ASX · Consumer Cyclical · Weekly analysis

GAPWave & cycle analysis

Gale Pacific Limited

Latest close AUD 0.10 Week ending 9 Oct 2026 History 276 weeks

Current reading

The wave count points to a decline

The selected pattern describes a move downward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

49/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Watching Setup status

A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.

How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countPossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings point the other way

5 of 7 available readings lean against the downward wave interpretation; 1 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

Main uncertaintyLow count stability

The leading count changed 7 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values

Prices in AUD · the history displayed on the chart
Week ending	Close	30-week trend	Fair Value
2023-10-20	0.19	0.2118	0.2861
2023-10-27	0.18	0.2083	0.2859
2023-11-03	0.1875	0.2056	0.2854
2023-11-10	0.18	0.2032	0.2849
2023-11-17	0.185	0.2008	0.2845
2023-11-24	0.175	0.1982	0.2838
2023-12-01	0.185	0.1959	0.2832
2023-12-08	0.18	0.1939	0.2825
2023-12-15	0.18	0.1931	0.2817
2023-12-22	0.18	0.1931	0.281
2023-12-29	0.18	0.1928	0.2802
2024-01-05	0.19	0.1931	0.2796
2024-01-12	0.195	0.1936	0.2791
2024-01-19	0.185	0.1939	0.2787
2024-01-26	0.18	0.1939	0.2782
2024-02-02	0.18	0.1932	0.2777
2024-02-09	0.155	0.1919	0.277
2024-02-16	0.18	0.1914	0.2763
2024-02-23	0.175	0.1902	0.2754
2024-03-01	0.175	0.1891	0.2745
2024-03-08	0.1675	0.1877	0.2737
2024-03-15	0.17	0.1855	0.2729
2024-03-22	0.17	0.1835	0.2723
2024-03-29	0.16	0.1828	0.2715
2024-04-05	0.175	0.1823	0.2708
2024-04-12	0.175	0.1815	0.2698
2024-04-19	0.17	0.1805	0.2689
2024-04-26	0.17	0.1792	0.2681
2024-05-03	0.155	0.178	0.2672
2024-05-10	0.135	0.1755	0.2661
2024-05-17	0.13	0.1735	0.2647
2024-05-24	0.14	0.1722	0.2635
2024-05-31	0.135	0.1704	0.2623
2024-06-07	0.135	0.1689	0.2611
2024-06-14	0.13	0.1671	0.2598
2024-06-21	0.12	0.1652	0.2583
2024-06-28	0.125	0.1632	0.2569
2024-07-05	0.115	0.1611	0.2553
2024-07-12	0.12	0.1591	0.2536
2024-07-19	0.1125	0.1568	0.2517
2024-07-26	0.105	0.1543	0.2496
2024-08-02	0.10	0.1513	0.2474
2024-08-09	0.105	0.1483	0.2453
2024-08-16	0.10	0.1455	0.2432
2024-08-23	0.12	0.1435	0.2417
2024-08-30	0.125	0.1417	0.2401
2024-09-06	0.115	0.1403	0.2385
2024-09-13	0.135	0.1388	0.237
2024-09-20	0.115	0.1368	0.2354
2024-09-27	0.12	0.135	0.2339
2024-10-04	0.125	0.1336	0.2325
2024-10-11	0.125	0.1321	0.2311
2024-10-18	0.125	0.1306	0.2294
2024-10-25	0.135	0.1298	0.2277
2024-11-01	0.14	0.1286	0.226
2024-11-08	0.125	0.1269	0.2253
2024-11-15	0.13	0.1256	0.2243
2024-11-22	0.13	0.1242	0.2234
2024-11-29	0.13	0.1234	0.2224
2024-12-06	0.13	0.1232	0.2211
2024-12-13	0.135	0.1234	0.2199
2024-12-20	0.125	0.1229	0.2189
2024-12-27	0.125	0.1226	0.2176
2025-01-03	0.135	0.1226	0.2166
2025-01-10	0.125	0.1224	0.2155
2025-01-17	0.125	0.1226	0.2145
2025-01-24	0.115	0.1222	0.2134
2025-01-31	0.115	0.1222	0.2124
2025-02-07	0.11	0.1219	0.2113
2025-02-14	0.11	0.1218	0.21
2025-02-21	0.105	0.1218	0.2088
2025-02-28	0.12	0.1225	0.2076
2025-03-07	0.12	0.123	0.2065
2025-03-14	0.115	0.1235	0.2053
2025-03-21	0.135	0.124	0.2041
2025-03-28	0.13	0.1242	0.203
2025-04-04	0.105	0.1238	0.2017
2025-04-11	0.11	0.123	0.2004
2025-04-18	0.10	0.1225	0.1991
2025-04-25	0.097	0.1217	0.1977
2025-05-02	0.10	0.1209	0.1964
2025-05-09	0.099	0.12	0.195
2025-05-16	0.10	0.1192	0.1936
2025-05-23	0.095	0.1179	0.1922
2025-05-30	0.095	0.1164	0.191
2025-06-06	0.09	0.1152	0.1897
2025-06-13	0.092	0.1139	0.1886
2025-06-20	0.09	0.1126	0.1874
2025-06-27	0.092	0.1113	0.1862
2025-07-04	0.089	0.11	0.185
2025-07-11	0.089	0.1084	0.1839
2025-07-18	0.09	0.1073	0.1828
2025-07-25	0.094	0.1062	0.1817
2025-08-01	0.097	0.105	0.1806
2025-08-08	0.095	0.104	0.1794
2025-08-15	0.097	0.103	0.1782
2025-08-22	0.098	0.1025	0.1768
2025-08-29	0.087	0.1015	0.1755
2025-09-05	0.094	0.101	0.1742
2025-09-12	0.093	0.1004	0.1729
2025-09-19	0.091	0.10	0.1717
2025-09-26	0.099	0.0993	0.1706
2025-10-03	0.097	0.0985	0.1694
2025-10-10	0.096	0.0979	0.1682
2025-10-17	0.0905	0.0964	0.167
2025-10-24	0.091	0.0951	0.1657
2025-10-31	0.095	0.0948	0.1644
2025-11-07	0.094	0.0942	0.1632
2025-11-14	0.092	0.094	0.1621
2025-11-21	0.095	0.0939	0.1609
2025-11-28	0.087	0.0934	0.1596
2025-12-05	0.09	0.0932	0.1584
2025-12-12	0.09	0.0928	0.1573
2025-12-19	0.095	0.0928	0.1561
2025-12-26	0.092	0.0927	0.1549
2026-01-02	0.091	0.0928	0.1537
2026-01-09	0.09	0.0927	0.1525
2026-01-16	0.087	0.0926	0.1513
2026-01-23	0.089	0.0925	0.15
2026-01-30	0.09	0.0925	0.1487
2026-02-06	0.088	0.0925	0.1474
2026-02-13	0.086	0.0924	0.146
2026-02-20	0.087	0.0921	0.1447
2026-02-27	0.078	0.0915	0.1434
2026-03-06	0.081	0.091	0.1421
2026-03-13	0.08	0.0904	0.1408
2026-03-20	0.082	0.0899	0.1396
2026-03-27	0.078	0.0896	0.1383
2026-04-03	0.084	0.0893	0.1371
2026-04-10	0.079	0.0888	0.136
2026-04-17	0.08	0.0884	0.1349
2026-04-24	0.083	0.0879	0.1338
2026-05-01	0.081	0.0874	0.1327
2026-05-08	0.085	0.087	0.1317
2026-05-15	0.08	0.0867	0.1309
2026-05-22	0.08	0.0863	0.1302
2026-05-29	0.078	0.0857	0.1295
2026-06-05	0.079	0.0852	0.1289
2026-06-12	0.079	0.0848	0.1282
2026-06-19	0.075	0.0841	0.1276
2026-06-26	0.08	0.0839	0.127
2026-07-03	0.075	0.0834	0.1262
2026-07-10	0.081	0.0831	0.1254
2026-07-17	0.085	0.0828	0.1247
2026-07-24	0.082	0.0824	0.1239
2026-07-31	0.093	0.0825	0.1231
2026-08-07	0.10	0.0828	0.1224
2026-08-14	0.11	0.0836	0.1216
2026-08-21	0.10	0.084	0.1208
2026-08-28	0.115	0.0848	0.1204
2026-09-04	0.11	0.0855	0.1199
2026-09-11	0.105	0.0862	0.1193
2026-09-18	0.10	0.0866	0.1186
2026-09-25	0.10	0.0873	0.1179
2026-10-02	0.098	0.0879	0.1173
2026-10-09	0.10	0.0886	0.1166

What to watch next

Weekly closing levels

Read these with the wave count, not as automatic trade instructions.

Supports the wave viewBelow AUD 0.10 0.0% from the latest close

A weekly close beyond this level would support the selected direction. Check the other readings too.

Changes the wave viewAbove AUD 0.115 15.0% from the latest close

A weekly close beyond this level would break the current directional interpretation.

Earlier confirmed swing AUD 0.115

A separate, confirmed price reference for the wider structure. It is not the current count’s failure level.

Confirmed 2026-08-28

Check the wave count and alternatives ↓

4-week return -4.8%

13-week return 23.5%

26-week return 26.6%

52-week return 4.2%

From 52-week high -13.0%

26-week volatility 44.3%

Scenario playbook

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Start with the price condition. Then check the supporting evidence and the alternative count.

Direction holds

Wait for price confirmation

Below AUD 0.10

The count needs a weekly close beyond this reference, with supporting price and cycle evidence.

No decision yet

Timing arrives; price does not turn

A projected window can pass without a reversal. Keep the count provisional if price has not confirmed; review the alternative count and the longer cycle.

Count fails

Know what changes the view

Above AUD 0.115

A weekly close beyond this boundary conflicts with the selected count. Review a fresh count instead of extending the old explanation.

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

2 of 2 available degrees share the leading direction. These are different views of the same price series.

Strategic · 16.9% reversalPossible bearish Wave 4 crest

90/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction

Primary · 10.6% reversalPossible bearish Wave 2 crest

58/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction

Tactical · 7.4% reversalNo rule-valid countInsufficient rule-valid geometry

02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 10.6% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible bearish Wave 2 crestPrimary swing size · Leading6%

Possible bearish Wave 4 crestStrategic swing size85%

Possible bearish Wave 2 crestStrategic swing size9%

Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.

Leading wave count

Possible bearish Wave 2 crest

6% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm below 0.10 Fails above 0.115 Count stability Low · 0/100

Wave rules and proportions

PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 0.115; Wave 2 0.10.

GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 0% of Wave 1.

Strategic degreePossible bearish Wave 4 crest

Strategic degree uses a 16.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Primary degree uses a 10.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreeNo valid count

Tactical degree uses a 7.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 0.0%

3 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.075

Pivot from 2026-07-03

Nearest confirmed resistance 0.115

Pivot from 2026-08-28

30-week trend 0.0886

Price is 12.9% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.1166

Price is -14.3% from Fair Value

52-week range position 68%

0.068 low · 0.115 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

5 of 7 available readings lean against the downward wave interpretation; 1 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

71% directional agreement

The other readings point the other way. 1 readings support the selected direction; 5 lean against it.

Trend

Price is holding above its 30-week trend.

12.9% above trend

Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is not rising.

Cresting

Cycle alignment

Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction.

Mixed

Relative strength

Outperforming its benchmark

+13.7

Market activity

Participation is supportive

+23.4

Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is supportive

+0.7

30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is positive

+25.0

Balance of readings Constructive

5 constructive, 1 weak and 1 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is supportive. This challenges the downward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Outperforming its benchmark. This challenges the downward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is positive. This challenges the downward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is supportive. This challenges the downward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Possible turning intervals

The timing map.

Estimated from 9 Oct 2026. Bands show model uncertainty, not confidence intervals or guaranteed turning dates.

Trough window Crest window

Now+92 weeks

10w bandEstimated 8w · Falling

No measurable positive repeat

0/100Repeat fit · 34.5 cycles of history

20w bandEstimated 15w · Cresting

No measurable positive repeat

0/100Repeat fit · 18.4 cycles of history

40w bandEstimated 48w · Rising

41/100Repeat fit · 5.8 cycles of history

Trough: 16 Apr–23 Jul 2027 (+27–41w)Crest: 4 Dec–12 Mar 2027 (+8–22w)

80w bandEstimated 89w · Rising

13/100Repeat fit · 3.1 cycles of history

Trough: 3 Dec–14 Jul 2028 (+60–92w)Crest: 23 Jul–3 Mar 2028 (+41–73w)

The best nearby repeat is selected from the same sample being described. Its fit is not an out-of-sample forecast score. When fewer than two estimated cycles are available the recent weekly history has gaps, or no positive repeat is measured, timing windows are withheld.

Cycle pressure is near a high and starting to turn. Watch whether price and momentum also weaken.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 41/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseCresting

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementMixed

50/100 rising alignment · 50/100 falling alignment

Estimated next low34 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high15 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 8w

Current phaseFalling

Repeat score0/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down

Since last trough1w

Possible next low-

Typical / observed cycle20w / 15w

Current phaseCresting

Repeat score0/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down

Since last trough16w

Possible next low-

Typical / observed cycle40w / 48w

Current phaseRising

Repeat score41/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough14w

Possible next low27–41w

Typical / observed cycle80w / 89w

Current phaseRising

Repeat score13/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough13w

Possible next low60–92w

05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 77.3% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 13.0% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

Cycle rollover
Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.
Trend extension
Price is 12.9% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability.
Count instability
The primary interpretation has low recent stability.

Downside risk check

Watch

44/100

Wave maturity0/25

Trend extension11/20

Range position0/15

Cycle rollover15/15

Multi-cycle risk8/15

Count instability10/10

Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.068

52-week high0.115

Annualised volatility44.3%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range4.6%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-77.3%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume255%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.

38% constructive

9 of 24 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

33% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.

Earnings and options

Check the upcoming earnings date

Earnings: 2026-11-19 · about 6w away

Options: Bullish · 28/100 conviction · ±4.8% expected move

Stored options pressure is bullish with 28/100 conviction.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.

Peer-state horizon	Non-overlapping samples	Positive	Median	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Middle 80% of returns
4 weeks	603	53%	0.6%	0.1%	-10.0% to 9.8%
13 weeks	228	54%	1.1%	-0.6%	-18.9% to 22.8%
26 weeks	130	55%	2.4%	-0.3%	-25.0% to 29.2%

07 · History

What happened after similar readings

There are not enough completed, comparable outcomes to draw a useful historical comparison.

8 similar weekly states

Not enough comparable history yet

Historical context appears only when at least eight completed outcomes are available for one of the measured horizons.

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations

Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history: 100/100
Indicator coverage: 100/100
Confirmed structure: 100/100

Elliott impulse rules ↗ · Hurst price confirmation ↗

Model ewc-2.2.0 · as of 2026-10-09 · the last swing is provisional; adaptive thresholds and cycle periods can revise earlier labels between reports.

How the count is built

Rules and data notes

Swing points use weekly closes and a 10.6% adaptive reversal threshold.
The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
These close-based impulse and A/B/C candidates do not exhaustively classify diagonals, triangles or complex corrections. Counts and historical cycle curves can be revised when adaptive thresholds or estimated periods change.
Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.

Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move. This is the current reconstruction; it is not a saved history of earlier published labels.

Date	Status	Type	Price	Move	Duration
2024-08-16	Confirmed	Low	0.10	-44.4%	26 weeks
2024-09-13	Confirmed	High	0.135	35.0%	4 weeks
2024-09-20	Confirmed	Low	0.115	-14.8%	1 weeks
2024-11-01	Confirmed	High	0.14	21.7%	6 weeks
2025-02-21	Confirmed	Low	0.105	-25.0%	16 weeks
2025-03-21	Confirmed	High	0.135	28.6%	4 weeks
2025-08-29	Confirmed	Low	0.087	-35.6%	23 weeks
2025-09-26	Confirmed	High	0.099	13.8%	4 weeks
2026-07-03	Confirmed	Low	0.075	-24.2%	40 weeks
2026-08-28	Confirmed	High	0.115	53.3%	8 weeks
2026-09-18	Confirmed	Low	0.10	-13.0%	3 weeks
2026-10-09	Forming	High	0.10	0.0%	3 weeks

Follow the evidence

Test the view in related research.

Compare the same market from another angle. Shared price inputs can agree without providing independent confirmation.

GAPWave & cycle analysis

The wave count points to a decline

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Wait for price confirmation

Timing arrives; price does not turn

Know what changes the view

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

Possible bearish Wave 2 crest

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Watch

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

38% constructive

Check the upcoming earnings date

What happened after similar readings

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Chart guide

Send a message

Evidence context

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Wait for price confirmation

Timing arrives; price does not turn

Know what changes the view

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

Possible bearish Wave 2 crest

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Watch

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

38% constructive

Check the upcoming earnings date

What happened after similar readings

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Stage Analysis ↗

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗