NYSE · EQUITY · ENHANCED MARKET DYNAMICS

CVNA

Carvana Co

US · Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships

Open Chart Terminal

EMD SCORE39/100

CURRENT COMPLETED-WEEK READ

Cautious

The balance of evidence is weakening and risk control deserves more attention. Conditions are cautious and have weakened over the latest four completed weeks.

Deterioration60% directional agreement87/100 evidence quality6/6 sources available

Completed week: 9 Oct 2026
Latest close: USD 63.73
Evidence: 156 weeks

Four-week EMD change-25.0 pts

signed chart scale −100 to +100

Four-week price-7.9%

completed closing prices

Current directional run4 weeks

on the same side of EMD zero

Recent consistency4/13

recent readings above zero

COMPLETED-WEEK OVERVIEW

Price and market conditions over time

1 supportive · 4 cautious

Enhanced Market Dynamics and the price cycle156 completed weeks · bars use the left EMD axis; price uses the right axis.

20 Oct 2023–9 Oct 2026

Constructive EMDCautious EMDCompleted-week priceUp-cycle confirmationDown-cycle confirmation

Confirmation markers describe price-zone departures within this saved history. Earlier markers can change as the history changes; they are not a record of signals available in real time.

Cycle position 74%Current EMD -22.04-week EMD change -25.0Full saved history price range USD 5.72–94.66

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close · USD	EMD −100 to +100	Score /100	Agreement %	Coverage %
2023-10-20	6.21	27.58	64	20	83
2023-10-27	5.72	15.69	58	20	83
2023-11-03	6.46	40.24	70	60	83
2023-11-10	5.84	1.6	51	20	100
2023-11-17	6.41	17.33	59	20	100
2023-11-24	6.28	14.52	57	20	100
2023-12-01	7.04	30.83	65	60	100
2023-12-08	8.05	36.03	68	67	100
2023-12-15	10.28	60.6	80	100	100
2023-12-22	10.95	52.53	76	67	100
2023-12-29	10.59	55.72	78	67	100
2024-01-05	9.37	64.51	82	100	100
2024-01-12	8.56	34.01	67	33	100
2024-01-19	8.98	55.98	78	100	100
2024-01-26	8.36	36.38	68	67	100
2024-02-02	8.69	47.51	74	100	100
2024-02-09	10.63	70.52	85	100	100
2024-02-16	10.50	57.5	79	67	100
2024-02-23	13.85	78.44	89	100	100
2024-03-01	16.59	86.03	93	100	100
2024-03-08	17.06	78.56	89	100	100
2024-03-15	15.92	77.37	89	100	100
2024-03-22	17.19	79.58	90	100	100
2024-03-29	17.58	65.76	83	67	100
2024-04-05	16.77	69.54	85	100	100
2024-04-12	15.00	56.94	78	67	100
2024-04-19	14.27	61.77	81	100	100
2024-04-26	16.86	68.74	84	100	100
2024-05-03	24.33	87.45	94	100	100
2024-05-10	23.40	66.07	83	67	100
2024-05-17	23.50	67.27	84	67	100
2024-05-24	21.83	67.32	84	67	100
2024-05-31	20.00	54.73	77	67	100
2024-06-07	21.31	66.02	83	100	100
2024-06-14	20.61	49.57	75	67	100
2024-06-21	22.60	69.52	85	100	100
2024-06-28	25.74	76.29	88	100	100
2024-07-05	25.61	74.43	87	100	100
2024-07-12	27.25	79.11	90	100	100
2024-07-19	26.01	62.5	81	67	100
2024-07-26	26.57	73.94	87	100	100
2024-08-02	27.44	69.91	85	100	100
2024-08-09	27.18	70.01	85	100	100
2024-08-16	31.19	80.19	90	100	100
2024-08-23	31.96	79.55	90	100	100
2024-08-30	30.12	73.27	87	100	100
2024-09-06	26.68	58.84	79	67	100
2024-09-13	28.38	67.95	84	100	100
2024-09-20	34.77	79.88	90	100	100
2024-09-27	33.96	70.05	85	100	100
2024-10-04	36.03	78.52	89	100	100
2024-10-11	38.45	81.16	91	100	100
2024-10-18	38.26	74.93	87	100	100
2024-10-25	40.51	82.82	91	100	100
2024-11-01	45.82	77.57	89	100	100
2024-11-08	48.87	84.8	92	100	100
2024-11-15	48.20	69.43	85	67	100
2024-11-22	51.87	82.44	91	100	100
2024-11-29	52.08	79.59	90	100	100
2024-12-06	50.24	65.19	83	67	100
2024-12-13	49.65	75.25	88	100	100
2024-12-20	44.89	52.79	76	67	100
2024-12-27	43.02	58.17	79	100	100
2025-01-03	35.43	20.59	60	60	100
2025-01-10	38.61	39.68	70	100	100
2025-01-17	46.10	54.27	77	67	100
2025-01-24	48.09	50.9	75	60	100
2025-01-31	49.50	50.74	75	60	100
2025-02-07	52.81	63.33	82	100	100
2025-02-14	57.07	67.78	84	100	100
2025-02-21	44.66	20.57	60	20	100
2025-02-28	46.62	52.88	76	100	100
2025-03-07	37.69	6.78	53	20	100
2025-03-14	36.24	-1.79	49	0	100
2025-03-21	38.19	3.4	52	0	100
2025-03-28	40.88	2.49	51	33	100
2025-04-04	32.51	-14.92	43	33	100
2025-04-11	41.24	20.21	60	33	100
2025-04-18	42.28	13.11	57	20	100
2025-04-25	47.43	32.32	66	67	100
2025-05-02	51.42	36.62	68	67	100
2025-05-09	53.62	39.66	70	100	100
2025-05-16	59.98	51.42	76	100	100
2025-05-23	60.82	70.55	85	100	100
2025-05-30	65.43	74.21	87	100	100
2025-06-06	68.29	74.68	87	100	100
2025-06-13	59.41	54.72	77	67	100
2025-06-20	63.98	75.92	88	100	100
2025-06-27	63.85	68.02	84	100	100
2025-07-04	69.67	73.14	87	100	100
2025-07-11	68.73	63.53	82	67	100
2025-07-18	69.50	72.74	86	100	100
2025-07-25	66.42	68.2	84	100	100
2025-08-01	73.56	71.89	86	100	100
2025-08-08	69.51	59.24	80	67	100
2025-08-15	70.00	68.42	84	100	100
2025-08-22	71.56	72.91	86	100	100
2025-08-29	74.38	62.58	81	100	100
2025-09-05	73.78	60.77	80	100	100
2025-09-12	72.35	58.3	79	100	100
2025-09-19	78.38	70.36	85	100	100
2025-09-26	73.86	56.34	78	100	100
2025-10-03	75.14	48.86	74	67	100
2025-10-10	65.85	27.93	64	50	100
2025-10-17	66.76	21.68	61	20	100
2025-10-24	70.24	40.86	70	67	100
2025-10-31	61.31	-13.74	43	60	100
2025-11-07	60.80	-15.52	42	67	100
2025-11-14	63.66	-6.14	47	50	100
2025-11-21	61.98	-18.28	41	60	100
2025-11-28	74.90	34.18	67	67	100
2025-12-05	79.95	48.85	74	67	100
2025-12-12	91.14	62.21	81	100	100
2025-12-19	90.04	50.88	75	67	100
2025-12-26	87.69	69.39	85	100	100
2026-01-02	80.05	52.14	76	67	100
2026-01-09	92.62	72.93	86	100	100
2026-01-16	88.62	52.11	76	67	100
2026-01-23	94.66	70.99	85	100	100
2026-01-30	80.22	45.14	73	67	100
2026-02-06	80.73	55.99	78	100	100
2026-02-13	68.57	3.72	52	20	100
2026-02-20	67.32	-10.3	45	50	100
2026-02-27	66.83	-17.46	41	60	100
2026-03-06	63.54	-25.45	37	60	100
2026-03-13	60.03	-33.92	33	67	100
2026-03-20	56.26	-40.36	30	67	100
2026-03-27	60.41	-31.73	34	60	100
2026-04-03	62.78	-23.82	38	33	100
2026-04-10	67.26	-17.35	41	20	100
2026-04-17	77.51	9.3	55	50	100
2026-04-24	81.82	16.1	58	67	100
2026-05-01	76.52	1.08	51	20	100
2026-05-08	77.94	8.1	54	33	100
2026-05-15	67.17	-31.1	34	33	100
2026-05-22	68.28	-5.43	47	0	100
2026-05-29	73.00	-3.65	48	33	100
2026-06-05	66.51	-16.77	42	0	100
2026-06-12	64.10	-27.84	36	20	100
2026-06-19	66.56	-13.04	43	20	100
2026-06-26	62.35	-27.32	36	20	100
2026-07-03	68.60	-7.8	46	33	100
2026-07-10	65.83	-18.32	41	20	100
2026-07-17	67.34	-20.66	40	33	100
2026-07-24	60.46	-38.11	31	67	100
2026-07-31	62.36	-36.69	32	60	100
2026-08-07	70.85	-9.73	45	0	100
2026-08-14	75.59	5.89	53	33	100
2026-08-21	69.91	-2.94	49	0	100
2026-08-28	74.04	20.14	60	60	100
2026-09-04	74.59	25.1	63	60	100
2026-09-11	69.16	2.92	51	20	100
2026-09-18	65.11	-8.56	46	20	100
2026-09-25	65.06	-16.21	42	33	100
2026-10-02	63.77	-17.8	41	20	100
2026-10-09	63.73	-22.04	39	60	100

SIX SOURCES · LAST 26 OBSERVATIONS

Is support broadening or thinning?

Green is supportive, rose is cautious.
Grey means the reading is unavailable.

Reading	17 Apr	24 Apr	1 May	8 May	15 May	22 May	29 May	5 Jun	12 Jun	19 Jun	26 Jun	3 Jul	10 Jul	17 Jul	24 Jul	31 Jul	7 Aug	14 Aug	21 Aug	28 Aug	4 Sep	11 Sep	18 Sep	25 Sep	2 Oct	9 Oct
Trend	53	62	49	52	6	9	27	4	2	4	1	10	5	11	1	3	38	59	40	93	94	73	51	16	11	11
Momentum	63	62	68	69	40	42	57	46	56	66	45	69	59	47	34	28	57	76	70	71	71	49	43	44	35	42
Underlying pressure	25	33	42	53	57	61	65	64	64	64	61	58	56	49	38	31	30	36	51	64	72	70	65	56	49	42
Price & volume	67	57	38	51	11	95	61	47	4	46	20	59	41	46	37	48	61	63	51	53	55	39	32	47	59	54
Relative strength	54	71	40	37	6	7	14	6	4	6	3	9	5	8	2	3	12	26	12	25	28	13	6	6	5	4
Modeled Trend	70	68	67	67	65	64	64	64	64	65	64	65	64	63	62	62	61	62	63	62	65	67	69	70	72	73

Each cell is a finished component score from 0–100. Components can disagree even when the combined reading stays positive.

STRONGEST CURRENT SOURCE

Modeled Trend

73/100

LEAST SUPPORTIVE SOURCE

Relative strength

4/100

WHAT WOULD CHANGE THE READ?

Three paths to keep in view

Conditional research scenarios.
No assumed price target or timing.

Continuation

Price and evidence stay together

Further price weakness alongside cautious trend, pressure and relative strength would support the current defensive read.

Change of direction

Repair needs follow-through

Improving EMD while price still falls is an early observation. A turn in price and broader agreement would strengthen a repair case.

Cycle context

A range extreme is a location

An upper zone can persist during a strong advance; a lower zone can persist during a decline. Use departures, EMD direction and the related price charts together.

EARLIER COMPARABLE READINGS

What followed similar conditions?

Same ticker · similar score and direction of change.
Returns exclude costs and dividends.

4 WEEKS LATER+12.3%

Median price return · 7 non-overlapping examples

Observed range: -16.4% to +37.8%
Positive returns: 71%
All-period comparison: +2.7% median

13 WEEKS LATER+16.6%

Median price return · 4 non-overlapping examples

Observed range: +1.4% to +63.9%
Positive returns: 100%
All-period comparison: +12.5% median

How these comparisons are selected

Earlier observations must have the same constructive/fading/repair/deterioration condition, a score within ten points of today’s score and at least the same component coverage. The first 30 observations are omitted for warm-up; examples are spaced by the forward horizon to avoid overlap. Gapped return windows are excluded. The all-period comparison uses the same available history and spacing, without matching the current state. These are reconstructed observations, not a point-in-time strategy backtest or a forecast.

RECENT CYCLE HISTORY

How the current reading developed

18 Sep 2026Down-cycle confirmedUSD 65.11

15 May 2026Down-cycle confirmedUSD 67.17

13 Feb 2026Down-cycle confirmedUSD 68.57

7 Nov 2025Down-cycle confirmedUSD 60.80

7 Mar 2025Down-cycle confirmedUSD 37.69

3 Jan 2025Down-cycle confirmedUSD 35.43

3 May 2024Upper cycle zone confirmedUSD 24.33

THE FULL PRICE CYCLE

Follow the journey from one zone to the other

Cycle states use trailing completed-week observations.

Lower zone

Price establishes residence near the bottom of its long-cycle range. Improving EMD separates early repair from continued deterioration.

Upward journey

Price leaves the lower zone while EMD confirms improving participation. The objective is the broader move toward the upper zone, not a short weekly trade.

Upper zone

Price establishes residence near the top of its long-cycle range. A high range position can persist. Watch EMD for exhaustion and loss of support before interpreting it as a turn.

Downward journey

Price leaves the upper zone while EMD weakens. The reverse cycle remains active until lower-zone residence is confirmed again.

CURRENT READINGS