PAR · EQUITY · ENHANCED MARKET DYNAMICS

ALAVI

AdVini S.A.

FR · Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries

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EMD SCORE54/100

CURRENT COMPLETED-WEEK READ

Balanced

Constructive and cautious evidence are close enough to require confirmation. Conditions are positive and have strengthened over the latest four completed weeks.

Constructive build20% directional agreement74/100 evidence quality6/6 sources available

Completed week: 9 Oct 2026
Latest close: EUR 15.70
Evidence: 156 weeks

Four-week EMD change+7.1 pts

signed chart scale −100 to +100

Four-week price+0.0%

completed closing prices

Current directional run1 weeks

on the same side of EMD zero

Recent consistency8/13

recent readings above zero

COMPLETED-WEEK OVERVIEW

Price and market conditions over time

3 supportive · 2 cautious

Enhanced Market Dynamics and the price cycle156 completed weeks · bars use the left EMD axis; price uses the right axis.

20 Oct 2023–9 Oct 2026

Constructive EMDCautious EMDCompleted-week priceUp-cycle confirmationDown-cycle confirmation

Confirmation markers describe price-zone departures within this saved history. Earlier markers can change as the history changes; they are not a record of signals available in real time.

Cycle position 83%Current EMD +8.64-week EMD change +7.1Full saved history price range EUR 11.40–18.20

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close · EUR	EMD −100 to +100	Score /100	Agreement %	Coverage %
2023-10-20	18.20	-14.89	43	20	83
2023-10-27	18.00	-21.28	39	50	83
2023-11-03	17.40	-36.94	32	60	83
2023-11-10	16.40	-26.72	37	20	100
2023-11-17	16.80	-37.07	31	60	100
2023-11-24	17.00	-32.59	34	33	100
2023-12-01	16.60	-44.2	28	67	100
2023-12-08	16.30	-41.41	29	60	100
2023-12-15	15.00	-60.87	20	67	100
2023-12-22	15.50	-51.4	24	100	100
2023-12-29	15.50	-38.25	31	60	100
2024-01-05	15.30	-50.1	25	100	100
2024-01-12	15.30	-41.86	29	100	100
2024-01-19	15.30	-49.98	25	100	100
2024-01-26	15.50	-39.2	30	60	100
2024-02-02	15.50	-44.5	28	100	100
2024-02-09	15.10	-47.62	26	100	100
2024-02-16	15.80	-15.45	42	50	100
2024-02-23	15.90	-31.43	34	100	100
2024-03-01	15.00	-40.73	30	100	100
2024-03-08	15.00	-33.24	33	100	100
2024-03-15	14.70	-37.72	31	100	100
2024-03-22	14.30	-39.26	30	100	100
2024-03-29	14.20	-34.09	33	60	100
2024-04-05	14.40	-41.29	29	100	100
2024-04-12	15.60	-12.38	44	20	100
2024-04-19	15.00	-26.81	37	33	100
2024-04-26	14.90	-15.46	42	20	100
2024-05-03	14.60	-21.62	39	33	100
2024-05-10	14.60	-25.24	37	50	100
2024-05-17	14.50	-25.92	37	50	100
2024-05-24	14.80	-19.05	40	33	100
2024-05-31	14.20	-30.17	35	50	100
2024-06-07	14.40	-19.37	40	33	100
2024-06-14	14.20	-24.0	38	50	100
2024-06-21	14.30	-18.98	41	33	100
2024-06-28	14.40	-7.93	46	33	100
2024-07-05	14.10	-22.04	39	50	100
2024-07-12	14.60	-7.36	46	0	100
2024-07-19	14.90	-1.57	49	33	100
2024-07-26	15.90	21.46	61	60	100
2024-08-02	15.10	4.4	52	0	100
2024-08-09	15.00	6.73	53	20	100
2024-08-16	14.70	-2.96	49	20	100
2024-08-23	14.30	-14.12	43	33	100
2024-08-30	14.50	-2.51	49	20	100
2024-09-06	13.50	-39.26	30	60	100
2024-09-13	13.70	-24.26	38	60	100
2024-09-20	13.80	-12.01	44	20	100
2024-09-27	13.80	-35.32	32	67	100
2024-10-04	14.00	-13.62	43	20	100
2024-10-11	14.80	6.38	53	0	100
2024-10-18	14.60	-16.12	42	20	100
2024-10-25	14.60	-8.53	46	0	100
2024-11-01	15.60	45.18	73	100	100
2024-11-08	15.40	27.74	64	100	100
2024-11-15	14.60	9.91	55	60	100
2024-11-22	14.00	13.53	57	100	100
2024-11-29	14.40	6.36	53	20	100
2024-12-06	14.00	-13.02	43	50	100
2024-12-13	14.00	-5.92	47	50	100
2024-12-20	13.20	-26.9	37	67	100
2024-12-27	12.00	-47.77	26	67	100
2025-01-03	12.50	-19.83	40	33	100
2025-01-10	12.30	-43.61	28	67	100
2025-01-17	12.40	-40.52	30	60	100
2025-01-24	12.30	-42.23	29	60	100
2025-01-31	12.50	-41.63	29	67	100
2025-02-07	12.50	-45.43	27	60	83
2025-02-14	12.30	-46.51	27	67	100
2025-02-21	12.30	-39.36	30	60	100
2025-02-28	12.40	-22.47	39	33	100
2025-03-07	12.30	-42.35	29	67	100
2025-03-14	12.60	-19.71	40	20	100
2025-03-21	12.50	-30.08	35	50	100
2025-03-28	12.60	-18.66	41	20	100
2025-04-04	13.20	5.53	53	50	100
2025-04-11	12.80	-14.92	43	0	100
2025-04-18	13.20	10.14	55	60	100
2025-04-25	13.00	-2.3	49	20	100
2025-05-02	12.50	-13.84	43	0	100
2025-05-09	13.20	2.88	51	33	100
2025-05-16	13.20	-4.98	48	0	100
2025-05-23	13.60	25.37	63	60	100
2025-05-30	13.30	6.66	53	0	100
2025-06-06	13.40	16.22	58	50	100
2025-06-13	13.40	13.11	57	20	100
2025-06-20	13.20	13.58	57	33	100
2025-06-27	12.90	11.62	56	20	100
2025-07-04	12.90	13.9	57	50	83
2025-07-11	12.30	-8.05	46	50	100
2025-07-18	12.40	-10.26	45	33	100
2025-07-25	12.30	-27.01	36	67	100
2025-08-01	12.30	-24.54	38	60	100
2025-08-08	12.10	-19.22	40	33	100
2025-08-15	12.00	-28.08	36	60	100
2025-08-22	12.00	-33.07	33	67	100
2025-08-29	12.40	-13.1	43	20	100
2025-09-05	12.20	-30.92	35	60	100
2025-09-12	11.90	-40.61	30	67	100
2025-09-19	11.80	-40.58	30	67	100
2025-09-26	11.60	-44.9	28	67	100
2025-10-03	11.40	-48.02	26	67	100
2025-10-10	13.00	-3.77	48	0	100
2025-10-17	12.80	-13.65	43	33	100
2025-10-24	12.80	-0.72	50	0	100
2025-10-31	12.40	-8.37	46	0	100
2025-11-07	12.50	3.38	52	20	100
2025-11-14	12.40	-2.69	49	20	100
2025-11-21	12.30	-8.1	46	20	100
2025-11-28	12.30	-10.65	45	20	100
2025-12-05	12.30	-13.79	43	50	100
2025-12-12	12.40	-3.6	48	0	100
2025-12-19	12.90	17.89	59	100	100
2025-12-26	13.00	23.4	62	100	100
2026-01-02	13.40	48.33	74	100	100
2026-01-09	14.30	67.58	84	100	100
2026-01-16	14.10	58.41	79	100	100
2026-01-23	14.10	49.05	75	67	100
2026-01-30	14.40	73.38	87	100	100
2026-02-06	14.50	68.94	84	100	100
2026-02-13	14.50	51.01	76	67	100
2026-02-20	14.30	39.22	70	67	100
2026-02-27	14.30	43.63	72	67	100
2026-03-06	14.00	48.67	74	67	100
2026-03-13	15.70	74.79	87	100	100
2026-03-20	17.30	79.52	90	100	100
2026-03-27	16.90	81.31	91	100	100
2026-04-03	16.70	65.68	83	67	100
2026-04-10	16.80	71.97	86	100	100
2026-04-17	17.00	69.53	85	100	100
2026-04-24	17.00	60.9	80	67	100
2026-05-01	17.50	78.49	89	100	100
2026-05-08	17.20	60.67	80	67	100
2026-05-15	17.30	68.62	84	100	100
2026-05-22	17.00	66.05	83	100	100
2026-05-29	16.60	66.46	83	100	100
2026-06-05	17.00	71.22	86	100	83
2026-06-12	17.00	52.37	76	100	100
2026-06-19	16.60	42.87	71	100	100
2026-06-26	17.20	51.73	76	60	83
2026-07-03	17.30	45.83	73	67	100
2026-07-10	17.20	48.37	74	60	83
2026-07-17	17.20	49.1	75	60	83
2026-07-24	16.70	38.02	69	60	83
2026-07-31	16.70	31.71	66	50	83
2026-08-07	16.90	31.98	66	60	83
2026-08-14	16.50	20.98	60	50	83
2026-08-21	16.40	24.06	62	67	100
2026-08-28	15.90	-1.51	49	0	83
2026-09-04	15.80	-4.21	48	0	83
2026-09-11	15.70	1.52	51	20	100
2026-09-18	15.50	-20.21	40	20	100
2026-09-25	15.50	-3.75	48	20	100
2026-10-02	15.40	-10.88	45	20	100
2026-10-09	15.70	8.6	54	20	100

SIX SOURCES · LAST 26 OBSERVATIONS

Is support broadening or thinning?

Green is supportive, rose is cautious.
Grey means the reading is unavailable.

Reading	17 Apr	24 Apr	1 May	8 May	15 May	22 May	29 May	5 Jun	12 Jun	19 Jun	26 Jun	3 Jul	10 Jul	17 Jul	24 Jul	31 Jul	7 Aug	14 Aug	21 Aug	28 Aug	4 Sep	11 Sep	18 Sep	25 Sep	2 Oct	9 Oct
Trend	100	100	100	99	99	99	97	98	97	93	96	96	94	92	83	81	83	72	68	20	17	15	11	10	9	13
Momentum	73	77	84	80	79	76	66	75	67	57	71	70	68	71	57	54	59	53	58	52	48	49	48	50	49	54
Underlying pressure	93	92	92	93	92	89	81	69	58	47	44	42	40	42	40	35	31	26	24	20	17	15	14	14	14	13
Price & volume	55	44	70	40	46	46	70	—	50	52	—	61	—	—	—	—	—	—	69	—	—	75	0	67	40	100
Relative strength	97	98	99	98	99	97	95	96	95	90	95	93	94	94	88	83	79	73	75	67	69	69	68	66	70	79
Modeled Trend	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	89	88	87	87	86	86	86	83	81	79	77	75

Each cell is a finished component score from 0–100. Components can disagree even when the combined reading stays positive.

STRONGEST CURRENT SOURCE

Price & volume

100/100

LEAST SUPPORTIVE SOURCE

Trend

13/100

WHAT WOULD CHANGE THE READ?

Three paths to keep in view

Conditional research scenarios.
No assumed price target or timing.

Continuation

Price and evidence stay together

Look for the current direction to hold across trend, pressure and relative strength. A rising price with weaker EMD is a less convincing continuation.

Change of direction

Watch for loss of support

If price keeps rising while EMD falls, inspect which readings are weakening. Broad deterioration matters more than a single soft week.

Cycle context

A range extreme is a location

An upper zone can persist during a strong advance; a lower zone can persist during a decline. Use departures, EMD direction and the related price charts together.

EARLIER COMPARABLE READINGS

What followed similar conditions?

Same ticker · similar score and direction of change.
Returns exclude costs and dividends.

4 WEEKS LATER-2.7%

Median price return · 8 non-overlapping examples

Observed range: -10.1% to +9.3%
Positive returns: 38%
All-period comparison: +0.8% median

13 WEEKS LATER-5.2%

Median price return · 4 non-overlapping examples

Observed range: -18.8% to +16.0%
Positive returns: 25%
All-period comparison: +1.4% median

How these comparisons are selected

Earlier observations must have the same constructive/fading/repair/deterioration condition, a score within ten points of today’s score and at least the same component coverage. The first 30 observations are omitted for warm-up; examples are spaced by the forward horizon to avoid overlap. Gapped return windows are excluded. The all-period comparison uses the same available history and spacing, without matching the current state. These are reconstructed observations, not a point-in-time strategy backtest or a forecast.

RECENT CYCLE HISTORY

How the current reading developed

28 Aug 2026Down-cycle confirmedEUR 15.90

20 Mar 2026Upper cycle zone confirmedEUR 17.30

19 Dec 2025Up-cycle confirmedEUR 12.90

10 Oct 2025Up-cycle confirmedEUR 13.00

9 May 2025Up-cycle confirmedEUR 13.20

11 Oct 2024Up-cycle confirmedEUR 14.80

12 Jul 2024Up-cycle confirmedEUR 14.60

26 Apr 2024Lower cycle zone confirmedEUR 14.90

THE FULL PRICE CYCLE

Follow the journey from one zone to the other

Cycle states use trailing completed-week observations.

Lower zone

Price establishes residence near the bottom of its long-cycle range. Improving EMD separates early repair from continued deterioration.

Upward journey

Price leaves the lower zone while EMD confirms improving participation. The objective is the broader move toward the upper zone, not a short weekly trade.

Upper zone

Price establishes residence near the top of its long-cycle range. A high range position can persist. Watch EMD for exhaustion and loss of support before interpreting it as a turn.

Downward journey

Price leaves the upper zone while EMD weakens. The reverse cycle remains active until lower-zone residence is confirmed again.

CURRENT READINGS