Weekly structural research · NYSE · Consumer Cyclical

CVNA Stage Analysis

Carvana Co

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 63.73Tenure EstablishedBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Balance after decline

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and expanding.

Direction -52−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 37/100directional strength

Maturity 53/100lifecycle context

Confidence 79/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedexpanding separation

Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +32.0%USD 48.27 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	63.73	68.16	-18.44	32703163	Balance	-52	37
2026-10-02	63.77	68.04	-17.75	53081917	Balance	-15	18
2026-09-25	65.06	68.03	-16.76	31188393	Balance	-10	9
2026-09-18	65.11	68.09	-16.08	43407046	Balance	14	9
2026-09-11	69.16	68.16	-11.51	24587971	Balance	50	35
2026-09-04	74.59	68.14	-5.66	28374163	Balance	55	48
2026-08-28	74.04	68.35	-6.57	33144234	Balance	53	34
2026-08-21	69.91	68.56	-11.69	60459694	Balance	5	11
2026-08-14	75.59	69.38	-6.18	36773327	Balance	-11	8
2026-08-07	70.85	69.81	-12.13	44854105	Balance	-27	15
2026-07-31	62.36	70.54	-20.22	83716477	Balance	-54	30
2026-07-24	60.46	71.13	-22.32	44585714	Balance	-60	30
2026-07-17	67.34	72.04	-14.36	36303634	Balance	-48	25
2026-07-10	65.83	72.79	-17.89	48092760	Balance	-51	28
2026-07-03	68.60	73.64	-13.64	41748842	Balance	-50	37
2026-06-26	62.35	74.02	-20.11	75422137	Balance	-60	49
2026-06-19	66.56	74.43	-17.03	54199061	Balance	-41	35
2026-06-12	64.10	74.28	-19.64	46001734	Balance	-46	32
2026-06-05	66.51	74.27	-16.35	48493471	Balance	-40	26
2026-05-29	73.00	74.08	-10.89	49090929	Balance	-24	14
2026-05-22	68.28	73.69	-15.68	50607109	Balance	-29	13
2026-05-15	67.17	73.75	-16.54	44010552	Balance	2	15
2026-05-08	77.94	73.74	-3.14	16073263	Balance	19	30
2026-05-01	76.52	73.34	-2.50	16814724	Balance	6	23
2026-04-24	81.82	73.29	5.49	10019797	Downward Expansion	13	20
2026-04-17	77.51	73.02	0.96	18962229	Downward Expansion	-24	15
2026-04-10	67.26	73.05	-7.97	10611337	Downward Expansion	-56	39
2026-04-03	62.78	73.22	-10.67	13643912	Downward Expansion	-61	55
2026-03-27	60.41	73.59	-10.61	14171660	Rotation Down	-63	67
2026-03-20	56.26	74.06	-18.31	15248167	Rotation Down	-48	65
2026-03-13	60.03	74.57	-14.11	13369047	Rotation Down	-35	60
2026-03-06	63.54	74.90	-10.04	13447715	Rotation Down	-31	46
2026-02-27	66.83	75.10	-6.77	18424111	Balance	-24	33
2026-02-20	67.32	75.32	-6.24	38174158	Balance	-14	24
2026-02-13	68.57	75.29	-3.02	20043826	Upward Expansion	12	14
2026-02-06	80.73	75.32	12.83	17950025	Upward Expansion	42	26
2026-01-30	80.22	74.92	12.48	35897717	Upward Expansion	58	40
2026-01-23	94.66	74.57	34.07	11227720	Upward Expansion	72	51
2026-01-16	88.62	73.54	26.44	12201356	Upward Expansion	63	48
2026-01-09	92.62	72.72	32.94	15888600	Upward Expansion	74	70
2026-01-02	80.05	71.62	18.23	9323168	Upward Expansion	64	72
2025-12-26	87.69	71.22	29.61	10169528	Upward Expansion	66	78
2025-12-19	90.04	70.48	36.42	50045732	Upward Expansion	75	77
2025-12-12	91.14	69.51	39.78	34906797	Balance	77	60
2025-12-05	79.95	68.47	23.18	15115304	Balance	50	29
2025-11-28	74.90	67.59	16.56	13388316	Rotation Down	7	9
2025-11-21	61.98	66.81	0.47	14626301	Rotation Down	-32	45
2025-11-14	63.66	66.32	1.34	11753646	Rotation Down	-19	34
2025-11-07	60.80	65.61	-2.85	19918531	Balance	-27	32
2025-10-31	61.31	64.96	-3.47	27884267	Balance	-10	21
2025-10-24	70.24	64.00	11.58	17060741	Upward Expansion	25	17
2025-10-17	66.76	63.02	8.85	12918954	Upward Expansion	22	15
2025-10-10	65.85	62.07	10.01	13184231	Upward Expansion	31	22
2025-10-03	75.14	61.08	23.38	13746014	Upward Expansion	58	43
2025-09-26	73.86	59.83	23.90	11777645	Upward Expansion	59	45
2025-09-19	78.38	58.92	32.56	15409986	Upward Expansion	74	56
2025-09-12	72.35	57.80	25.41	13073419	Upward Expansion	58	47
2025-09-05	73.78	57.29	31.58	7462084	Upward Expansion	64	49
2025-08-29	74.38	56.59	35.03	11215858	Upward Expansion	67	50
2025-08-22	71.56	55.76	31.67	14809661	Upward Expansion	62	49
2025-08-15	70.00	54.98	30.76	12744435	Upward Expansion	60	50
2025-08-08	69.51	54.18	32.72	14128131	Upward Expansion	62	52
2025-08-01	73.56	53.15	45.89	25690935	Upward Expansion	76	61
2025-07-25	66.42	51.88	30.62	12139675	Upward Expansion	65	71
2025-07-18	69.50	51.10	40.61	13544913	Upward Expansion	70	74
2025-07-11	68.73	50.28	42.11	11910626	Upward Expansion	72	70
2025-07-04	69.67	49.65	45.84	12439620	Upward Expansion	76	57
2025-06-27	63.85	49.00	38.19	18822313	Upward Expansion	64	52
2025-06-20	63.98	48.61	45.35	17311008	Upward Expansion	66	68
2025-06-13	59.41	48.20	37.08	19193297	Upward Expansion	66	77
2025-06-06	68.29	47.83	59.61	17733248	Upward Expansion	81	88
2025-05-30	65.43	47.18	58.59	13176596	Upward Expansion	80	83
2025-05-23	60.82	46.53	53.09	17918554	Rotation Up	75	77
2025-05-16	59.98	45.85	49.79	23438250	Rotation Up	47	56
2025-05-09	53.62	45.13	43.30	28482170	Balance	26	29
2025-05-02	51.42	44.62	38.81	13464280	Balance	13	18
2025-04-25	47.43	44.11	33.46	20178681	Balance	-22	11
2025-04-18	42.28	43.66	26.43	12847843	Rotation Down	-50	28
2025-04-11	41.24	43.41	23.49	38402138	Rotation Down	-27	28
2025-04-04	32.51	42.98	4.40	33520994	Rotation Down	-44	58
2025-03-28	40.88	42.79	20.56	24320378	Rotation Down	-30	38
2025-03-21	38.19	42.43	12.36	28908027	Upward Expansion	-23	33
2025-03-14	36.24	42.22	8.34	27366159	Upward Expansion	-30	32
2025-03-07	37.69	42.05	11.32	28987233	Upward Expansion	6	6
2025-02-28	46.62	41.70	34.85	21091733	Upward Expansion	52	36
2025-02-21	44.66	41.06	29.90	30731243	Upward Expansion	56	60
2025-02-14	57.07	40.46	65.93	11919196	Upward Expansion	81	82
2025-02-07	52.81	39.42	59.79	9934314	Upward Expansion	72	66
2025-01-31	49.50	38.57	53.05	10307343	Deceleration	53	35
2025-01-24	48.09	37.78	50.68	7699669	Deceleration	31	21
2025-01-17	46.10	37.03	50.34	20959986	Deceleration	20	24
2025-01-10	38.61	36.25	32.53	26163139	Deceleration	9	27
2025-01-03	35.43	35.65	21.51	27080728	Deceleration	8	23
2024-12-27	43.02	35.18	49.07	6532882	Upward Expansion	45	37
2024-12-20	44.89	34.41	59.73	18103604	Upward Expansion	62	57
2024-12-13	49.65	33.64	77.18	11164764	Upward Expansion	66	66
2024-12-06	50.24	32.77	82.78	9930428	Upward Expansion	68	72
2024-11-29	52.08	31.87	96.56	14502893	Upward Expansion	79	90
2024-11-22	51.87	30.95	104.41	10585666	Upward Expansion	86	94
2024-11-15	48.20	29.78	99.70	10099701	Upward Expansion	81	92
2024-11-08	48.87	28.65	104.75	13670592	Upward Expansion	91	95
2024-11-01	45.82	27.52	107.92	30291777	Upward Expansion	91	94
2024-10-25	40.51	26.55	87.37	12320821	Upward Expansion	82	91
2024-10-18	38.26	25.79	80.50	11345456	Upward Expansion	75	88
2024-10-11	38.45	25.09	87.99	13291337	Upward Expansion	81	88
2024-10-04	36.03	24.34	83.24	12119584	Upward Expansion	76	72
2024-09-27	33.96	23.70	77.62	14268136	Upward Expansion	72	52
2024-09-20	34.77	23.12	87.16	25788354	Upward Expansion	78	50
2024-09-13	28.38	22.43	58.81	15816756	Upward Expansion	56	41
2024-09-06	26.68	21.83	57.84	8942779	Upward Expansion	61	51
2024-08-30	30.12	21.30	73.82	10429119	Upward Expansion	65	62
2024-08-23	31.96	20.58	88.50	12161488	Upward Expansion	81	72
2024-08-16	31.19	19.79	91.17	18190586	Upward Expansion	82	61
2024-08-09	27.18	19.05	77.72	19719109	Upward Expansion	66	53
2024-08-02	27.44	18.43	83.39	37490491	Upward Expansion	71	59
2024-07-26	26.57	17.83	77.57	16232475	Upward Expansion	67	63
2024-07-19	26.01	17.30	76.00	23329152	Upward Expansion	65	69
2024-07-12	27.25	16.80	84.29	24337348	Upward Expansion	77	77
2024-07-05	25.61	16.23	79.01	11574996	Upward Expansion	73	58
2024-06-28	25.74	15.65	87.95	41217921	Deceleration	77	55
2024-06-21	22.60	15.02	69.48	13629143	Deceleration	55	41
2024-06-14	20.61	14.48	59.53	23049049	Upward Expansion	47	39
2024-06-07	21.31	14.00	71.30	19435606	Upward Expansion	61	54
2024-05-31	20.00	13.49	67.00	13064562	Upward Expansion	65	76
2024-05-24	21.83	13.04	86.42	12885323	Upward Expansion	66	87
2024-05-17	23.50	12.50	107.08	18728076	Upward Expansion	76	88
2024-05-10	23.40	11.92	117.24	22164161	Upward Expansion	82	74
2024-05-03	24.33	11.37	138.97	55419972	Upward Expansion	88	61
2024-04-26	16.86	10.81	73.83	19511431	Upward Expansion	54	38
2024-04-19	14.27	10.53	55.69	22140991	Upward Expansion	49	41
2024-04-12	15.00	10.33	62.78	17192225	Upward Expansion	63	57
2024-04-05	16.77	10.18	84.23	13280128	Upward Expansion	67	69
2024-03-29	17.58	9.93	97.49	16802668	Upward Expansion	75	88
2024-03-22	17.19	9.69	100.26	22692108	Upward Expansion	77	91
2024-03-15	15.92	9.39	96.18	24383103	Upward Expansion	72	89
2024-03-08	17.06	9.12	117.31	32015344	Upward Expansion	87	94
2024-03-01	16.59	8.82	118.98	60173438	Upward Expansion	90	90
2024-02-23	13.85	8.57	91.33	63089165	Upward Expansion	83	74
2024-02-16	10.50	8.41	52.22	34494206	Balance	62	39
2024-02-09	10.63	8.36	56.94	35788558	Balance	55	28
2024-02-02	8.69	8.26	33.12	25746623	Balance	32	20
2024-01-26	8.36	8.16	31.90	29293248	Upward Expansion	36	19
2024-01-19	8.98	8.06	46.07	19844206	Upward Expansion	54	34
2024-01-12	8.56	7.90	44.11	26046536	Upward Expansion	60	61
2024-01-05	9.37	7.79	64.50	24956986	Upward Expansion	63	74
2023-12-29	10.59	7.60	88.18	31354613	Upward Expansion	72	78
2023-12-22	10.95	7.35	101.74	73543663	Balance	80	68
2023-12-15	10.28	7.07	98.14	66913805	Balance	53	38
2023-12-08	8.05	6.79	64.42	58837837	Balance	9	11
2023-12-01	7.04	6.60	48.09	38010128	Rotation Down	-5	12
2023-11-24	6.28	6.42	36.10	19008716	Rotation Down	-18	22
2023-11-17	6.41	6.26	42.83	49442599	Rotation Down	-21	37
2023-11-10	5.84	6.10	35.81	41572854	Deceleration	-27	47
2023-11-03	6.46	5.96	54.43	53151326	Deceleration	-2	28
2023-10-27	5.72	5.81	47.71	28469277	Deceleration	-12	29
2023-10-20	6.21	5.68	58.63	25534868	Deceleration	-3	19

Price vs TrendBelow-6.5%

Trend directionFalling-3.4%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+32.0%

Fair Value directionMoving away-19.9%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-18.4%

Relative strength directionWeakening-0.5%

Price momentumNegative-5.3%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.91×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-52 / ±100

-102.2 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

37 /100

+1.9 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

CVNA Directional State ↗ CVNA Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance47

Rotation Up13

Upward Expansion6

Deceleration44

Rotation Down63

Downward Expansion77

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 25%Rotation Up 1%Upward Expansion 55%Deceleration 7%Rotation Down 9%Downward Expansion 3%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-05-01	2026-10-09	Established	-16.7%
Downward Expansion	2026-04-03	2026-04-24	New	+30.3%
Rotation Down	2026-03-06	2026-03-27	New	-4.9%
Balance	2026-02-20	2026-02-27	New	-0.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-19	2026-02-13	Developing	-23.8%
Balance	2025-12-05	2025-12-12	New	+14.0%
Rotation Down	2025-11-14	2025-11-28	New	+17.7%
Balance	2025-10-31	2025-11-07	New	-0.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-30	2025-10-24	Established	+7.3%
Rotation Up	2025-05-16	2025-05-23	New	+1.4%
Balance	2025-04-25	2025-05-09	New	+13.1%
Rotation Down	2025-03-28	2025-04-18	New	+3.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-07	2025-03-21	Developing	-27.7%
Deceleration	2025-01-03	2025-01-31	Developing	+39.7%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing33

Stage 2 · Advancing3

Stage 3 · Distribution53

Stage 4 · Declining97

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 86/100
Current Relative Strength: -18.44
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -5.3%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -20.1%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 96th percentile23 in cohort

Test CVNA trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.71×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.91×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+75.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore CVNA Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 64.55falling

Slow Activity USD 68.01falling

Trend Reference USD 68.16-6.5% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 48.27+32.0% close margin

Structural low USD 56.12shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +12.5%

Annualized volatility +51.8%

From structural high -34.6%

From structural low +17.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	15	+2.2%-16.4% to +135.8%	+60.0%	+60.0%	+2.0%	+53.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	+40.0%+1.4% to +250.9%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+29.1%	+42.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	+106.4%+24.8% to +414.4%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+86.1%	+25.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+418.4%+72.5% to +764.3%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+387.8%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

CVNA Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map