08-29 | 41.06 | 35.49 | 29.84 |
| 2025-09-05 | 41.42 | 35.60 | 29.95 |
| 2025-09-12 | 41.78 | 35.71 | 30.06 |
| 2025-09-19 | 42.02 | 36.02 | 30.17 |
| 2025-09-26 | 41.87 | 36.31 | 30.29 |
| 2025-10-03 | 42.80 | 36.67 | 30.40 |
| 2025-10-10 | 42.24 | 37.04 | 30.51 |
| 2025-10-17 | 41.55 | 37.38 | 30.61 |
| 2025-10-24 | 41.50 | 37.70 | 30.71 |
| 2025-10-31 | 41.86 | 38.04 | 30.81 |
| 2025-11-07 | 41.68 | 38.39 | 30.91 |
| 2025-11-14 | 40.60 | 38.68 | 31.00 |
| 2025-11-21 | 39.70 | 38.91 | 31.09 |
| 2025-11-28 | 39.25 | 39.08 | 31.17 |
| 2025-12-05 | 39.99 | 39.27 | 31.26 |
| 2025-12-12 | 41.24 | 39.46 | 31.36 |
| 2025-12-19 | 41.25 | 39.63 | 31.46 |
| 2025-12-26 | 41.53 | 39.80 | 31.57 |
| 2026-01-02 | 41.50 | 39.95 | 31.67 |
| 2026-01-09 | 40.15 | 40.04 | 31.76 |
| 2026-01-16 | 41.76 | 40.19 | 31.86 |
| 2026-01-23 | 41.45 | 40.32 | 31.95 |
| 2026-01-30 | 42.45 | 40.48 | 32.05 |
| 2026-02-06 | 42.44 | 40.63 | 32.15 |
| 2026-02-13 | 45.03 | 40.88 | 32.28 |
| 2026-02-20 | 47.29 | 41.25 | 32.42 |
| 2026-02-27 | 47.98 | 41.62 | 32.57 |
| 2026-03-06 | 45.83 | 41.92 | 32.71 |
| 2026-03-13 | 46.11 | 42.20 | 32.85 |
| 2026-03-20 | 44.60 | 42.33 | 32.99 |
| 2026-03-27 | 41.10 | 42.33 | 33.11 |
| 2026-04-03 | 40.91 | 42.31 | 33.22 |
| 2026-04-10 | 44.40 | 42.40 | 33.35 |
| 2026-04-17 | 41.65 | 42.39 | 33.46 |
| 2026-04-24 | 39.23 | 42.30 | 33.56 |
| 2026-05-01 | 38.98 | 42.17 | 33.66 |
| 2026-05-08 | 38.36 | 42.05 | 33.76 |
| 2026-05-15 | 36.52 | 41.88 | 33.85 |
| 2026-05-22 | 37.85 | 41.76 | 33.94 |
| 2026-05-29 | 37.33 | 41.61 | 34.04 |
| 2026-06-05 | 36.59 | 41.44 | 34.13 |
| 2026-06-12 | 36.50 | 41.30 | 34.22 |
| 2026-06-19 | 37.74 | 41.23 | 34.32 |
| 2026-06-26 | 37.51 | 41.18 | 34.41 |
| 2026-07-03 | 38.57 | 41.13 | 34.52 |
| 2026-07-10 | 39.61 | 41.07 | 34.62 |
| 2026-07-17 | 39.85 | 41.03 | 34.72 |
| 2026-07-24 | 40.39 | 40.99 | 34.82 |
| 2026-07-31 | 41.33 | 40.98 | 34.93 |
| 2026-08-07 | 42.23 | 41.05 | 35.04 |
| 2026-08-14 | 41.37 | 41.04 | 35.15 |
| 2026-08-21 | 38.17 | 40.93 | 35.24 |
| 2026-08-28 | 38.29 | 40.79 | 35.33 |
| 2026-09-04 | 39.25 | 40.69 | 35.42 |
| 2026-09-11 | 38.72 | 40.48 | 35.50 |
| 2026-09-18 | 38.47 | 40.18 | 35.59 |
| 2026-09-25 | 38.54 | 39.87 | 35.67 |
4-week return
0.7%
13-week return
2.7%
26-week return
-6.2%
52-week return
-8.0%
From 52-week high
-20.4%
26-week volatility
24.5%
Scenario playbook
What would strengthen—or change—the view?
Start with the price condition. Then check the supporting evidence and the alternative count.
Wait for price confirmation
Below AUD 38.17The count needs a weekly close beyond this reference, with supporting price and cycle evidence.
Timing arrives; price does not turn
A projected window can pass without a reversal. Keep the count provisional if price has not confirmed; review the alternative count and the longer cycle.
Know what changes the view
Above AUD 42.23A weekly close beyond this boundary conflicts with the selected count. Review a fresh count instead of extending the old explanation.
Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?
3 of 3 available degrees share the leading direction. These are different views of the same price series.
58/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction
58/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction
58/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction
02 · Wave count
How the wave count fits
The chart uses a 5.2% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.
Scenario comparison
Compare the possible patterns
Leading wave count
33% evidence weight
Possible bearish Wave 2 crest
The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.
Confirm below 38.17
Fails above 42.23
Count stability Moderate · 68/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 42.23; Wave 2 38.54.
GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 9% of Wave 1.
Strategic degree uses a 8.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.
Primary degree uses a 5.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.
Tactical degree uses a 3.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.
5 weeks · Forming
Pivot from 2026-08-21
Pivot from 2026-08-07
Price is -3.3% from trend
Price is 8.0% from Fair Value
36.00 low · 48.40 high
03 · Supporting evidence
86% directional agreement
Where the evidence agrees or disagrees
6 of 7 available readings support the downward wave interpretation; 1 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.
The other readings support this direction. 6 readings support the selected direction; 1 lean against it.
Trend
3.3% below trend
Price remains below its 30-week trend.
Cycle pressure
Falling
The medium-term pressure curve is not rising.
Cycle alignment
Falling Stack
Several cycle lengths are weakening together.
Relative strength
-4.0
Underperforming its benchmark
Market activity
-23.5
Participation is weak
Market dynamics
+0.4
Price and volume behaviour is supportive
30-week momentum
-19.7
Medium-term momentum is negative
1 constructive, 6 weak and 0 neutral measures.
Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.Market activity
Whether participation is supporting the move.
Participation is weak. This supports the downward wave view.
Relative strength
Performance against the market benchmark.
Underperforming its benchmark. This supports the downward wave view.
30-week momentum
The pace of the medium-term price move.
Medium-term momentum is negative. This supports the downward wave view.
Market dynamics
A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.
Price and volume behaviour is supportive. This challenges the downward wave view.
04 · Cycle timing
What cycle timing adds
Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.
Possible turning intervals
The timing map.
Estimated from 25 Sep 2026. Bands show model uncertainty, not confidence intervals or guaranteed turning dates.
Trough window Crest window
Now+20 weeks
10w bandEstimated 12w · Falling
No measurable positive repeat
0/100Repeat fit · 23.0 cycles of history
20w bandEstimated 21w · Falling
7/100Repeat fit · 13.1 cycles of history
Trough: 2 Oct–11 Dec 2026 (+1–11w)Crest: 4 Dec–12 Feb 2027 (+10–20w)
40w bandEstimated 30w · Falling
No measurable positive repeat
0/100Repeat fit · 9.2 cycles of history
80w bandEstimated 74w · Falling
No measurable positive repeat
0/100Repeat fit · 3.7 cycles of history
The best nearby repeat is selected from the same sample being described. Its fit is not an out-of-sample forecast score. When fewer than two estimated cycles are available the recent weekly history has gaps, or no positive repeat is measured, timing windows are withheld.
Cycle pressure is falling. A recovery in price needs support from the other readings.
Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 7/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.
Current medium-term pressure direction
6/100 rising alignment · 96/100 falling alignment
Timing estimate, not a dated forecast
Timing estimate, not a dated forecast
Cycle pressure
Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.
Shorter and longer cycles
The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.
An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.
Typical / observed cycle10w / 12w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough19w
Possible next low-
Typical / observed cycle20w / 21w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score7/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough15w
Possible next low1–11w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 30w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough14w
Possible next low-
Typical / observed cycle80w / 74w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough9w
Possible next low-
05 · Risk
Risk behind the price move
Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.
Risk in context
How much room price has to move
Price is 19.7% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 20.4% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.
Largest contributors to the risk score
- Multi-cycle risk
Hurst risk alignment is 96/100.
- Cycle rollover
Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.
- Count instability
The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability.
Downside risk check
28/100Contained
This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.
52-week low36.00
52-week high48.40
Based on the latest 26 weekly returns
Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks
From the highest close in the stored record
Of its trailing 20-week average
Drawdown history
Distance below the highest prior weekly close.
Realised volatility
Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.
Relative volume
Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.
06 · Market context
Sector trends and upcoming events
Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.
Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.
50% constructive
12 of 24 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.
8% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.Event information is limited
No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.
These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.| Peer-state horizon | Non-overlapping samples | Positive | Median | Median excess vs ^AXJO | Middle 80% of returns |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 weeks | 147 | 57% | 1.8% | 1.7% | -7.2% to 10.6% |
| 13 weeks | 100 | 68% | 4.4% | 3.3% | -6.7% to 16.0% |
| 26 weeks | 73 | 62% | 3.6% | 1.6% | -10.9% to 23.4% |
07 · History
36 similar weekly states
What happened after similar readings
After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was +0.6% across 35 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.
Typical return after a match
Median outcome after each matching historical week.
| Horizon | Matches | Positive | Median | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 weeks | 35 | 57% | 0.6% | -4.9% to 11.5% |
| 13 weeks | 34 | 79% | 8.3% | -10.4% to 22.0% |
| 26 weeks | 25 | 100% | 19.3% | 1.9% to 35.6% |
Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.
Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality100/100
This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.
- Weekly history
- 100/100
- Indicator coverage
- 100/100
- Confirmed structure
- 100/100
Rules and data notes
- Swing points use weekly closes and a 5.2% adaptive reversal threshold.
- The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
- Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
- Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
- Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
- These close-based impulse and A/B/C candidates do not exhaustively classify diagonals, triangles or complex corrections. Counts and historical cycle curves can be revised when adaptive thresholds or estimated periods change.
- Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail
Recent swing points
Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move. This is the current reconstruction; it is not a saved history of earlier published labels.
| Date | Status | Type | Price | Move | Duration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-21 | Confirmed | Low | 31.10 | -19.1% | 5 weeks |
| 2025-07-11 | Confirmed | High | 38.01 | 22.2% | 16 weeks |
| 2025-07-25 | Confirmed | Low | 35.99 | -5.3% | 2 weeks |
| 2025-10-03 | Confirmed | High | 42.80 | 18.9% | 10 weeks |
| 2025-11-28 | Confirmed | Low | 39.25 | -8.3% | 8 weeks |
| 2026-02-27 | Confirmed | High | 47.98 | 22.2% | 13 weeks |
| 2026-04-03 | Confirmed | Low | 40.91 | -14.7% | 5 weeks |
| 2026-04-10 | Confirmed | High | 44.40 | 8.5% | 1 weeks |
| 2026-06-12 | Confirmed | Low | 36.50 | -17.8% | 9 weeks |
| 2026-08-07 | Confirmed | High | 42.23 | 15.7% | 8 weeks |
| 2026-08-21 | Confirmed | Low | 38.17 | -9.6% | 2 weeks |
| 2026-09-25 | Forming | High | 38.54 | 1.0% | 5 weeks |
Follow the evidence
Test the view in related research.
Compare the same market from another angle. Shared price inputs can agree without providing independent confirmation.