GER · EQUITY · ENHANCED MARKET DYNAMICS

EBO

Erste Group Bank AG

DE · Financial Services · Banks - Regional

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EMD SCORE53/100

CURRENT COMPLETED-WEEK READ

Balanced

Constructive and cautious evidence are close enough to require confirmation. Conditions remain positive, but momentum has eased.

Constructive fade20% directional agreement74/100 evidence quality6/6 sources available

Completed week: 9 Oct 2026
Latest close: EUR 108.80
Evidence: 156 weeks

Four-week EMD change-47.6 pts

signed chart scale −100 to +100

Four-week price-10.9%

completed closing prices

Current directional run156 weeks

on the same side of EMD zero

Recent consistency13/13

recent readings above zero

COMPLETED-WEEK OVERVIEW

Price and market conditions over time

3 supportive · 1 cautious

Enhanced Market Dynamics and the price cycle156 completed weeks · bars use the left EMD axis; price uses the right axis.

20 Oct 2023–9 Oct 2026

Constructive EMDCautious EMDCompleted-week priceUp-cycle confirmationDown-cycle confirmation

Confirmation markers describe price-zone departures within this saved history. Earlier markers can change as the history changes; they are not a record of signals available in real time.

Cycle position 87%Current EMD +5.54-week EMD change -47.6Full saved history price range EUR 28.95–123.80

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close · EUR	EMD −100 to +100	Score /100	Agreement %	Coverage %
2023-10-20	28.95	16.2	58	20	83
2023-10-27	29.41	29.99	65	60	83
2023-11-03	30.76	45.5	73	60	83
2023-11-10	30.17	23.68	62	33	100
2023-11-17	32.10	60.21	80	100	100
2023-11-24	32.17	60.23	80	100	100
2023-12-01	33.45	69.2	85	100	100
2023-12-08	33.02	61.69	81	100	100
2023-12-15	32.27	41.49	71	67	100
2023-12-22	32.23	49.33	75	100	100
2023-12-29	32.82	50.39	75	100	100
2024-01-05	33.88	61.81	81	100	100
2024-01-12	35.05	72.24	86	100	100
2024-01-19	35.06	69.69	85	100	100
2024-01-26	35.73	75.46	88	100	100
2024-02-02	35.88	59.1	80	67	100
2024-02-09	35.35	63.58	82	100	100
2024-02-16	35.32	61.17	81	100	100
2024-02-23	35.29	57.4	79	100	100
2024-03-01	33.45	24.82	62	50	100
2024-03-08	33.73	38.84	69	100	100
2024-03-15	34.79	42.18	71	100	100
2024-03-22	35.94	48.92	74	100	100
2024-03-29	36.95	51.92	76	100	100
2024-04-05	37.43	56.86	78	100	100
2024-04-12	37.99	59.25	80	100	100
2024-04-19	38.32	66.84	83	100	100
2024-04-26	39.60	66.66	83	100	100
2024-05-03	39.88	67.88	84	100	100
2024-05-10	40.75	68.37	84	100	100
2024-05-17	42.81	84.26	92	100	100
2024-05-24	42.21	72.48	86	100	100
2024-05-31	42.85	79.34	90	100	100
2024-06-07	42.83	71.37	86	100	100
2024-06-14	39.95	49.56	75	67	100
2024-06-21	41.20	59.61	80	100	100
2024-06-28	42.08	59.19	80	100	100
2024-07-05	43.96	69.67	85	100	100
2024-07-12	44.21	65.89	83	100	100
2024-07-19	43.98	57.01	79	67	100
2024-07-26	45.28	70.65	85	100	100
2024-08-02	42.52	34.57	67	67	100
2024-08-09	43.37	61.06	81	100	100
2024-08-16	44.93	55.85	78	100	100
2024-08-23	45.83	69.8	85	100	100
2024-08-30	46.97	69.36	85	100	100
2024-09-06	45.45	40.2	70	67	100
2024-09-13	45.71	63.03	82	100	100
2024-09-20	45.93	57.24	79	100	100
2024-09-27	46.59	60.3	80	100	100
2024-10-04	46.08	44.05	72	67	100
2024-10-11	46.85	54.24	77	100	100
2024-10-18	47.78	57.67	79	100	100
2024-10-25	46.50	37.0	69	60	100
2024-11-01	49.02	73.07	87	100	100
2024-11-08	50.65	69.42	85	100	100
2024-11-15	50.37	70.32	85	100	100
2024-11-22	49.38	55.46	78	67	100
2024-11-29	49.59	71.59	86	100	100
2024-12-06	51.93	74.39	87	100	100
2024-12-13	56.30	90.91	95	100	100
2024-12-20	55.86	81.48	91	100	100
2024-12-27	56.15	74.28	87	100	100
2025-01-03	55.46	73.58	87	100	100
2025-01-10	57.25	78.48	89	100	100
2025-01-17	57.65	74.07	87	100	100
2025-01-24	59.76	77.03	89	100	100
2025-01-31	56.64	47.73	74	67	100
2025-02-07	58.41	68.88	84	100	100
2025-02-14	63.29	80.91	90	100	100
2025-02-21	62.76	53.03	77	67	100
2025-02-28	61.14	53.97	77	67	100
2025-03-07	64.38	82.52	91	100	100
2025-03-14	64.17	78.99	89	100	100
2025-03-21	64.09	68.87	84	100	100
2025-03-28	62.11	52.35	76	67	100
2025-04-04	54.19	20.31	60	60	100
2025-04-11	55.17	34.23	67	100	100
2025-04-18	58.83	35.39	68	60	100
2025-04-25	59.82	30.11	65	60	100
2025-05-02	56.35	4.81	52	0	100
2025-05-09	66.52	61.97	81	67	100
2025-05-16	68.47	58.51	79	100	100
2025-05-23	66.76	54.51	77	100	100
2025-05-30	70.14	63.88	82	100	100
2025-06-06	72.32	64.28	82	100	100
2025-06-13	70.63	58.49	79	100	100
2025-06-20	69.49	57.92	79	100	100
2025-06-27	70.78	58.74	79	100	100
2025-07-04	70.43	56.23	78	100	100
2025-07-11	73.26	65.42	83	100	100
2025-07-18	75.89	72.84	86	100	100
2025-07-25	77.04	72.59	86	100	100
2025-08-01	78.52	64.77	82	67	100
2025-08-08	84.63	81.84	91	100	100
2025-08-15	87.36	84.67	92	100	100
2025-08-22	83.54	63.82	82	67	100
2025-08-29	80.71	52.1	76	67	100
2025-09-05	80.71	55.29	78	67	100
2025-09-12	81.95	55.6	78	67	100
2025-09-19	83.24	71.85	86	100	100
2025-09-26	83.98	72.3	86	100	100
2025-10-03	86.47	75.89	88	100	100
2025-10-10	83.44	52.54	76	67	100
2025-10-17	81.45	45.16	73	67	100
2025-10-24	82.00	44.21	72	67	100
2025-10-31	88.20	67.29	84	100	100
2025-11-07	88.45	50.8	75	67	100
2025-11-14	89.74	48.53	74	67	100
2025-11-21	88.30	58.64	79	100	100
2025-11-28	93.17	65.22	83	100	100
2025-12-05	95.25	66.59	83	100	100
2025-12-12	95.75	59.25	80	67	100
2025-12-19	100.96	76.17	88	100	100
2025-12-26	100.96	78.0	89	100	100
2026-01-02	102.55	74.29	87	100	100
2026-01-09	103.24	73.12	87	100	100
2026-01-16	103.34	71.94	86	100	100
2026-01-23	107.71	78.97	89	100	100
2026-01-30	108.80	75.02	88	100	100
2026-02-06	107.02	62.64	81	67	100
2026-02-13	100.76	48.65	74	67	100
2026-02-20	105.23	70.29	85	100	100
2026-02-27	99.87	41.77	71	67	100
2026-03-06	94.51	27.07	64	60	100
2026-03-13	91.13	13.86	57	50	100
2026-03-20	89.39	5.84	53	20	100
2026-03-27	91.18	11.91	56	0	100
2026-04-03	92.82	10.11	55	0	100
2026-04-10	103.14	48.0	74	67	100
2026-04-17	107.31	48.08	74	67	100
2026-04-24	99.70	30.25	65	33	100
2026-05-01	96.05	20.05	60	33	100
2026-05-08	98.40	25.19	63	60	100
2026-05-15	97.55	16.89	58	20	100
2026-05-22	98.50	18.45	59	50	100
2026-05-29	103.00	36.39	68	67	100
2026-06-05	102.30	37.88	69	100	100
2026-06-12	108.40	56.65	78	100	100
2026-06-19	115.80	65.38	83	100	100
2026-06-26	115.80	66.99	83	100	100
2026-07-03	118.50	69.2	85	100	100
2026-07-10	117.80	67.15	84	100	100
2026-07-17	112.20	55.84	78	100	100
2026-07-24	115.10	61.55	81	100	100
2026-07-31	113.10	46.11	73	67	100
2026-08-07	119.70	49.77	75	67	100
2026-08-14	123.10	68.64	84	100	100
2026-08-21	121.50	68.58	84	100	100
2026-08-28	123.00	70.75	85	100	100
2026-09-04	123.80	69.01	85	100	100
2026-09-11	122.10	53.12	77	67	100
2026-09-18	118.60	47.37	74	67	100
2026-09-25	123.10	72.11	86	100	100
2026-10-02	113.50	22.62	61	60	100
2026-10-09	108.80	5.55	53	20	100

SIX SOURCES · LAST 26 OBSERVATIONS

Is support broadening or thinning?

Green is supportive, rose is cautious.
Grey means the reading is unavailable.

Reading	17 Apr	24 Apr	1 May	8 May	15 May	22 May	29 May	5 Jun	12 Jun	19 Jun	26 Jun	3 Jul	10 Jul	17 Jul	24 Jul	31 Jul	7 Aug	14 Aug	21 Aug	28 Aug	4 Sep	11 Sep	18 Sep	25 Sep	2 Oct	9 Oct
Trend	97	82	66	74	68	70	84	81	94	99	98	99	98	94	96	94	98	99	99	99	99	98	95	98	82	64
Momentum	81	68	57	45	43	51	72	73	87	93	91	93	85	61	73	68	80	91	86	89	83	71	62	69	48	44
Underlying pressure	38	44	43	42	38	36	41	46	59	72	79	85	87	84	81	76	76	82	86	90	90	89	85	80	68	53
Price & volume	58	40	42	56	49	52	58	49	54	51	50	50	49	50	54	41	32	51	53	54	51	33	35	85	11	9
Relative strength	97	91	80	84	84	74	83	83	93	97	97	95	96	92	93	85	90	93	92	90	93	93	89	93	76	61
Modeled Trend	88	87	86	84	83	82	82	82	83	84	85	85	86	87	88	89	89	90	90	91	91	91	91	91	91	91

Each cell is a finished component score from 0–100. Components can disagree even when the combined reading stays positive.

STRONGEST CURRENT SOURCE

Modeled Trend

91/100

LEAST SUPPORTIVE SOURCE

Price & volume

9/100

WHAT WOULD CHANGE THE READ?

Three paths to keep in view

Conditional research scenarios.
No assumed price target or timing.

Continuation

Price and evidence stay together

Look for the current direction to hold across trend, pressure and relative strength. A rising price with weaker EMD is a less convincing continuation.

Change of direction

Watch for loss of support

If price keeps rising while EMD falls, inspect which readings are weakening. Broad deterioration matters more than a single soft week.

Cycle context

A range extreme is a location

An upper zone can persist during a strong advance; a lower zone can persist during a decline. Use departures, EMD direction and the related price charts together.

EARLIER COMPARABLE READINGS

What followed similar conditions?

Same ticker · similar score and direction of change.
Returns exclude costs and dividends.

4 WEEKS LATER+8.6%

Median price return · 4 non-overlapping examples

Observed range: +4.0% to +24.5%
Positive returns: 100%
All-period comparison: +3.7% median

13 WEEKS LATER

Too few comparisons

2 non-overlapping examples. At least three are needed to display a summary.

How these comparisons are selected

Earlier observations must have the same constructive/fading/repair/deterioration condition, a score within ten points of today’s score and at least the same component coverage. The first 30 observations are omitted for warm-up; examples are spaced by the forward horizon to avoid overlap. Gapped return windows are excluded. The all-period comparison uses the same available history and spacing, without matching the current state. These are reconstructed observations, not a point-in-time strategy backtest or a forecast.

RECENT CYCLE HISTORY

How the current reading developed

4 Apr 2025Down-cycle confirmedEUR 54.19

12 Apr 2024Upper cycle zone confirmedEUR 37.99

THE FULL PRICE CYCLE

Follow the journey from one zone to the other

Cycle states use trailing completed-week observations.

Lower zone

Price establishes residence near the bottom of its long-cycle range. Improving EMD separates early repair from continued deterioration.

Upward journey

Price leaves the lower zone while EMD confirms improving participation. The objective is the broader move toward the upper zone, not a short weekly trade.

Upper zone

Price establishes residence near the top of its long-cycle range. A high range position can persist. Watch EMD for exhaustion and loss of support before interpreting it as a turn.

Downward journey

Price leaves the upper zone while EMD weakens. The reverse cycle remains active until lower-zone residence is confirmed again.

CURRENT READINGS