Weekly structural research · GER · Financial Services

EBO Stage Analysis

Erste Group Bank AG

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close EUR 113.50Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^GDAXI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Established expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 34−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 24/100directional strength

Maturity 90/100lifecycle context

Confidence 87/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +64.7%EUR 68.93 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	113.50	109.19	6.99	5907	Upward Expansion	34	24
2026-09-25	123.10	108.55	15.73	4608	Upward Expansion	69	56
2026-09-18	118.60	107.78	12.64	3939	Upward Expansion	63	58
2026-09-11	122.10	107.33	15.39	2391	Upward Expansion	67	74
2026-09-04	123.80	106.62	15.55	1368	Upward Expansion	73	86
2026-08-28	123.00	106.06	13.25	167	Upward Expansion	75	88
2026-08-21	121.50	105.59	14.40	429	Upward Expansion	72	79
2026-08-14	123.10	105.13	15.24	626	Upward Expansion	84	74
2026-08-07	119.70	104.47	13.15	668	Upward Expansion	78	59
2026-07-31	113.10	103.92	10.34	867	Upward Expansion	61	54
2026-07-24	115.10	103.57	15.25	173	Upward Expansion	65	77
2026-07-17	112.20	103.10	14.34	320	Upward Expansion	67	84
2026-07-10	117.80	102.72	19.72	428	Upward Expansion	74	90
2026-07-03	118.50	101.99	18.08	633	Upward Expansion	83	90
2026-06-26	115.80	101.21	21.55	168	Upward Expansion	81	84
2026-06-19	115.80	100.46	21.08	548	Upward Expansion	82	77
2026-06-12	108.40	99.54	15.92	2612	Balance	59	54
2026-06-05	102.30	98.92	9.62	899	Balance	39	25
2026-05-29	103.00	98.46	9.50	7735	Balance	40	17
2026-05-22	98.50	97.97	6.27	2502	Balance	14	9
2026-05-15	97.55	97.42	10.01	5644	Balance	14	7
2026-05-08	98.40	96.88	9.88	9609	Balance	32	21
2026-05-01	96.05	96.38	8.15	7694	Balance	28	25
2026-04-24	99.70	96.06	13.92	7219	Balance	34	29
2026-04-17	107.31	95.54	20.70	5630	Balance	50	29
2026-04-10	103.14	94.74	21.41	11701	Rotation Down	19	18
2026-04-03	92.82	94.03	13.24	15778	Rotation Down	-24	42
2026-03-27	91.18	93.63	16.45	15346	Deceleration	-26	40
2026-03-20	89.39	93.28	14.59	27172	Deceleration	-18	36
2026-03-13	91.13	93.08	12.24	11480	Deceleration	-10	24
2026-03-06	94.51	92.96	16.40	15894	Deceleration	19	23
2026-02-27	99.87	92.63	15.54	6805	Upward Expansion	46	33
2026-02-20	105.23	91.91	22.71	6215	Upward Expansion	64	53
2026-02-13	100.76	90.98	20.05	11545	Upward Expansion	66	60
2026-02-06	107.02	90.15	29.41	5837	Upward Expansion	70	67
2026-01-30	108.80	89.02	33.82	4798	Upward Expansion	84	81
2026-01-23	107.71	87.74	31.95	4784	Upward Expansion	86	80
2026-01-16	103.34	86.51	25.75	6454	Upward Expansion	74	86
2026-01-09	103.24	85.38	26.80	3718	Upward Expansion	78	91
2026-01-02	102.55	84.30	30.63	1852	Upward Expansion	82	92
2025-12-26	100.96	83.29	30.75	5334	Upward Expansion	82	91
2025-12-19	100.96	82.26	32.10	3020	Upward Expansion	90	94
2025-12-12	95.75	81.12	26.86	5033	Upward Expansion	80	86
2025-12-05	95.25	80.21	27.98	7259	Upward Expansion	85	87
2025-11-28	93.17	79.25	27.30	3399	Upward Expansion	83	86
2025-11-21	88.30	78.03	25.63	6880	Upward Expansion	64	75
2025-11-14	89.74	77.08	24.48	7909	Upward Expansion	75	71
2025-11-07	88.45	76.05	25.20	7972	Upward Expansion	75	54
2025-10-31	88.20	74.94	23.71	13999	Upward Expansion	75	47
2025-10-24	82.00	73.80	14.51	13532	Upward Expansion	46	36
2025-10-17	81.45	73.14	16.45	7714	Upward Expansion	59	46
2025-10-10	83.44	72.56	18.03	6635	Upward Expansion	62	54
2025-10-03	86.47	71.92	22.46	7076	Upward Expansion	76	61
2025-09-26	83.98	71.18	23.07	4516	Upward Expansion	69	56
2025-09-19	83.24	70.42	23.44	6373	Upward Expansion	58	51
2025-09-12	81.95	69.74	22.11	10381	Upward Expansion	62	58
2025-09-05	80.71	69.12	21.61	3403	Upward Expansion	64	65
2025-08-29	80.71	68.37	20.83	11972	Upward Expansion	67	86
2025-08-22	83.54	67.57	23.46	4107	Upward Expansion	68	88
2025-08-15	87.36	66.78	30.00	8242	Upward Expansion	93	97
2025-08-08	84.63	65.79	27.97	8372	Upward Expansion	92	96
2025-08-01	78.52	64.88	23.39	7688	Upward Expansion	80	88
2025-07-25	77.04	64.11	17.88	3527	Upward Expansion	78	82
2025-07-18	75.89	63.41	16.39	4596	Upward Expansion	80	76
2025-07-11	73.26	62.74	13.09	6705	Upward Expansion	73	55
2025-07-04	70.43	62.18	11.39	2340	Upward Expansion	61	49
2025-06-27	70.78	61.56	11.26	2857	Upward Expansion	64	58
2025-06-20	69.49	60.85	12.95	4693	Upward Expansion	64	70
2025-06-13	70.63	60.18	14.59	4206	Upward Expansion	68	77
2025-06-06	72.32	59.51	14.18	9326	Upward Expansion	76	82
2025-05-30	70.14	58.79	12.70	14993	Upward Expansion	73	76
2025-05-23	66.76	58.08	9.44	8130	Upward Expansion	62	64
2025-05-16	68.47	57.41	12.07	19162	Balance	68	56
2025-05-09	66.52	56.72	10.61	47527	Balance	50	26
2025-05-02	56.35	56.06	-4.15	30481	Balance	2	12
2025-04-25	59.82	55.72	5.79	10782	Balance	10	18
2025-04-18	58.83	55.28	9.54	20768	Upward Expansion	21	23
2025-04-11	55.17	54.85	7.42	33175	Upward Expansion	13	17
2025-04-04	54.19	54.53	4.62	23757	Upward Expansion	21	17
2025-03-28	62.11	54.24	10.68	8448	Upward Expansion	62	53
2025-03-21	64.09	53.74	12.72	9879	Upward Expansion	68	60
2025-03-14	64.17	53.13	13.11	26201	Upward Expansion	72	64
2025-03-07	64.38	52.49	14.13	16586	Upward Expansion	77	67
2025-02-28	61.14	51.79	11.39	15398	Upward Expansion	65	62
2025-02-21	62.76	51.17	16.45	19184	Upward Expansion	81	70
2025-02-14	63.29	50.58	16.99	8805	Upward Expansion	91	74
2025-02-07	58.41	49.94	12.23	7528	Upward Expansion	69	65
2025-01-31	56.64	49.47	9.64	13979	Upward Expansion	66	66
2025-01-24	59.76	49.04	17.95	4055	Upward Expansion	86	74
2025-01-17	57.65	48.45	17.12	6533	Upward Expansion	78	71
2025-01-10	57.25	47.91	20.90	10520	Upward Expansion	79	87
2025-01-03	55.46	47.33	19.67	2932	Upward Expansion	67	88
2024-12-27	56.15	46.91	21.41	3907	Upward Expansion	80	93
2024-12-20	55.86	46.47	22.27	15916	Upward Expansion	87	94
2024-12-13	56.30	46.01	20.97	10389	Upward Expansion	94	85
2024-12-06	51.93	45.56	12.48	5209	Upward Expansion	83	72
2024-11-29	49.59	45.19	12.12	5776	Upward Expansion	64	77
2024-11-22	49.38	44.86	13.87	8412	Upward Expansion	66	83
2024-11-15	50.37	44.54	17.38	6389	Upward Expansion	80	90
2024-11-08	50.65	44.14	18.63	4196	Upward Expansion	88	89
2024-11-01	49.02	43.71	15.22	7771	Upward Expansion	81	68
2024-10-25	46.50	43.33	8.62	1811	Upward Expansion	60	46
2024-10-18	47.78	43.01	10.89	3387	Upward Expansion	73	55
2024-10-11	46.85	42.62	10.79	1227	Upward Expansion	65	49
2024-10-04	46.08	42.21	10.89	3173	Upward Expansion	58	46
2024-09-27	46.59	41.80	10.56	4101	Upward Expansion	67	50
2024-09-20	45.93	41.36	13.86	1774	Upward Expansion	63	53
2024-09-13	45.71	41.01	14.03	3733	Upward Expansion	62	64
2024-09-06	45.45	40.66	16.49	7109	Upward Expansion	62	65
2024-08-30	46.97	40.33	17.21	4202	Upward Expansion	81	63
2024-08-23	45.83	39.96	16.72	6228	Upward Expansion	75	54
2024-08-16	44.93	39.62	16.98	1006	Upward Expansion	72	52
2024-08-09	43.37	39.29	17.33	4548	Upward Expansion	60	49
2024-08-02	42.52	39.01	15.99	7701	Upward Expansion	65	59
2024-07-26	45.28	38.72	18.97	1888	Upward Expansion	82	90
2024-07-19	43.98	38.31	17.74	2759	Upward Expansion	71	79
2024-07-12	44.21	37.92	15.27	429	Upward Expansion	81	67
2024-07-05	43.96	37.52	16.89	8326	Upward Expansion	82	58
2024-06-28	42.08	37.16	13.96	1889	Upward Expansion	58	49
2024-06-21	41.20	36.87	12.55	1910	Upward Expansion	54	53
2024-06-14	39.95	36.57	10.69	3146	Upward Expansion	67	64
2024-06-07	42.83	36.30	15.65	1994	Upward Expansion	74	88
2024-05-31	42.85	35.88	16.68	5925	Upward Expansion	81	92
2024-05-24	42.21	35.48	14.37	6318	Upward Expansion	79	90
2024-05-17	42.81	35.05	16.53	9389	Upward Expansion	93	96
2024-05-10	40.75	34.59	11.19	3508	Upward Expansion	85	91
2024-05-03	39.88	34.21	14.06	8670	Upward Expansion	82	90
2024-04-26	39.60	33.86	12.80	5607	Upward Expansion	87	94
2024-04-19	38.32	33.52	12.23	6349	Upward Expansion	80	91
2024-04-12	37.99	33.21	10.54	1474	Upward Expansion	82	90
2024-04-05	37.43	32.92	7.89	10778	Upward Expansion	82	79
2024-03-29	36.95	32.63	5.08	2301	Deceleration	80	55
2024-03-22	35.94	32.38	4.20	7816	Deceleration	59	32
2024-03-15	34.79	32.16	2.77	3930	Deceleration	38	26
2024-03-08	33.73	31.99	0.57	4898	Deceleration	39	27
2024-03-01	33.45	31.88	0.20	18727	Upward Expansion	47	41
2024-02-23	35.29	31.80	7.50	1383	Upward Expansion	63	63
2024-02-16	35.32	31.66	9.62	3652	Upward Expansion	66	73
2024-02-09	35.35	31.51	11.06	7153	Upward Expansion	68	84
2024-02-02	35.88	31.31	12.93	6879	Upward Expansion	80	92
2024-01-26	35.73	31.07	12.40	11427	Upward Expansion	83	93
2024-01-19	35.06	30.84	13.28	5473	Upward Expansion	81	90
2024-01-12	35.05	30.59	12.53	7323	Upward Expansion	88	79
2024-01-05	33.88	30.37	9.83	3376	Upward Expansion	81	63
2023-12-29	32.82	30.18	5.59	618	Upward Expansion	68	58
2023-12-22	32.23	30.03	4.16	3842	Upward Expansion	65	74
2023-12-15	32.27	29.86	4.13	21874	Upward Expansion	67	84
2023-12-08	33.02	29.70	6.75	10971	Upward Expansion	77	91
2023-12-01	33.45	29.48	10.85	6937	Upward Expansion	89	91
2023-11-24	32.17	29.28	9.46	6923	Upward Expansion	79	82
2023-11-17	32.10	29.14	10.31	7518	Deceleration	80	75
2023-11-10	30.17	28.99	8.71	5391	Deceleration	52	41
2023-11-03	30.76	28.88	11.48	21094	Deceleration	53	30
2023-10-27	29.41	28.73	10.56	7455	Deceleration	25	12
2023-10-20	28.95	28.61	8.49	6510	Deceleration	10	7
2023-10-13	29.23	28.43	7.11	5747	Deceleration	26	12

Price vs TrendAbove+4.0%

Trend directionRising+5.4%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+64.7%

Fair Value directionMoving away-28.0%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+7.0%

Relative strength directionWeakening-11.1%

Price momentumPositive+22.3%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.53×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

34 / ±100

-39.4 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

24 /100

-62.5 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

EBO Directional State ↗ EBO Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance35

Rotation Up30

Upward Expansion62

Deceleration85

Rotation Down30

Downward Expansion23

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 8%Upward Expansion 81%Deceleration 9%Rotation Down 1%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-06-19	2026-10-02	Established	-2.0%
Balance	2026-04-17	2026-06-12	Developing	+1.0%
Rotation Down	2026-04-03	2026-04-10	New	+11.1%
Deceleration	2026-03-06	2026-03-27	New	-3.5%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-23	2026-02-27	Extended	+49.6%
Balance	2025-04-25	2025-05-16	New	+14.5%
Upward Expansion	2024-04-05	2025-04-18	Extended	+57.2%
Deceleration	2024-03-08	2024-03-29	New	+9.5%
Upward Expansion	2023-11-24	2024-03-01	Established	+4.0%
Deceleration	2023-09-08	2023-11-17	Developing	+12.0%
Upward Expansion	2023-07-07	2023-09-01	Developing	+3.8%
Balance	2023-06-23	2023-06-30	New	+5.5%
Deceleration	2023-03-24	2023-06-16	Established	+19.6%
Upward Expansion	2022-12-09	2023-03-17	Established	+3.9%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing6

Stage 2 · Advancing93

Stage 3 · Distribution77

Stage 4 · Declining7

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^GDAXI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 64/100
Current Relative Strength: 6.99
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +22.3%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +13.4%
Financial Services regime cohort: 30th percentile27 in cohort

Test EBO trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume3.19×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.53×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore EBO Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 118.91falling

Slow Activity EUR 114.77rising

Trend Reference EUR 109.19+4.0% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 68.93+64.7% close margin

Structural low EUR 92.55shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +4.5%

Annualized volatility +30.2%

From structural high -10.3%

From structural low +40.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^GDAXI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	46	+4.1%-35.2% to +15.1%	+71.7%	+71.7%	+3.4%	+87.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	17	+7.7%-26.6% to +27.1%	+82.4%	+82.4%	+8.9%	+76.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	9	+25.9%-39.1% to +45.6%	+88.9%	+88.9%	+12.5%	+77.8%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+46.7%-23.3% to +83.4%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+27.6%	+75.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

EBO Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map