SAU · EQUITY · ENHANCED MARKET DYNAMICS

1030

The Saudi Investment Bank

SA · Financial Services · Banks - Regional

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EMD SCORE71/100

CURRENT COMPLETED-WEEK READ

Strongly constructive

The latest completed-week readings are broadly supportive. Conditions remain positive, but momentum has eased.

Constructive fade67% directional agreement89/100 evidence quality6/6 sources available

Completed week: 9 Oct 2026
Latest close: SAR 11.66
Evidence: 156 weeks

Four-week EMD change-27.7 pts

signed chart scale −100 to +100

Four-week price-6.0%

completed closing prices

Current directional run19 weeks

on the same side of EMD zero

Recent consistency13/13

recent readings above zero

COMPLETED-WEEK OVERVIEW

Price and market conditions over time

5 supportive · 1 cautious

Enhanced Market Dynamics and the price cycle156 completed weeks · bars use the left EMD axis; price uses the right axis.

29 Sep 2023–9 Oct 2026

Constructive EMDCautious EMDCompleted-week priceUp-cycle confirmationDown-cycle confirmation

Confirmation markers describe price-zone departures within this saved history. Earlier markers can change as the history changes; they are not a record of signals available in real time.

Cycle position 92%Current EMD +42.54-week EMD change -27.7Full saved history price range SAR 8.17–12.41

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close · SAR	EMD −100 to +100	Score /100	Agreement %	Coverage %
2023-09-29	8.96	-16.15	42	50	83
2023-10-06	8.49	-34.29	33	60	83
2023-10-13	8.28	-38.17	31	60	83
2023-10-20	8.23	-29.13	35	60	100
2023-10-27	8.17	-31.82	34	60	100
2023-11-03	8.38	-21.89	39	20	100
2023-11-10	8.39	-30.5	35	60	100
2023-11-17	8.57	-16.1	42	0	100
2023-11-24	8.45	-25.86	37	33	100
2023-12-01	8.51	-15.45	42	20	100
2023-12-08	8.40	-24.48	38	50	100
2023-12-15	8.66	-15.65	42	20	100
2023-12-22	8.98	-1.15	49	0	100
2023-12-29	9.02	-8.19	46	20	100
2024-01-05	9.17	5.44	53	33	100
2024-01-12	9.17	3.08	52	0	100
2024-01-19	9.08	0.55	50	0	100
2024-01-26	9.08	0.51	50	0	100
2024-02-02	8.86	-10.28	45	20	100
2024-02-09	9.11	11.71	56	33	100
2024-02-16	9.20	10.99	55	60	100
2024-02-23	9.61	28.12	64	67	100
2024-03-01	9.42	18.94	59	33	100
2024-03-08	9.38	32.33	66	60	100
2024-03-15	9.41	32.61	66	60	100
2024-03-22	9.87	46.15	73	67	100
2024-03-29	9.64	32.45	66	33	100
2024-04-05	9.82	44.9	72	67	100
2024-04-19	9.70	34.7	67	33	100
2024-04-26	9.73	49.08	75	100	100
2024-05-03	9.91	53.03	77	100	100
2024-05-10	9.80	50.77	75	100	100
2024-05-17	9.51	32.3	66	60	100
2024-05-24	9.42	32.09	66	100	100
2024-05-31	9.29	26.8	63	100	100
2024-06-07	9.33	20.47	60	60	100
2024-06-14	9.42	14.46	57	33	100
2024-06-28	9.35	10.29	55	33	100
2024-07-05	8.87	-16.5	42	60	100
2024-07-12	9.17	1.29	51	0	100
2024-07-19	9.27	-4.78	48	50	100
2024-07-26	9.20	-8.62	46	50	100
2024-08-02	9.22	-7.89	46	33	100
2024-08-09	8.87	-19.94	40	60	100
2024-08-16	9.19	-3.03	48	0	100
2024-08-23	9.44	1.04	51	20	100
2024-08-30	9.49	1.83	51	0	100
2024-09-06	9.82	25.98	63	100	100
2024-09-13	9.71	23.71	62	60	100
2024-09-20	10.00	40.05	70	100	100
2024-09-27	10.03	37.6	69	100	100
2024-10-04	9.74	20.97	60	33	100
2024-10-11	9.88	50.03	75	100	100
2024-10-18	9.89	39.75	70	67	100
2024-10-25	9.70	30.67	65	67	100
2024-11-01	9.88	48.14	74	100	100
2024-11-08	9.97	50.39	75	100	100
2024-11-15	10.27	50.89	75	67	100
2024-11-22	10.42	67.45	84	100	100
2024-11-29	10.49	72.69	86	100	100
2024-12-06	10.90	77.44	89	100	100
2024-12-13	11.05	70.15	85	100	100
2024-12-20	10.69	63.1	82	100	100
2024-12-27	10.91	70.07	85	100	100
2025-01-03	10.87	64.23	82	100	100
2025-01-10	10.85	61.46	81	100	100
2025-01-17	10.93	64.17	82	100	100
2025-01-24	11.46	73.12	87	100	100
2025-01-31	11.31	65.19	83	100	100
2025-02-07	11.30	56.38	78	67	100
2025-02-14	11.46	68.68	84	100	100
2025-02-21	11.46	67.21	84	100	100
2025-02-28	11.10	47.9	74	67	100
2025-03-07	10.85	39.55	70	67	100
2025-03-14	10.76	41.22	71	100	100
2025-03-21	10.91	38.21	69	67	100
2025-03-28	11.22	40.25	70	67	100
2025-04-04	11.17	35.79	68	60	100
2025-04-11	10.90	37.15	69	67	100
2025-04-18	11.25	41.3	71	67	100
2025-04-25	11.65	50.43	75	100	100
2025-05-02	11.46	37.45	69	60	100
2025-05-09	11.45	47.04	74	100	100
2025-05-16	11.51	48.71	74	100	100
2025-05-23	11.37	39.89	70	100	100
2025-05-30	11.39	50.66	75	100	100
2025-06-06	11.11	25.38	63	60	100
2025-06-13	11.30	33.71	67	60	100
2025-06-20	10.85	7.44	54	20	100
2025-06-27	11.11	13.62	57	33	100
2025-07-04	11.28	16.35	58	33	100
2025-07-11	11.26	22.23	61	60	100
2025-07-18	11.08	9.64	55	20	100
2025-07-25	10.99	6.26	53	0	100
2025-08-01	11.07	7.33	54	20	100
2025-08-08	10.97	1.38	51	0	100
2025-08-15	10.89	3.0	51	20	100
2025-08-22	11.09	7.97	54	33	100
2025-08-29	10.75	-10.54	45	20	100
2025-09-05	10.53	-11.64	44	20	100
2025-09-12	10.49	-7.16	46	0	100
2025-09-19	10.62	-5.24	47	20	100
2025-09-26	11.46	17.82	59	60	100
2025-10-03	11.30	11.71	56	33	100
2025-10-10	11.11	2.92	51	0	100
2025-10-17	11.13	12.36	56	60	100
2025-10-24	10.89	-4.3	48	20	100
2025-10-31	10.88	-9.0	46	50	100
2025-11-07	10.53	-17.1	41	60	100
2025-11-14	10.31	-27.63	36	67	100
2025-11-21	10.31	-19.08	40	50	100
2025-11-28	10.26	-19.87	40	50	100
2025-12-05	10.35	-13.74	43	33	100
2025-12-12	10.50	-8.39	46	33	100
2025-12-19	10.13	-24.66	38	50	100
2025-12-26	10.31	-13.74	43	33	100
2026-01-02	10.45	-9.94	45	0	100
2026-01-09	10.35	-13.76	43	0	100
2026-01-16	10.54	-11.49	44	33	100
2026-01-23	10.76	-3.24	48	20	100
2026-01-30	11.08	9.82	55	100	100
2026-02-06	11.27	30.38	65	100	100
2026-02-13	11.09	16.23	58	50	100
2026-02-20	10.85	21.6	61	60	100
2026-02-27	10.69	17.18	59	50	100
2026-03-06	10.06	-3.92	48	20	100
2026-03-13	10.08	-10.59	45	33	100
2026-03-20	10.24	-6.67	47	33	100
2026-03-27	10.43	-3.38	48	0	100
2026-04-03	10.54	2.26	51	0	100
2026-04-10	10.64	2.93	51	0	100
2026-04-17	10.89	7.54	54	20	100
2026-04-24	10.54	-3.56	48	20	100
2026-05-01	10.49	-8.28	46	50	100
2026-05-08	10.61	-0.4	50	0	100
2026-05-15	10.40	-15.27	42	60	100
2026-05-22	10.61	3.87	52	0	100
2026-06-05	10.65	7.76	54	50	100
2026-06-12	10.77	21.32	61	100	100
2026-06-19	10.83	21.23	61	60	100
2026-06-26	10.86	28.97	64	67	100
2026-07-03	10.78	33.72	67	100	100
2026-07-10	11.06	47.29	74	100	100
2026-07-17	10.97	40.95	70	100	100
2026-07-24	11.22	48.1	74	100	100
2026-07-31	11.22	51.68	76	100	100
2026-08-07	11.43	56.83	78	100	100
2026-08-14	11.66	65.28	83	100	100
2026-08-21	11.78	64.72	82	100	100
2026-08-28	12.08	67.58	84	100	100
2026-09-04	12.40	73.98	87	100	100
2026-09-11	12.41	70.16	85	100	100
2026-09-18	12.26	67.17	84	100	100
2026-09-25	12.11	63.82	82	100	100
2026-10-02	12.11	54.45	77	67	100
2026-10-09	11.66	42.47	71	67	100

SIX SOURCES · LAST 26 OBSERVATIONS

Is support broadening or thinning?

Green is supportive, rose is cautious.
Grey means the reading is unavailable.

Reading	10 Apr	17 Apr	24 Apr	1 May	8 May	15 May	22 May	5 Jun	12 Jun	19 Jun	26 Jun	3 Jul	10 Jul	17 Jul	24 Jul	31 Jul	7 Aug	14 Aug	21 Aug	28 Aug	4 Sep	11 Sep	18 Sep	25 Sep	2 Oct	9 Oct
Trend	33	42	29	29	34	27	35	72	76	78	78	74	83	80	86	85	89	93	94	96	98	98	97	95	94	85
Momentum	71	72	59	53	53	45	57	60	66	71	68	64	68	65	69	73	75	80	81	84	87	84	80	73	69	59
Underlying pressure	42	52	54	48	45	36	37	46	57	76	86	88	91	90	90	92	94	95	96	97	97	97	96	95	93	88
Price & volume	62	57	36	39	57	37	77	40	53	35	43	51	63	54	60	55	61	68	61	62	67	57	47	47	40	30
Relative strength	32	34	37	33	43	37	44	48	50	50	59	60	70	70	76	81	80	85	84	83	92	92	93	93	95	89
Modeled Trend	73	72	71	70	67	66	65	61	61	62	63	63	66	64	64	68	72	75	78	80	82	82	89	89	89	89

Each cell is a finished component score from 0–100. Components can disagree even when the combined reading stays positive.

STRONGEST CURRENT SOURCE

Relative strength

89/100

LEAST SUPPORTIVE SOURCE

Price & volume

30/100

WHAT WOULD CHANGE THE READ?

Three paths to keep in view

Conditional research scenarios.
No assumed price target or timing.

Continuation

Price and evidence stay together

Look for the current direction to hold across trend, pressure and relative strength. A rising price with weaker EMD is a less convincing continuation.

Change of direction

Watch for loss of support

If price keeps rising while EMD falls, inspect which readings are weakening. Broad deterioration matters more than a single soft week.

Cycle context

A range extreme is a location

An upper zone can persist during a strong advance; a lower zone can persist during a decline. Use departures, EMD direction and the related price charts together.

EARLIER COMPARABLE READINGS

What followed similar conditions?

Same ticker · similar score and direction of change.
Returns exclude costs and dividends.

4 WEEKS LATER+0.8%

Median price return · 8 non-overlapping examples

Observed range: -4.6% to +4.1%
Positive returns: 50%
All-period comparison: +0.9% median

13 WEEKS LATER+1.3%

Median price return · 3 non-overlapping examples

Observed range: -2.5% to +10.5%
Positive returns: 67%
All-period comparison: +3.0% median

How these comparisons are selected

Earlier observations must have the same constructive/fading/repair/deterioration condition, a score within ten points of today’s score and at least the same component coverage. The first 30 observations are omitted for warm-up; examples are spaced by the forward horizon to avoid overlap. Gapped return windows are excluded. The all-period comparison uses the same available history and spacing, without matching the current state. These are reconstructed observations, not a point-in-time strategy backtest or a forecast.

RECENT CYCLE HISTORY

How the current reading developed

24 Oct 2025Down-cycle confirmedSAR 10.89

25 Jul 2025Down-cycle confirmedSAR 10.99

20 Jun 2025Down-cycle confirmedSAR 10.85

25 Oct 2024Down-cycle confirmedSAR 9.70

24 May 2024Down-cycle confirmedSAR 9.42

22 Mar 2024Upper cycle zone confirmedSAR 9.87

THE FULL PRICE CYCLE

Follow the journey from one zone to the other

Cycle states use trailing completed-week observations.

Lower zone

Price establishes residence near the bottom of its long-cycle range. Improving EMD separates early repair from continued deterioration.

Upward journey

Price leaves the lower zone while EMD confirms improving participation. The objective is the broader move toward the upper zone, not a short weekly trade.

Upper zone

Price establishes residence near the top of its long-cycle range. A high range position can persist. Watch EMD for exhaustion and loss of support before interpreting it as a turn.

Downward journey

Price leaves the upper zone while EMD weakens. The reverse cycle remains active until lower-zone residence is confirmed again.

CURRENT READINGS