Weekly structural research · ASX · Financial Services

NAB Stage Analysis

National Australia Bank Limited

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close AUD 38.54Tenure NewBenchmark ^AXJO

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Upper balance after advance

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction -54−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 34/100directional strength

Maturity 13/100lifecycle context

Confidence 70/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +8.0%AUD 35.67 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	38.54	39.87	-3.96	16053445	Balance	-54	34
2026-09-18	38.47	40.18	-4.99	37461825	Rotation Up	-45	36
2026-09-11	38.72	40.48	-4.63	21711598	Rotation Up	-41	38
2026-09-04	39.25	40.69	-6.28	26522888	Rotation Up	-30	29
2026-08-28	38.29	40.79	-9.55	17162044	Rotation Up	-36	19
2026-08-21	38.17	40.93	-9.64	6720233	Rotation Up	-17	30
2026-08-14	41.37	41.04	-2.80	3785022	Rotation Up	29	68
2026-08-07	42.23	41.05	-2.24	3701040	Rotation Up	46	65
2026-07-31	41.33	40.98	-1.12	5991313	Downward Expansion	18	37
2026-07-24	40.39	40.99	-0.97	3829590	Downward Expansion	-9	29
2026-07-17	39.85	41.03	-2.38	4296634	Downward Expansion	-32	31
2026-07-10	39.61	41.07	-2.98	3418032	Downward Expansion	-41	27
2026-07-03	38.57	41.13	-5.91	3649919	Downward Expansion	-48	41
2026-06-26	37.51	41.18	-7.66	5094411	Downward Expansion	-61	56
2026-06-19	37.74	41.23	-7.83	11265181	Downward Expansion	-63	59
2026-06-12	36.50	41.30	-10.65	5220961	Downward Expansion	-70	74
2026-06-05	36.59	41.44	-8.65	28945804	Downward Expansion	-72	79
2026-05-29	37.33	41.61	-7.98	16098426	Downward Expansion	-68	78
2026-05-22	37.85	41.76	-5.92	32737742	Rotation Down	-66	77
2026-05-15	36.52	41.88	-8.93	32559642	Rotation Down	-52	72
2026-05-08	38.36	42.05	-5.59	39433225	Rotation Down	-36	59
2026-05-01	38.98	42.17	-3.80	21628755	Rotation Down	-34	46
2026-04-24	39.23	42.30	-3.70	31798117	Deceleration	-34	33
2026-04-17	41.65	42.39	0.54	24937111	Deceleration	-9	22
2026-04-10	44.40	42.40	7.28	21583931	Deceleration	24	25
2026-04-03	40.91	42.31	3.63	25174115	Deceleration	5	19
2026-03-27	41.10	42.33	5.16	28889436	Upward Expansion	19	14
2026-03-20	44.60	42.33	15.71	31132253	Upward Expansion	61	52
2026-03-13	46.11	42.20	17.68	23216835	Upward Expansion	65	81
2026-03-06	45.83	41.92	14.51	20614022	Upward Expansion	67	85
2026-02-27	47.98	41.62	15.92	25604872	Upward Expansion	90	94
2026-02-20	47.29	41.25	16.32	26271242	Upward Expansion	93	89
2026-02-13	45.03	40.88	13.40	22808711	Upward Expansion	83	74
2026-02-06	42.44	40.63	9.70	19879865	Deceleration	61	53
2026-01-30	42.45	40.48	7.92	18881828	Deceleration	61	31
2026-01-23	41.45	40.32	5.67	13657566	Deceleration	48	23
2026-01-16	41.76	40.19	6.07	15554867	Deceleration	46	25
2026-01-09	40.15	40.04	4.34	14128696	Deceleration	25	17
2026-01-02	41.50	39.95	7.88	6784111	Deceleration	42	30
2025-12-26	41.53	39.80	7.75	7320499	Deceleration	40	24
2025-12-19	41.25	39.63	9.00	25767726	Deceleration	19	12
2025-12-12	41.24	39.46	8.29	18173879	Deceleration	14	18
2025-12-05	39.99	39.27	6.02	16495974	Deceleration	5	21
2025-11-28	39.25	39.08	4.44	21410679	Deceleration	-4	17
2025-11-21	39.70	38.91	8.22	21897922	Deceleration	21	17
2025-11-14	40.60	38.68	7.99	22394081	Deceleration	37	24
2025-11-07	41.68	38.39	9.29	32506164	Deceleration	43	32
2025-10-31	41.86	38.04	8.54	19826950	Upward Expansion	47	40
2025-10-24	41.50	37.70	6.17	17629467	Upward Expansion	60	51
2025-10-17	41.55	37.38	6.69	21334625	Upward Expansion	63	56
2025-10-10	42.24	37.04	9.04	17704972	Upward Expansion	66	63
2025-10-03	42.80	36.67	10.39	14479078	Upward Expansion	78	74
2025-09-26	41.87	36.31	10.80	21137145	Upward Expansion	70	81
2025-09-19	42.02	36.02	11.68	31951895	Upward Expansion	75	89
2025-09-12	41.78	35.71	10.07	17112778	Upward Expansion	77	91
2025-09-05	41.42	35.60	9.25	20790835	Upward Expansion	80	90
2025-08-29	41.06	35.49	7.15	20567648	Upward Expansion	84	85
2025-08-22	40.75	35.38	6.54	33367714	Deceleration	84	63
2025-08-15	37.60	35.25	-1.23	24010624	Deceleration	48	28
2025-08-08	36.93	35.18	-1.54	15147096	Deceleration	41	26
2025-08-01	36.88	35.13	-0.03	19372467	Upward Expansion	45	33
2025-07-25	35.99	35.08	-2.48	19800467	Upward Expansion	50	40
2025-07-18	37.60	35.05	0.75	27700092	Upward Expansion	65	56
2025-07-11	38.01	34.93	3.94	12608648	Upward Expansion	73	72
2025-07-04	37.57	34.84	2.54	19360801	Upward Expansion	68	66
2025-06-27	37.67	34.80	4.00	17754765	Rotation Up	73	77
2025-06-20	37.34	34.76	3.25	24217402	Rotation Up	45	72
2025-06-13	37.30	34.77	2.70	13816398	Rotation Up	40	71
2025-06-06	37.02	34.75	2.41	17114174	Rotation Up	42	70
2025-05-30	36.46	34.73	1.94	24408046	Rotation Up	39	60
2025-05-23	36.17	34.69	2.16	25890915	Downward Expansion	38	43
2025-05-16	35.51	34.67	0.63	27673118	Downward Expansion	-1	21
2025-05-09	34.24	34.68	-1.56	30446609	Downward Expansion	-24	22
2025-05-02	34.20	34.68	-1.68	26531526	Downward Expansion	-34	22
2025-04-25	32.91	34.66	-2.15	15047156	Downward Expansion	-48	39
2025-04-18	31.86	34.69	-3.39	13324408	Downward Expansion	-61	49
2025-04-11	31.15	34.84	-3.31	34990596	Downward Expansion	-69	57
2025-04-04	31.58	34.97	-2.18	23265429	Downward Expansion	-66	79
2025-03-28	32.02	35.11	-4.65	22923119	Downward Expansion	-67	84
2025-03-21	31.10	35.21	-6.78	37046145	Downward Expansion	-75	88
2025-03-14	31.21	35.31	-4.78	24584937	Rotation Down	-80	78
2025-03-07	32.11	35.38	-3.96	22050979	Rotation Down	-48	46
2025-02-28	33.08	35.40	-3.75	32202842	Rotation Down	-28	22
2025-02-21	32.88	35.41	-5.73	43227934	Rotation Down	20	17
2025-02-14	38.42	35.46	6.81	16837253	Upward Expansion	74	78
2025-02-07	38.14	35.32	6.92	17086005	Upward Expansion	74	72
2025-01-31	37.62	35.18	5.52	14083642	Balance	69	55
2025-01-24	36.93	35.00	5.42	12638180	Balance	49	26
2025-01-17	35.41	34.88	2.58	14749613	Balance	15	9
2025-01-10	35.57	34.81	3.48	15007978	Balance	11	16
2025-01-03	35.19	34.69	3.21	6930945	Balance	19	22
2024-12-27	35.22	34.60	3.45	5289455	Balance	23	21
2024-12-20	34.09	34.46	2.84	25034191	Upward Expansion	14	13
2024-12-13	35.21	34.36	3.60	14377105	Upward Expansion	53	35
2024-12-06	36.36	34.24	5.71	14439816	Upward Expansion	59	52
2024-11-29	36.64	34.07	6.67	21506299	Upward Expansion	61	66
2024-11-22	37.55	33.87	10.26	20565924	Upward Expansion	77	73
2024-11-15	36.76	33.62	9.81	23336447	Upward Expansion	71	66
2024-11-08	36.37	33.38	9.00	21181851	Upward Expansion	69	62
2024-11-01	35.05	33.19	7.76	16942379	Upward Expansion	52	38
2024-10-25	35.73	33.04	8.97	13308161	Deceleration	61	35
2024-10-18	35.94	32.89	9.05	19781304	Deceleration	55	26
2024-10-11	34.20	32.72	5.00	14129129	Upward Expansion	37	22
2024-10-04	33.42	32.59	3.70	20175140	Upward Expansion	42	30
2024-09-27	33.88	32.53	4.60	24331110	Upward Expansion	62	55
2024-09-20	36.39	32.41	12.66	30694116	Upward Expansion	82	86
2024-09-13	35.11	32.21	10.66	17867433	Upward Expansion	67	75
2024-09-06	35.82	32.03	14.55	19773748	Upward Expansion	82	74
2024-08-30	35.01	31.80	11.43	24675824	Upward Expansion	76	48
2024-08-23	33.88	31.59	9.20	16673911	Upward Expansion	53	34
2024-08-16	33.46	31.41	9.02	17478249	Upward Expansion	48	36
2024-08-09	32.68	31.23	9.59	25380295	Upward Expansion	59	46
2024-08-02	33.48	31.06	10.38	23920898	Upward Expansion	64	58
2024-07-26	34.32	30.86	13.96	15313578	Upward Expansion	76	71
2024-07-19	34.16	30.63	13.30	23671508	Upward Expansion	79	72
2024-07-12	33.89	30.40	13.15	15955177	Upward Expansion	81	74
2024-07-05	32.41	30.17	10.68	15185607	Upward Expansion	64	71
2024-06-28	33.23	29.96	14.87	19252364	Upward Expansion	78	84
2024-06-21	33.22	29.70	15.04	32591974	Upward Expansion	84	80
2024-06-14	32.12	29.43	12.94	20722650	Upward Expansion	71	65
2024-06-07	32.32	29.18	12.28	21229589	Upward Expansion	78	66
2024-05-31	31.11	28.93	10.90	19959905	Upward Expansion	59	46
2024-05-24	31.15	28.74	11.22	16517684	Upward Expansion	60	49
2024-05-17	31.67	28.52	12.33	22624952	Deceleration	73	50
2024-05-10	31.01	28.30	11.43	26706432	Deceleration	52	33
2024-05-03	30.79	28.11	12.87	18238279	Deceleration	48	30
2024-04-26	29.99	27.92	11.28	12852508	Deceleration	42	30
2024-04-19	29.59	27.77	10.29	20098105	Upward Expansion	47	41
2024-04-12	30.57	27.62	11.06	12395735	Upward Expansion	62	59
2024-04-05	30.73	27.46	12.26	15154188	Upward Expansion	65	63
2024-03-29	31.00	27.26	11.93	15023802	Upward Expansion	70	67
2024-03-22	31.11	27.07	14.57	29127952	Upward Expansion	76	70
2024-03-15	30.26	26.84	13.34	31146960	Upward Expansion	68	68
2024-03-08	31.43	26.63	15.39	22582882	Upward Expansion	92	93
2024-03-01	30.47	26.41	13.70	22298751	Upward Expansion	85	92
2024-02-23	30.31	26.20	14.97	19442865	Upward Expansion	91	95
2024-02-16	29.60	26.02	12.40	22876222	Upward Expansion	88	94
2024-02-09	28.97	25.84	10.49	20499824	Upward Expansion	82	92
2024-02-02	28.87	25.65	9.42	27455297	Upward Expansion	87	92
2024-01-26	28.45	25.43	10.03	15791789	Upward Expansion	84	88
2024-01-19	28.00	25.25	10.34	19216850	Upward Expansion	80	89
2024-01-12	27.67	25.06	8.04	14338705	Upward Expansion	76	90
2024-01-05	27.35	24.89	7.00	11811480	Upward Expansion	73	89
2023-12-29	27.48	24.71	6.13	6735419	Upward Expansion	83	92
2023-12-22	27.20	24.54	6.32	23848938	Upward Expansion	84	88
2023-12-15	27.01	24.39	6.43	32905781	Upward Expansion	84	79
2023-12-08	26.14	24.27	6.55	21991831	Deceleration	72	51
2023-12-01	25.45	24.16	5.59	22121682	Deceleration	57	28
2023-11-24	25.03	24.06	4.34	14599900	Deceleration	36	19
2023-11-17	24.82	24.03	3.26	26209926	Deceleration	34	17
2023-11-10	24.73	24.02	3.92	33929683	Deceleration	35	18
2023-11-03	25.25	23.99	6.06	22450666	Deceleration	43	27
2023-10-27	24.68	23.93	5.82	16869237	Deceleration	39	26
2023-10-20	24.90	23.89	5.46	25738088	Upward Expansion	53	36
2023-10-13	25.48	23.82	5.47	18918276	Upward Expansion	62	44
2023-10-06	25.15	23.77	5.45	22542938	Upward Expansion	59	52

Price vs TrendBelow-3.3%

Trend directionFalling-2.8%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+8.0%

Fair Value directionMoving away-1.0%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-4.0%

Relative strength directionImproving+3.7%

Price momentumNegative-6.2%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.21×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-54 / ±100

-17.4 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

34 /100

+14.5 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

NAB Directional State ↗ NAB Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance35

Rotation Up11

Upward Expansion2

Deceleration56

Rotation Down65

Downward Expansion78

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 5%Rotation Up 8%Upward Expansion 48%Deceleration 22%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 13%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-09-25	2026-09-25	New	+0.0%
Rotation Up	2026-08-07	2026-09-18	Developing	-8.9%
Downward Expansion	2026-05-29	2026-07-31	Developing	+10.7%
Rotation Down	2026-05-01	2026-05-22	New	-2.9%
Deceleration	2026-04-03	2026-04-24	New	-4.1%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-13	2026-03-27	Developing	-8.7%
Deceleration	2025-11-07	2026-02-06	Established	+1.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-29	2025-10-31	Developing	+1.9%
Deceleration	2025-08-08	2025-08-22	New	+10.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-04	2025-08-01	Developing	-1.8%
Rotation Up	2025-05-30	2025-06-27	Developing	+3.3%
Downward Expansion	2025-03-21	2025-05-23	Developing	+16.3%
Rotation Down	2025-02-21	2025-03-14	New	-5.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-07	2025-02-14	New	+0.7%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing53

Stage 2 · Advancing17

Stage 3 · Distribution43

Stage 4 · Declining83

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 62/100
Current Relative Strength: -3.96
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -6.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -8.0%
Financial Services regime cohort: 65th percentile23 in cohort

Test NAB trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.12×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.21×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore NAB Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity AUD 38.64falling

Slow Activity AUD 39.18falling

Trend Reference AUD 39.87-3.3% close margin

Current Fair Value AUD 35.67+8.0% close margin

Structural low AUD 36.00shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +3.6%

Annualized volatility +24.7%

From structural high -20.4%

From structural low +7.1%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Regime survived	Read
Near term	6	+0.5%-11.0% to +4.8%	+66.7%	+66.7%	-0.0%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	4	+1.0%-9.1% to +4.6%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+0.6%	+25.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	3	+7.0%+6.5% to +15.4%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+3.9%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	+17.9%-1.9% to +39.1%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+11.8%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

NAB Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map