Weekly structural research · SAU · Financial Services

1030 Stage Analysis

The Saudi Investment Bank

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close SAR 12.11Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^TASI.SR

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Down · Structural failure

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -69−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 83/100directional strength

Maturity 16/100lifecycle context

Confidence 71/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -6.1%SAR 12.90 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	12.11	13.15	-3.56	3009654	Rotation Down	-69	83
2026-09-25	12.11	13.17	-5.55	1781641	Rotation Down	-47	53
2026-09-18	12.26	13.21	-6.17	1901139	Rotation Down	-37	42
2026-09-11	12.41	13.26	-7.16	2820386	Rotation Down	-20	20
2026-09-04	12.40	13.32	-7.64	4165966	Rotation Down	15	17
2026-08-28	14.49	13.38	5.74	2102714	Upward Expansion	87	88
2026-08-21	14.14	13.36	5.90	3574370	Rotation Up	79	81
2026-08-14	13.99	13.34	6.02	2473230	Rotation Up	50	63
2026-08-07	13.72	13.32	3.95	3653817	Balance	39	38
2026-07-31	13.47	13.30	4.45	2738862	Balance	26	17
2026-07-24	13.47	13.29	2.38	2486967	Balance	19	13
2026-07-17	13.16	13.27	0.74	1346756	Balance	-13	10
2026-07-10	13.27	13.26	0.66	2805817	Rotation Up	13	23
2026-07-03	13.31	13.26	0.73	2484430	Rotation Up	14	26
2026-06-26	13.41	13.25	0.44	3864085	Balance	19	23
2026-06-19	13.38	13.24	-1.54	2719120	Balance	15	15
2026-06-12	13.30	13.23	-1.57	1690656	Balance	-21	13
2026-06-05	13.16	13.22	-2.32	4030667	Downward Expansion	-36	20
2026-05-29	13.10	13.22	-3.20	0	Downward Expansion	-48	29
2026-05-22	13.10	13.24	-3.38	4137786	Downward Expansion	-48	35
2026-05-15	12.85	13.27	-5.12	2264118	Downward Expansion	-56	41
2026-05-08	13.10	13.31	-3.71	1896178	Downward Expansion	-44	22
2026-05-01	12.95	13.34	-6.24	1887903	Downward Expansion	-42	21
2026-04-24	13.01	13.38	-5.30	2228916	Downward Expansion	-38	16
2026-04-17	13.45	13.43	-5.98	1513996	Downward Expansion	-25	13
2026-04-10	13.14	13.43	-6.55	1992930	Downward Expansion	-47	24
2026-04-03	13.31	13.43	-4.77	4511463	Downward Expansion	-51	43
2026-03-27	13.17	13.43	-4.27	1862540	Downward Expansion	-56	47
2026-03-20	12.94	13.45	-4.69	936810	Downward Expansion	-56	46
2026-03-13	12.74	13.48	-5.68	2792357	Rotation Up	-53	40
2026-03-06	12.71	13.52	-4.87	4331789	Rotation Up	-32	20
2026-02-27	13.50	13.55	1.71	4692685	Rotation Up	20	27
2026-02-20	13.71	13.57	1.21	4123980	Rotation Up	25	53
2026-02-13	14.01	13.58	0.75	2961945	Rotation Up	29	60
2026-02-06	14.24	13.58	3.10	3842033	Rotation Up	43	51
2026-01-30	14.00	13.57	-0.16	2929934	Downward Expansion	34	30
2026-01-23	13.59	13.58	-0.80	1605570	Downward Expansion	-17	16
2026-01-16	13.32	13.60	0.14	2166337	Downward Expansion	-38	23
2026-01-09	13.07	13.61	1.66	1510549	Downward Expansion	-44	34
2026-01-02	13.20	13.65	2.12	1022560	Downward Expansion	-54	38
2025-12-26	13.02	13.68	1.13	1126226	Downward Expansion	-58	46
2025-12-19	12.80	13.72	0.26	3600303	Downward Expansion	-69	51
2025-12-12	13.27	13.78	1.51	1181273	Downward Expansion	-60	58
2025-12-05	13.07	13.82	0.96	1716966	Downward Expansion	-63	71
2025-11-28	12.96	13.87	0.10	3016184	Downward Expansion	-70	74
2025-11-21	13.03	13.92	-2.62	2132715	Downward Expansion	-68	68
2025-11-14	13.02	13.97	-4.04	2511754	Balance	-71	58
2025-11-07	13.30	14.01	-2.96	2164516	Balance	-61	35
2025-10-31	13.75	14.03	-2.50	1937316	Balance	-23	10
2025-10-24	13.76	14.04	-1.84	1820838	Balance	-17	15
2025-10-17	14.06	14.05	-0.18	2631475	Balance	11	22
2025-10-10	14.03	14.04	0.82	2322326	Balance	-3	14
2025-10-03	14.28	14.03	3.69	3592301	Downward Expansion	-14	11
2025-09-26	14.48	14.01	7.25	5188944	Downward Expansion	-18	17
2025-09-19	13.41	13.99	4.62	3302727	Downward Expansion	-60	66
2025-09-12	13.25	14.03	6.95	1563121	Downward Expansion	-70	63
2025-09-05	13.30	14.07	5.71	2251021	Downward Expansion	-72	57
2025-08-29	13.58	14.10	7.56	3688082	Balance	-65	46
2025-08-22	14.01	14.13	10.09	2402821	Balance	-52	34
2025-08-15	13.76	14.14	9.01	3157994	Balance	-59	46
2025-08-08	13.86	14.14	9.37	2149152	Balance	-53	41
2025-08-01	13.99	14.14	11.04	1767875	Balance	-10	15
2025-07-25	13.88	14.13	10.52	1645235	Balance	-16	11
2025-07-18	13.97	14.13	11.16	1279921	Balance	-11	8
2025-07-11	14.22	14.11	11.04	1767293	Balance	14	13
2025-07-04	14.25	14.10	12.11	1950258	Balance	-4	10
2025-06-27	14.04	14.08	12.78	1833535	Balance	-11	18
2025-06-20	13.71	14.06	15.39	2453732	Balance	-14	17
2025-06-13	14.27	14.04	18.10	1162834	Upward Expansion	31	16
2025-06-06	14.04	14.00	15.03	2813470	Upward Expansion	29	16
2025-05-30	14.39	13.95	18.58	4244652	Upward Expansion	52	31
2025-05-23	14.37	13.88	16.96	2401205	Upward Expansion	55	38
2025-05-16	14.54	13.81	15.94	1436648	Upward Expansion	57	56
2025-05-09	14.46	13.75	17.08	1963304	Upward Expansion	56	53
2025-05-02	14.48	13.68	15.95	3806778	Deceleration	57	47
2025-04-25	14.72	13.61	16.12	2915749	Deceleration	65	41
2025-04-18	14.21	13.54	14.74	2935654	Deceleration	40	22
2025-04-11	13.76	13.49	12.13	5361609	Deceleration	18	10
2025-04-04	14.11	13.44	11.76	828101	Deceleration	26	13
2025-03-28	14.17	13.38	11.33	4038858	Deceleration	35	22
2025-03-21	13.71	13.31	10.58	3426658	Deceleration	26	22
2025-03-14	13.59	13.25	10.41	5746451	Deceleration	31	19
2025-03-07	13.71	13.18	11.00	3905592	Upward Expansion	44	30
2025-02-28	14.02	13.10	11.10	3728452	Upward Expansion	60	45
2025-02-21	14.48	13.02	12.71	3579747	Upward Expansion	68	57
2025-02-14	14.48	12.92	13.22	3060895	Upward Expansion	71	70
2025-02-07	14.27	12.83	11.63	2849472	Upward Expansion	65	54
2025-01-31	14.29	12.74	12.37	1774538	Upward Expansion	69	55
2025-01-24	14.48	12.64	14.84	3631444	Upward Expansion	79	58
2025-01-17	13.80	12.55	10.76	3145989	Upward Expansion	63	50
2025-01-10	13.71	12.49	11.80	1577652	Upward Expansion	61	52
2025-01-03	13.73	12.42	12.29	2539264	Upward Expansion	64	59
2024-12-27	13.78	12.36	15.42	1707723	Upward Expansion	70	77
2024-12-20	13.50	12.29	13.19	4046623	Upward Expansion	67	81
2024-12-13	13.95	12.24	15.42	5023094	Upward Expansion	85	92
2024-12-06	13.76	12.19	15.88	6530286	Upward Expansion	88	90
2024-11-29	13.25	12.15	14.78	5887730	Upward Expansion	76	79
2024-11-22	13.16	12.12	12.39	2655043	Upward Expansion	79	72
2024-11-15	12.97	12.09	11.53	6287399	Upward Expansion	75	47
2024-11-08	12.59	12.07	5.50	4309154	Upward Expansion	63	38
2024-11-01	12.48	12.05	5.59	4631859	Upward Expansion	49	32
2024-10-25	12.25	12.05	4.98	3518384	Upward Expansion	46	31
2024-10-18	12.50	12.04	6.98	4721165	Upward Expansion	62	49
2024-10-11	12.48	12.02	6.16	4193917	Rotation Up	63	64
2024-10-04	12.31	12.00	5.06	3876098	Rotation Up	36	60
2024-09-27	12.67	12.00	4.49	2442858	Rotation Up	39	65
2024-09-20	12.63	11.96	6.71	5112017	Rotation Up	40	59
2024-09-13	12.27	11.92	5.79	5565682	Balance	25	35
2024-09-06	12.40	11.89	4.66	3386392	Balance	30	28
2024-08-30	11.98	11.86	0.78	4832204	Balance	-19	11
2024-08-23	11.93	11.84	-0.20	4178734	Downward Expansion	-28	17
2024-08-16	11.61	11.83	-0.76	5328972	Downward Expansion	-49	33
2024-08-09	11.20	11.83	-2.38	5249587	Balance	-66	39
2024-08-02	11.64	11.83	-1.91	3128095	Balance	-22	18
2024-07-26	11.62	11.82	-2.06	2488343	Rotation Down	-25	32
2024-07-19	11.72	11.80	-2.72	3311039	Rotation Down	-17	29
2024-07-12	11.59	11.76	-0.71	4555043	Rotation Down	-19	33
2024-07-05	11.20	11.74	-3.03	6578812	Deceleration	-36	38
2024-06-28	11.81	11.72	1.46	10190226	Deceleration	6	14
2024-06-14	11.90	11.69	4.26	6438918	Deceleration	8	17
2024-06-07	11.79	11.64	2.69	4876971	Deceleration	6	17
2024-05-31	11.73	11.60	2.60	4294392	Deceleration	18	17
2024-05-24	11.90	11.56	-0.28	2641667	Deceleration	36	22
2024-05-17	12.01	11.51	-1.11	3045647	Upward Expansion	43	31
2024-05-10	12.38	11.45	1.07	4976614	Upward Expansion	57	43
2024-05-03	12.53	11.40	1.69	5786820	Upward Expansion	67	49
2024-04-26	12.29	11.36	0.47	7898258	Upward Expansion	58	46
2024-04-19	12.26	11.33	-1.87	5138703	Upward Expansion	60	57
2024-04-05	12.40	11.30	-2.42	3842935	Upward Expansion	69	64
2024-03-29	12.18	11.27	-3.26	4894292	Upward Expansion	63	59
2024-03-22	12.46	11.26	-3.29	6785863	Upward Expansion	78	68
2024-03-15	11.89	11.23	-7.08	5180636	Upward Expansion	61	65
2024-03-08	11.84	11.23	-6.52	4025321	Upward Expansion	60	65
2024-03-01	11.90	11.24	-6.68	8238110	Deceleration	65	64
2024-02-23	12.14	11.25	-5.14	10999273	Deceleration	50	39
2024-02-16	11.62	11.26	-8.33	3826144	Deceleration	34	24
2024-02-09	11.50	11.28	-7.44	5802900	Rotation Up	30	22
2024-02-02	11.19	11.30	-8.08	9291216	Rotation Up	18	22
2024-01-26	11.48	11.33	-7.93	3304907	Rotation Up	24	49
2024-01-19	11.48	11.35	-6.67	3709937	Rotation Up	25	54
2024-01-12	11.59	11.36	-7.30	3935881	Rotation Up	31	46
2024-01-05	11.59	11.36	-7.88	4469548	Downward Expansion	16	33
2023-12-29	11.39	11.37	-8.15	3704027	Downward Expansion	4	18
2023-12-22	11.35	11.39	-6.35	4430338	Downward Expansion	-14	16
2023-12-15	10.95	11.41	-9.40	6594870	Downward Expansion	-40	28
2023-12-08	10.62	11.44	-10.02	4190852	Downward Expansion	-44	34
2023-12-01	10.75	11.48	-8.92	5133340	Downward Expansion	-44	35
2023-11-24	10.67	11.50	-9.02	3758441	Downward Expansion	-47	40
2023-11-17	10.83	11.54	-7.97	3784497	Downward Expansion	-61	51
2023-11-10	10.60	11.56	-8.14	3967510	Downward Expansion	-65	73
2023-11-03	10.59	11.59	-8.56	7658967	Downward Expansion	-67	83
2023-10-27	10.32	11.61	-7.25	6372604	Downward Expansion	-78	91
2023-10-20	10.40	11.64	-8.73	9904081	Rotation Down	-81	87
2023-10-13	10.46	11.64	-7.74	4478309	Rotation Down	-59	75
2023-10-06	10.73	11.65	-6.98	2908751	Rotation Down	-56	68
2023-09-29	11.32	11.66	-4.51	1509406	Rotation Down	-30	52

Price vs TrendBelow-7.9%

Trend directionFalling-1.1%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-6.1%

Fair Value directionMoving away-10.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-3.6%

Relative strength directionWeakening-4.3%

Price momentumNegative-9.0%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.43×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-69 / ±100

-84.0 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

83 /100

+66.1 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

1030 Directional State ↗ 1030 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance19

Rotation Up11

Upward Expansion21

Deceleration34

Rotation Down81

Downward Expansion95

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-29 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 19%Rotation Up 12%Upward Expansion 24%Deceleration 11%Rotation Down 8%Downward Expansion 26%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Down	2026-09-04	2026-10-02	Developing	-2.4%
Upward Expansion	2026-08-28	2026-08-28	New	+0.0%
Rotation Up	2026-08-14	2026-08-21	New	+1.1%
Balance	2026-07-17	2026-08-07	New	+4.2%
Rotation Up	2026-07-03	2026-07-10	New	-0.3%
Balance	2026-06-12	2026-06-26	New	+0.8%
Downward Expansion	2026-03-20	2026-06-05	Developing	+1.7%
Rotation Up	2026-02-06	2026-03-13	Developing	-10.5%
Downward Expansion	2025-11-21	2026-01-30	Developing	+7.4%
Balance	2025-10-10	2025-11-14	Developing	-7.2%
Downward Expansion	2025-09-05	2025-10-03	Developing	+7.4%
Balance	2025-06-20	2025-08-29	Developing	-0.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-09	2025-06-13	Developing	-1.3%
Deceleration	2025-03-14	2025-05-02	Developing	+6.6%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing63

Stage 2 · Advancing16

Stage 3 · Distribution40

Stage 4 · Declining84

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^TASI.SR

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 58/100
Current Relative Strength: -3.56
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -9.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -1.3%
Financial Services regime cohort: 100th percentile3 in cohort

Test 1030 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.12×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.43×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+62.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 1030 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity SAR 12.20falling

Slow Activity SAR 13.12falling

Trend Reference SAR 13.15-7.9% close margin

Current Fair Value SAR 12.90-6.1% close margin

Structural low SAR 11.99shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Complete bearish ordering below the Trend Line confirms Downward Expansion; a repaired fast/slow cross and upside acceptance cancel the failure.

Range context +4.5%

Annualized volatility +24.2%

From structural high -16.7%

From structural low +1.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^TASI.SR	Regime survived	Read
Near term	7	+3.8%-8.0% to +6.6%	+57.1%	+42.9%	+1.6%	+42.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	4	+4.6%+0.4% to +10.7%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+6.0%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	4	+14.3%-3.0% to +41.8%	+75.0%	+25.0%	+9.9%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	+16.4%-7.8% to +72.4%	+66.7%	+33.3%	+5.8%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

1030 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map