ASX · Healthcare · Weekly analysis

CANWave & cycle analysis

Cann Group Limited

Latest close AUD 0.006 Week ending 9 Oct 2026 History 276 weeks

Current reading

The wave count points to an advance

The selected pattern describes a move upward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

95/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Watching Setup status

A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.

How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countPossible Wave 3 advancing

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings support this direction

5 of 7 available readings support the upward wave interpretation; 2 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

Main uncertaintyLow count stability

The leading count changed 5 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values

Prices in AUD · the history displayed on the chart
Week ending	Close	30-week trend	Fair Value
2023-10-20	0.1175	0.1359	0.3023
2023-10-27	0.115	0.135	0.3011
2023-11-03	0.115	0.1338	0.2998
2023-11-10	0.11	0.1322	0.2985
2023-11-17	0.11	0.1309	0.2972
2023-11-24	0.11	0.1291	0.2948
2023-12-01	0.105	0.1273	0.2913
2023-12-08	0.10	0.1254	0.2876
2023-12-15	0.10	0.1228	0.285
2023-12-22	0.105	0.1206	0.2823
2023-12-29	0.097	0.1184	0.2792
2024-01-05	0.097	0.117	0.2758
2024-01-12	0.098	0.1162	0.272
2024-01-19	0.092	0.1154	0.2687
2024-01-26	0.08	0.114	0.2654
2024-02-02	0.079	0.1124	0.2617
2024-02-09	0.08	0.111	0.2573
2024-02-16	0.071	0.1092	0.2534
2024-02-23	0.069	0.107	0.2498
2024-03-01	0.062	0.1049	0.2463
2024-03-08	0.062	0.1028	0.2428
2024-03-15	0.062	0.1009	0.2395
2024-03-22	0.062	0.0988	0.2363
2024-03-29	0.062	0.0965	0.2332
2024-04-05	0.062	0.0946	0.2301
2024-04-12	0.062	0.0925	0.2271
2024-04-19	0.062	0.0904	0.2242
2024-04-26	0.062	0.0884	0.2215
2024-05-03	0.062	0.0865	0.2188
2024-05-10	0.062	0.0844	0.2166
2024-05-17	0.062	0.0826	0.2142
2024-05-24	0.062	0.0808	0.2119
2024-05-31	0.062	0.079	0.2096
2024-06-07	0.05	0.077	0.2073
2024-06-14	0.042	0.0748	0.205
2024-06-21	0.033	0.0722	0.2029
2024-06-28	0.028	0.0696	0.2004
2024-07-05	0.032	0.0674	0.1981
2024-07-12	0.031	0.0651	0.1958
2024-07-19	0.029	0.0625	0.1935
2024-07-26	0.037	0.0605	0.192
2024-08-02	0.038	0.0586	0.1903
2024-08-09	0.034	0.0564	0.1885
2024-08-16	0.033	0.0545	0.1869
2024-08-23	0.036	0.053	0.1853
2024-08-30	0.04	0.0517	0.1836
2024-09-06	0.037	0.0503	0.182
2024-09-13	0.038	0.0492	0.1805
2024-09-20	0.039	0.0482	0.1789
2024-09-27	0.06	0.0481	0.1775
2024-10-04	0.0653	0.0482	0.1761
2024-10-11	0.052	0.0479	0.1746
2024-10-18	0.044	0.0473	0.1729
2024-10-25	0.04	0.0465	0.1713
2024-11-01	0.043	0.0459	0.1698
2024-11-08	0.051	0.0455	0.1682
2024-11-15	0.0455	0.045	0.1666
2024-11-22	0.046	0.0445	0.1651
2024-11-29	0.047	0.044	0.1635
2024-12-06	0.042	0.0433	0.1619
2024-12-13	0.0405	0.0426	0.1603
2024-12-20	0.038	0.0418	0.1587
2024-12-27	0.038	0.041	0.1571
2025-01-03	0.038	0.0406	0.1554
2025-01-10	0.038	0.0404	0.1539
2025-01-17	0.038	0.0406	0.1523
2025-01-24	0.038	0.0409	0.1507
2025-01-31	0.033	0.041	0.1492
2025-02-07	0.03	0.0409	0.1476
2025-02-14	0.03	0.041	0.1461
2025-02-21	0.03	0.0407	0.1448
2025-02-28	0.0285	0.0404	0.1433
2025-03-07	0.027	0.0402	0.142
2025-03-14	0.024	0.0399	0.1405
2025-03-21	0.024	0.0395	0.1391
2025-03-28	0.025	0.039	0.1375
2025-04-04	0.027	0.0387	0.1354
2025-04-11	0.017	0.038	0.1329
2025-04-18	0.017	0.0372	0.1304
2025-04-25	0.016	0.0358	0.128
2025-05-02	0.016	0.0341	0.126
2025-05-09	0.016	0.0329	0.1241
2025-05-16	0.016	0.032	0.1221
2025-05-23	0.015	0.0312	0.1203
2025-05-30	0.014	0.0302	0.1183
2025-06-06	0.014	0.029	0.1165
2025-06-13	0.013	0.0279	0.1149
2025-06-20	0.011	0.0267	0.1134
2025-06-27	0.01	0.0255	0.1114
2025-07-04	0.017	0.0246	0.1096
2025-07-11	0.016	0.0238	0.1078
2025-07-18	0.015	0.023	0.1059
2025-07-25	0.015	0.0223	0.104
2025-08-01	0.015	0.0215	0.1023
2025-08-08	0.013	0.0207	0.1005
2025-08-15	0.014	0.0199	0.0988
2025-08-22	0.014	0.0191	0.0971
2025-08-29	0.014	0.0184	0.0955
2025-09-05	0.013	0.0179	0.0939
2025-09-12	0.011	0.0172	0.0922
2025-09-19	0.011	0.0166	0.0906
2025-09-26	0.019	0.0163	0.0891
2025-10-03	0.014	0.0159	0.0873
2025-10-10	0.015	0.0156	0.0857
2025-10-17	0.014	0.0152	0.084
2025-10-24	0.014	0.0149	0.0826
2025-10-31	0.012	0.0144	0.0812
2025-11-07	0.011	0.0142	0.0798
2025-11-14	0.011	0.014	0.0784
2025-11-21	0.011	0.0138	0.0769
2025-11-28	0.0105	0.0136	0.0755
2025-12-05	0.009	0.0134	0.0742
2025-12-12	0.008	0.0131	0.0729
2025-12-19	0.009	0.0129	0.0717
2025-12-26	0.009	0.0128	0.0704
2026-01-02	0.009	0.0126	0.0691
2026-01-09	0.011	0.0125	0.0679
2026-01-16	0.01	0.0125	0.0667
2026-01-23	0.009	0.0124	0.0655
2026-01-30	0.008	0.0122	0.0644
2026-02-06	0.008	0.0119	0.0632
2026-02-13	0.008	0.0116	0.0621
2026-02-20	0.007	0.0114	0.0611
2026-02-27	0.008	0.0112	0.06
2026-03-06	0.007	0.011	0.0591
2026-03-13	0.007	0.0107	0.0582
2026-03-20	0.006	0.0104	0.0573
2026-03-27	0.005	0.0102	0.0565
2026-04-03	0.006	0.009917	0.0555
2026-04-10	0.005	0.009717	0.0546
2026-04-17	0.006	0.00955	0.0536
2026-04-24	0.0055	0.0091	0.0526
2026-05-01	0.005	0.0088	0.0516
2026-05-08	0.005	0.008467	0.0507
2026-05-15	0.005	0.008167	0.0495
2026-05-22	0.005	0.007867	0.0485
2026-05-29	0.004	0.0076	0.0475
2026-06-05	0.004	0.007367	0.0466
2026-06-12	0.004	0.007133	0.0458
2026-06-19	0.004	0.0069	0.0451
2026-06-26	0.003	0.00665	0.0444
2026-07-03	0.0045	0.0065	0.0436
2026-07-10	0.0045	0.006383	0.0428
2026-07-17	0.004	0.006217	0.0421
2026-07-24	0.003	0.006017	0.0412
2026-07-31	0.0025	0.0058	0.0404
2026-08-07	0.003	0.005533	0.0396
2026-08-14	0.003	0.0053	0.0389
2026-08-21	0.003	0.0051	0.0381
2026-08-28	0.004	0.004967	0.0373
2026-09-04	0.005	0.004867	0.0366
2026-09-11	0.005	0.004767	0.0358
2026-09-18	0.004	0.004667	0.035
2026-09-25	0.005	0.004567	0.0343
2026-10-02	0.0045	0.004483	0.0335
2026-10-09	0.006	0.00445	0.0328

What to watch next

Weekly closing levels

Read these with the wave count, not as automatic trade instructions.

Supports the wave viewAbove AUD 0.006 0.0% from the latest close

A weekly close beyond this level would support the selected direction. Check the other readings too.

Changes the wave viewBelow AUD 0.004 -33.3% from the latest close

A weekly close beyond this level would break the current directional interpretation.

Earlier confirmed swing AUD 0.004

A separate, confirmed price reference for the wider structure. It is not the current count’s failure level.

Confirmed 2026-09-18

Check the wave count and alternatives ↓

4-week return 20.0%

13-week return 33.3%

26-week return 20.0%

52-week return -60.0%

From 52-week high -64.7%

26-week volatility 136.6%

Scenario playbook

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Start with the price condition. Then check the supporting evidence and the alternative count.

Direction holds

Wait for price confirmation

Above AUD 0.006

The count needs a weekly close beyond this reference, with supporting price and cycle evidence.

No decision yet

Timing arrives; price does not turn

A projected window can pass without a reversal. Keep the count provisional if price has not confirmed; review the alternative count and the longer cycle.

Count fails

Know what changes the view

Below AUD 0.004

A weekly close beyond this boundary conflicts with the selected count. Review a fresh count instead of extending the old explanation.

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

2 of 2 available degrees share the leading direction. These are different views of the same price series.

Strategic · 24.0% reversalNo rule-valid countInsufficient rule-valid geometry

Primary · 16.0% reversalPossible Wave 3 advancing

74/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction

Tactical · 11.2% reversalPossible Wave 3 advancing

74/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction

02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 16.0% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible Wave 3 advancingPrimary swing size · Leading39%

Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completingPrimary swing size22%

Possible Wave 3 advancingTactical swing size39%

Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.

Leading wave count

Possible Wave 3 advancing

39% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm above 0.006 Fails below 0.004 Count stability Low · 20/100

Wave rules and proportions

PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 0.0025; Wave 2 0.004.

PassWave 3 exceeds Wave 1Wave 1 0.005; Wave 3 0.006.

GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 40% of Wave 1.

GuidelineWave 3 extension is plausibleWave 3 is 0.80× Wave 1.

Strategic degreeNo valid count

Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible Wave 3 advancing

Primary degree uses a 16.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreePossible Wave 3 advancing

Tactical degree uses a 11.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 50.0%

3 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.004

Pivot from 2026-09-18

Nearest confirmed resistance 0.011

Pivot from 2026-01-09

30-week trend 0.00445

Price is 34.8% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.0328

Price is -81.7% from Fair Value

52-week range position 24%

0.0025 low · 0.017 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

5 of 7 available readings support the upward wave interpretation; 2 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

71% directional agreement

The other readings support this direction. 5 readings support the selected direction; 2 lean against it.

Trend

Price is holding above its 30-week trend.

34.8% above trend

Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Rising

Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are improving together.

Rising Stack

Relative strength

Underperforming its benchmark

-8.6

Market activity

Participation is supportive

+20.6

Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is supportive

+1.2

30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is negative

-14.3

Balance of readings Constructive

5 constructive, 2 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is supportive. This supports the upward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Underperforming its benchmark. This challenges the upward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is negative. This challenges the upward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is supportive. This supports the upward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Possible turning intervals

The timing map.

Estimated from 9 Oct 2026. Bands show model uncertainty, not confidence intervals or guaranteed turning dates.

Trough window Crest window

Now+106 weeks

10w bandEstimated 8w · Cresting

No measurable positive repeat

0/100Repeat fit · 34.5 cycles of history

20w bandEstimated 15w · Rising

No measurable positive repeat

0/100Repeat fit · 18.4 cycles of history

40w bandEstimated 50w · Troughing

50/100Repeat fit · 5.5 cycles of history

Trough: 14 May–29 Oct 2027 (+31–55w)Crest: 4 Dec–21 May 2027 (+8–32w)

80w bandEstimated 100w · Troughing

55/100Repeat fit · 2.8 cycles of history

Trough: 5 May–20 Oct 2028 (+82–106w)Crest: 3 Dec–19 May 2028 (+60–84w)

The best nearby repeat is selected from the same sample being described. Its fit is not an out-of-sample forecast score. When fewer than two estimated cycles are available the recent weekly history has gaps, or no positive repeat is measured, timing windows are withheld.

Cycle pressure is rising. That supports the recent upswing, but it does not establish how long it will last.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 55/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseRising

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementRising Stack

75/100 rising alignment · 25/100 falling alignment

Estimated next low43 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high20 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 8w

Current phaseCresting

Repeat score0/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough1w

Possible next low-

Typical / observed cycle20w / 15w

Current phaseRising

Repeat score0/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough3w

Possible next low-

Typical / observed cycle40w / 50w

Current phaseTroughing

Repeat score50/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough7w

Possible next low31–55w

Typical / observed cycle80w / 100w

Current phaseTroughing

Repeat score55/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down

Since last trough6w

Possible next low82–106w

05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 98.6% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 64.7% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

Trend extension
Price is 34.8% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability.
Count instability
The primary interpretation has low recent stability.
Multi-cycle risk
Hurst risk alignment is 25/100.

Downside risk check

Watch

32/100

Wave maturity0/25

Trend extension20/20

Range position0/15

Cycle rollover0/15

Multi-cycle risk4/15

Count instability8/10

Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.0025

52-week high0.017

Annualised volatility136.6%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range23.1%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-98.6%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume427%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.

30% constructive

7 of 23 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

22% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.

Earnings and options

Check the upcoming earnings date

Earnings: 2026-11-17 · about 6w away

Options: Bullish · 49/100 conviction · ±% expected move

Stored options pressure is bullish with 49/100 conviction.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.

Peer-state horizon	Non-overlapping samples	Positive	Median	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Middle 80% of returns
4 weeks	178	49%	0.0%	-0.8%	-11.4% to 12.9%
13 weeks	91	50%	0.0%	-2.3%	-19.4% to 39.6%
26 weeks	73	55%	3.2%	-2.3%	-25.3% to 41.9%

07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was -6.7% across 51 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

52 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

-6.7%

13w

-21.5%

26w

-46.4%

Horizon	Matches	Positive	Median	Range
4 weeks	51	28%	-6.7%	-34.1% to 76.4%
13 weeks	46	15%	-21.5%	-52.6% to 50.0%
26 weeks	46	0%	-46.4%	-73.7% to -9.1%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations

Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history: 100/100
Indicator coverage: 100/100
Confirmed structure: 100/100

Elliott impulse rules ↗ · Hurst price confirmation ↗

Model ewc-2.2.0 · as of 2026-10-09 · the last swing is provisional; adaptive thresholds and cycle periods can revise earlier labels between reports.

How the count is built

Rules and data notes

Swing points use weekly closes and a 16.0% adaptive reversal threshold.
The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
These close-based impulse and A/B/C candidates do not exhaustively classify diagonals, triangles or complex corrections. Counts and historical cycle curves can be revised when adaptive thresholds or estimated periods change.
Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.

Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move. This is the current reconstruction; it is not a saved history of earlier published labels.

Date	Status	Type	Price	Move	Duration
2025-12-12	Confirmed	Low	0.008	-57.9%	11 weeks
2026-01-09	Confirmed	High	0.011	37.5%	4 weeks
2026-03-27	Confirmed	Low	0.005	-54.5%	11 weeks
2026-04-03	Confirmed	High	0.006	20.0%	1 weeks
2026-04-10	Confirmed	Low	0.005	-16.7%	1 weeks
2026-04-17	Confirmed	High	0.006	20.0%	1 weeks
2026-06-26	Confirmed	Low	0.003	-50.0%	10 weeks
2026-07-10	Confirmed	High	0.0045	50.0%	2 weeks
2026-07-31	Confirmed	Low	0.0025	-44.4%	3 weeks
2026-09-11	Confirmed	High	0.005	100.0%	6 weeks
2026-09-18	Confirmed	Low	0.004	-20.0%	1 weeks
2026-10-09	Forming	High	0.006	50.0%	3 weeks

Follow the evidence

Test the view in related research.

Compare the same market from another angle. Shared price inputs can agree without providing independent confirmation.

CANWave & cycle analysis

The wave count points to an advance

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Wait for price confirmation

Timing arrives; price does not turn

Know what changes the view

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

Possible Wave 3 advancing

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Watch

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

30% constructive

Check the upcoming earnings date

What happened after similar readings

Typical return after a match

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Chart guide

Send a message

Evidence context

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Wait for price confirmation

Timing arrives; price does not turn

Know what changes the view

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

Possible Wave 3 advancing

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Watch

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

30% constructive

Check the upcoming earnings date

What happened after similar readings

Typical return after a match

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Stage Analysis ↗

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗