Weekly structural research · PAR · Consumer Defensive

ALAVI Stage Analysis

AdVini S.A.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close EUR 15.70Tenure NewBenchmark ^FCHI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -68−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 77/100directional strength

Maturity 9/100lifecycle context

Confidence 68/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +8.7%EUR 14.44 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	15.70	16.65	7.88	668	Downward Expansion	-68	77
2026-10-02	15.40	16.65	4.97	1950	Downward Expansion	-80	92
2026-09-25	15.50	16.60	3.87	1273	Rotation Down	-81	93
2026-09-18	15.50	16.56	4.51	607	Rotation Down	-61	86
2026-09-11	15.70	16.52	4.84	1269	Rotation Down	-58	85
2026-09-04	15.80	16.48	4.68	7	Rotation Down	-64	87
2026-08-28	15.90	16.44	4.16	6	Rotation Down	-54	74
2026-08-21	16.40	16.39	6.70	83	Deceleration	-14	32
2026-08-14	16.50	16.31	5.94	2	Deceleration	-6	20
2026-08-07	16.90	16.23	7.99	86	Deceleration	21	16
2026-07-31	16.70	16.15	9.73	1	Upward Expansion	27	20
2026-07-24	16.70	16.04	11.93	88	Upward Expansion	46	36
2026-07-17	17.20	15.91	16.28	1	Upward Expansion	63	54
2026-07-10	17.20	15.77	16.88	66	Upward Expansion	62	52
2026-07-03	17.30	15.61	15.84	553	Deceleration	69	64
2026-06-26	17.20	15.44	17.32	87	Deceleration	56	50
2026-06-19	16.60	15.28	13.21	121	Deceleration	42	33
2026-06-12	17.00	15.14	17.21	31	Deceleration	45	35
2026-06-05	17.00	14.98	19.49	108	Upward Expansion	45	33
2026-05-29	16.60	14.83	17.64	1584	Upward Expansion	49	39
2026-05-22	17.00	14.69	21.90	2308	Upward Expansion	64	54
2026-05-15	17.30	14.55	27.07	1044	Upward Expansion	68	60
2026-05-08	17.20	14.40	24.55	4402	Upward Expansion	68	63
2026-05-01	17.50	14.26	27.28	1612	Upward Expansion	79	69
2026-04-24	17.00	14.06	23.77	562	Upward Expansion	71	70
2026-04-17	17.00	13.88	20.33	1126	Upward Expansion	72	84
2026-04-10	16.80	13.71	21.59	1365	Upward Expansion	68	88
2026-04-03	16.70	13.54	25.71	2504	Upward Expansion	71	84
2026-03-27	16.90	13.39	31.95	3028	Upward Expansion	81	72
2026-03-20	17.30	13.24	36.66	10167	Upward Expansion	91	72
2026-03-13	15.70	13.07	21.16	6162	Upward Expansion	85	60
2026-03-06	14.00	12.94	7.46	1336	Upward Expansion	52	53
2026-02-27	14.30	12.88	2.53	1798	Upward Expansion	66	65
2026-02-20	14.30	12.81	3.49	2669	Upward Expansion	68	67
2026-02-13	14.50	12.75	7.73	1248	Upward Expansion	76	84
2026-02-06	14.50	12.68	8.53	1012	Upward Expansion	80	92
2026-01-30	14.40	12.60	9.98	2360	Upward Expansion	83	94
2026-01-23	14.10	12.55	7.73	2146	Upward Expansion	78	92
2026-01-16	14.10	12.51	6.44	2489	Upward Expansion	87	95
2026-01-09	14.30	12.48	6.75	4718	Upward Expansion	93	97
2026-01-02	13.40	12.45	2.13	3857	Balance	72	67
2025-12-26	13.00	12.45	0.11	302	Balance	34	40
2025-12-19	12.90	12.46	-1.28	1217	Balance	30	19
2025-12-12	12.40	12.49	-4.40	681	Balance	-28	14
2025-12-05	12.30	12.51	-6.10	748	Balance	-29	16
2025-11-28	12.30	12.54	-6.61	490	Balance	-25	13
2025-11-21	12.30	12.55	-5.50	1002	Balance	-22	11
2025-11-14	12.40	12.57	-7.34	899	Balance	-7	12
2025-11-07	12.50	12.60	-4.56	636	Balance	13	22
2025-10-31	12.40	12.61	-7.88	1850	Balance	-5	24
2025-10-24	12.80	12.64	-6.75	1093	Balance	0	18
2025-10-17	12.80	12.63	-6.58	7186	Downward Expansion	-15	12
2025-10-10	13.00	12.62	-2.45	5737	Downward Expansion	-21	21
2025-10-03	11.40	12.61	-16.48	943	Downward Expansion	-82	88
2025-09-26	11.60	12.64	-13.18	1324	Downward Expansion	-81	74
2025-09-19	11.80	12.66	-11.79	678	Downward Expansion	-76	56
2025-09-12	11.90	12.68	-11.06	808	Downward Expansion	-75	54
2025-09-05	12.20	12.69	-7.35	1055	Downward Expansion	-62	50
2025-08-29	12.40	12.70	-6.45	274	Downward Expansion	-65	59
2025-08-22	12.00	12.71	-12.77	134	Rotation Down	-75	86
2025-08-15	12.00	12.72	-12.63	234	Rotation Down	-52	76
2025-08-08	12.10	12.73	-10.31	1002	Rotation Down	-53	78
2025-08-01	12.30	12.74	-6.96	461	Rotation Down	-36	70
2025-07-25	12.30	12.74	-10.83	453	Rotation Down	-35	58
2025-07-18	12.40	12.73	-10.50	262	Deceleration	-32	38
2025-07-11	12.30	12.76	-11.67	1617	Deceleration	-15	25
2025-07-04	12.90	12.82	-6.09	290	Deceleration	29	20
2025-06-27	12.90	12.85	-6.19	161	Rotation Up	38	22
2025-06-20	13.20	12.90	-2.98	614	Rotation Up	58	41
2025-06-13	13.40	12.93	-2.87	196	Rotation Up	37	56
2025-06-06	13.40	12.97	-4.52	289	Rotation Up	35	55
2025-05-30	13.30	13.04	-4.67	469	Rotation Up	32	51
2025-05-23	13.60	13.11	-2.36	860	Downward Expansion	48	36
2025-05-16	13.20	13.15	-7.13	402	Downward Expansion	6	15
2025-05-09	13.20	13.19	-5.52	913	Downward Expansion	9	16
2025-05-02	12.50	13.25	-10.90	77	Downward Expansion	-19	17
2025-04-25	13.00	13.30	-4.69	134	Downward Expansion	2	31
2025-04-18	13.20	13.32	-0.02	400	Downward Expansion	17	34
2025-04-11	12.80	13.34	-0.64	1282	Downward Expansion	-14	26
2025-04-04	13.20	13.37	-0.09	482	Downward Expansion	1	22
2025-03-28	12.60	13.38	-12.33	128	Downward Expansion	-46	45
2025-03-21	12.50	13.45	-14.52	177	Downward Expansion	-46	37
2025-03-14	12.60	13.51	-13.86	2488	Downward Expansion	-48	39
2025-03-07	12.30	13.58	-17.07	1047	Downward Expansion	-62	50
2025-02-28	12.40	13.67	-16.62	1411	Downward Expansion	-60	51
2025-02-21	12.30	13.76	-18.03	61	Downward Expansion	-64	53
2025-02-14	12.30	13.88	-18.69	602	Downward Expansion	-64	52
2025-02-07	12.50	13.96	-15.70	15	Downward Expansion	-61	52
2025-01-31	12.50	14.03	-15.81	628	Downward Expansion	-64	70
2025-01-24	12.30	14.09	-17.32	518	Downward Expansion	-67	79
2025-01-17	12.40	14.16	-14.72	291	Downward Expansion	-67	82
2025-01-10	12.30	14.22	-12.65	494	Downward Expansion	-74	84
2025-01-03	12.50	14.28	-9.77	3623	Downward Expansion	-74	79
2024-12-27	12.00	14.35	-14.54	10087	Downward Expansion	-89	82
2024-12-20	13.20	14.42	-5.35	2338	Balance	-76	68
2024-12-13	14.00	14.47	-1.68	621	Balance	-47	37
2024-12-06	14.00	14.49	-1.99	494	Balance	-29	28
2024-11-29	14.40	14.51	3.19	103	Balance	-1	5
2024-11-22	14.00	14.52	-0.22	979	Rotation Up	32	23
2024-11-15	14.60	14.55	3.44	4980	Rotation Up	59	55
2024-11-08	15.40	14.56	7.74	168	Rotation Up	45	59
2024-11-01	15.60	14.57	7.86	631	Balance	44	41
2024-10-25	14.60	14.53	-0.60	5814	Balance	-15	21
2024-10-18	14.60	14.51	-2.78	885	Downward Expansion	-21	16
2024-10-11	14.80	14.50	-1.71	577	Downward Expansion	-23	17
2024-10-04	14.00	14.50	-7.11	148	Downward Expansion	-61	63
2024-09-27	13.80	14.53	-12.04	205	Downward Expansion	-65	76
2024-09-20	13.80	14.57	-9.52	435	Downward Expansion	-67	76
2024-09-13	13.70	14.64	-10.43	130	Downward Expansion	-74	73
2024-09-06	13.50	14.71	-11.11	1049	Balance	-82	55
2024-08-30	14.50	14.77	-8.82	287	Balance	-22	22
2024-08-23	14.30	14.80	-10.19	144	Rotation Up	-25	14
2024-08-16	14.70	14.84	-6.89	184	Rotation Up	16	33
2024-08-09	15.00	14.86	-3.36	62	Rotation Up	21	50
2024-08-02	15.10	14.87	-3.05	247	Rotation Up	21	43
2024-07-26	15.90	14.88	-2.09	911	Rotation Up	45	46
2024-07-19	14.90	14.86	-8.93	171	Downward Expansion	-17	13
2024-07-12	14.60	14.88	-13.55	253	Downward Expansion	-54	33
2024-07-05	14.10	14.90	-16.57	154	Downward Expansion	-67	51
2024-06-28	14.40	14.97	-13.30	572	Downward Expansion	-57	44
2024-06-21	14.30	15.04	-16.16	494	Downward Expansion	-61	60
2024-06-14	14.20	15.13	-16.02	325	Downward Expansion	-65	50
2024-06-07	14.40	15.22	-20.76	55	Downward Expansion	-59	46
2024-05-31	14.20	15.29	-22.37	1570	Downward Expansion	-67	49
2024-05-24	14.80	15.39	-20.70	190	Downward Expansion	-51	33
2024-05-17	14.50	15.50	-23.54	127	Downward Expansion	-57	37
2024-05-10	14.60	15.62	-24.03	129	Downward Expansion	-45	28
2024-05-03	14.60	15.73	-22.09	511	Downward Expansion	-42	22
2024-04-26	14.90	15.87	-22.29	1442	Downward Expansion	-36	19
2024-04-19	15.00	16.04	-21.64	1147	Downward Expansion	-43	30
2024-04-12	15.60	16.17	-18.86	976	Downward Expansion	-54	46
2024-04-05	14.40	16.32	-25.97	1014	Downward Expansion	-68	83
2024-03-29	14.20	16.51	-28.71	641	Downward Expansion	-80	90
2024-03-22	14.30	16.72	-28.24	1169	Downward Expansion	-83	83
2024-03-15	14.70	16.92	-26.93	1117	Downward Expansion	-78	61
2024-03-08	15.00	17.10	-24.79	285	Downward Expansion	-69	49
2024-03-01	15.00	17.26	-24.37	1222	Downward Expansion	-62	45
2024-02-23	15.90	17.43	-20.66	361	Downward Expansion	-46	40
2024-02-16	15.80	17.57	-19.58	4037	Downward Expansion	-51	49
2024-02-09	15.10	17.73	-22.31	869	Downward Expansion	-74	65
2024-02-02	15.50	17.89	-20.12	5758	Downward Expansion	-64	61
2024-01-26	15.50	18.04	-20.86	656	Downward Expansion	-66	63
2024-01-19	15.30	18.19	-19.46	333	Downward Expansion	-70	79
2024-01-12	15.30	18.35	-20.81	607	Downward Expansion	-70	85
2024-01-05	15.30	18.53	-20.69	75	Downward Expansion	-73	86
2023-12-29	15.50	18.67	-21.34	1243	Downward Expansion	-70	78
2023-12-22	15.50	18.80	-22.06	1104	Downward Expansion	-74	71
2023-12-15	15.00	18.93	-25.29	3103	Downward Expansion	-88	72
2023-12-08	16.30	19.09	-18.57	1338	Downward Expansion	-74	69
2023-12-01	16.60	19.20	-15.39	1307	Downward Expansion	-72	80
2023-11-24	17.00	19.30	-13.00	288	Downward Expansion	-67	82
2023-11-17	16.80	19.40	-13.58	139	Downward Expansion	-76	88
2023-11-10	16.40	19.49	-13.66	1585	Downward Expansion	-89	91
2023-11-03	17.40	19.60	-8.68	5371	Downward Expansion	-80	87
2023-10-27	18.00	19.64	-2.25	4045	Downward Expansion	-75	84
2023-10-20	18.20	19.68	-1.58	117	Rotation Down	-73	80

Price vs TrendBelow-5.7%

Trend directionRising+3.1%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+8.7%

Fair Value directionMoving away-7.9%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+7.9%

Relative strength directionWeakening-9.0%

Price momentumNegative-6.5%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.19×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-68 / ±100

-9.7 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

77 /100

-8.0 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

ALAVI Directional State ↗ ALAVI Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance12

Rotation Up12

Upward Expansion17

Deceleration42

Rotation Down76

Downward Expansion92

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 12%Rotation Up 8%Upward Expansion 17%Deceleration 6%Rotation Down 7%Downward Expansion 49%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-10-02	2026-10-09	New	+1.9%
Rotation Down	2026-08-28	2026-09-25	Developing	-2.5%
Deceleration	2026-08-07	2026-08-21	New	-3.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-07-10	2026-07-31	New	-2.9%
Deceleration	2026-06-12	2026-07-03	New	+1.8%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-09	2026-06-05	Established	+18.9%
Balance	2025-10-24	2026-01-02	Developing	+4.7%
Downward Expansion	2025-08-29	2025-10-17	Developing	+3.2%
Rotation Down	2025-07-25	2025-08-22	Developing	-2.4%
Deceleration	2025-07-04	2025-07-18	New	-3.9%
Rotation Up	2025-05-30	2025-06-27	Developing	-3.0%
Downward Expansion	2024-12-27	2025-05-23	Established	+13.3%
Balance	2024-11-29	2024-12-20	New	-8.3%
Rotation Up	2024-11-08	2024-11-22	New	-9.1%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing30

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution58

Stage 4 · Declining44

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3B · Distribution. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^FCHI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 38/100
Current Relative Strength: 7.88
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -6.5%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -1.0%
Consumer Defensive regime cohort: 48th percentile21 in cohort

Test ALAVI trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.56×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.19×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore ALAVI Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 15.55falling

Slow Activity EUR 16.39falling

Trend Reference EUR 16.65-5.7% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 14.44+8.7% close margin

Structural low EUR 15.20shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +1.8%

Annualized volatility +12.4%

From structural high -14.7%

From structural low +28.7%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^FCHI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	31	+0.0%-8.8% to +10.3%	+48.4%	+41.9%	+0.9%	+80.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	10	+0.7%-13.9% to +6.7%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-3.4%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	+2.2%-17.2% to +15.3%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-1.7%	+16.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-7.5%-13.1% to +8.3%	+25.0%	+75.0%	-7.7%	+25.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

ALAVI Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map