NYSE · EQUITY · ENHANCED MARKET DYNAMICS

CVE

Cenovus Energy Inc

US · Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated

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EMD SCORE80/100

CURRENT COMPLETED-WEEK READ

Strongly constructive

The latest completed-week readings are broadly supportive. Conditions remain positive, but momentum has eased.

Constructive fade100% directional agreement100/100 evidence quality6/6 sources available

Completed week: 9 Oct 2026
Latest close: USD 31.39
Evidence: 156 weeks

Four-week EMD change-4.7 pts

signed chart scale −100 to +100

Four-week price-4.8%

completed closing prices

Current directional run67 weeks

on the same side of EMD zero

Recent consistency13/13

recent readings above zero

COMPLETED-WEEK OVERVIEW

Price and market conditions over time

5 supportive · 0 cautious

Enhanced Market Dynamics and the price cycle156 completed weeks · bars use the left EMD axis; price uses the right axis.

20 Oct 2023–9 Oct 2026

Constructive EMDCautious EMDCompleted-week priceUp-cycle confirmationDown-cycle confirmation

Confirmation markers describe price-zone departures within this saved history. Earlier markers can change as the history changes; they are not a record of signals available in real time.

Cycle position 94%Current EMD +60.44-week EMD change -4.7Full saved history price range USD 10.82–32.96

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close · USD	EMD −100 to +100	Score /100	Agreement %	Coverage %
2023-10-20	18.92	50.87	75	60	83
2023-10-27	17.72	41.24	71	60	83
2023-11-03	17.52	26.46	63	50	83
2023-11-10	16.55	9.86	55	50	100
2023-11-17	16.55	-0.19	50	0	100
2023-11-24	16.18	-19.57	40	60	100
2023-12-01	16.22	-22.19	39	60	100
2023-12-08	14.92	-34.72	33	67	100
2023-12-15	14.97	-26.28	37	33	100
2023-12-22	15.41	-27.85	36	60	100
2023-12-29	15.34	-34.26	33	67	100
2024-01-05	15.20	-27.5	36	33	100
2024-01-12	14.38	-41.93	29	67	100
2024-01-19	13.75	-45.91	27	67	100
2024-01-26	14.93	-27.26	36	33	100
2024-02-02	14.59	-44.53	28	67	100
2024-02-09	14.95	-25.77	37	20	100
2024-02-16	16.04	-11.7	44	0	100
2024-02-23	16.23	-11.96	44	0	100
2024-03-01	16.31	-8.2	46	0	100
2024-03-08	16.27	-7.13	46	0	100
2024-03-15	17.21	11.35	56	60	100
2024-03-22	17.94	22.39	61	67	100
2024-03-29	18.52	29.85	65	67	100
2024-04-05	19.81	47.83	74	100	100
2024-04-12	19.41	35.36	68	67	100
2024-04-19	19.32	62.38	81	100	100
2024-04-26	19.88	65.38	83	100	100
2024-05-03	18.98	42.32	71	67	100
2024-05-10	19.02	46.27	73	100	100
2024-05-17	18.81	37.44	69	60	100
2024-05-24	18.91	36.98	68	60	100
2024-05-31	19.39	48.18	74	100	100
2024-06-07	17.61	11.61	56	33	100
2024-06-14	17.11	1.88	51	0	100
2024-06-21	17.49	5.46	53	0	100
2024-06-28	18.44	13.86	57	20	100
2024-07-05	18.43	8.93	54	0	100
2024-07-12	18.66	17.0	59	33	100
2024-07-19	18.68	9.51	55	0	100
2024-07-26	18.53	12.43	56	0	100
2024-08-02	16.77	-15.35	42	60	100
2024-08-09	17.26	3.49	52	0	100
2024-08-16	18.39	9.55	55	20	100
2024-08-23	17.86	-13.67	43	60	100
2024-08-30	17.39	-16.41	42	33	100
2024-09-06	15.80	-33.97	33	67	100
2024-09-13	15.32	-34.02	33	60	100
2024-09-20	16.18	-23.86	38	33	100
2024-09-27	15.73	-39.27	30	67	100
2024-10-04	17.27	-10.24	45	0	100
2024-10-11	16.88	-19.93	40	20	100
2024-10-18	16.01	-35.39	32	67	100
2024-10-25	15.98	-30.34	35	50	100
2024-11-01	14.82	-47.77	26	67	100
2024-11-08	15.23	-41.9	29	60	100
2024-11-15	14.77	-44.61	28	67	100
2024-11-22	15.31	-37.04	31	60	100
2024-11-29	14.91	-38.1	31	60	100
2024-12-06	14.20	-46.51	27	67	100
2024-12-13	14.54	-41.59	29	60	100
2024-12-20	13.75	-48.39	26	67	100
2024-12-27	13.96	-41.24	29	60	100
2025-01-03	14.62	-29.45	35	20	100
2025-01-10	14.68	-40.04	30	67	100
2025-01-17	14.36	-35.34	32	50	100
2025-01-24	14.12	-39.69	30	60	100
2025-01-31	13.80	-45.45	27	67	100
2025-02-07	14.11	-27.07	36	33	100
2025-02-14	14.60	-23.15	38	50	100
2025-02-21	13.91	-33.77	33	60	100
2025-02-28	13.19	-34.1	33	60	100
2025-03-07	12.15	-40.12	30	67	100
2025-03-14	12.98	-24.82	38	33	100
2025-03-21	13.60	-21.21	39	20	100
2025-03-28	13.26	-33.5	33	60	100
2025-04-04	10.82	-46.69	27	67	100
2025-04-11	10.97	-41.47	29	60	100
2025-04-18	11.64	-37.26	31	33	100
2025-04-25	11.62	-45.45	27	60	100
2025-05-02	11.58	-30.66	35	20	100
2025-05-09	12.74	-16.92	42	0	100
2025-05-16	13.19	-19.24	40	20	100
2025-05-23	13.11	-8.81	46	20	100
2025-05-30	12.68	-15.82	42	0	100
2025-06-06	13.02	-7.92	46	33	100
2025-06-13	14.41	17.58	59	67	100
2025-06-20	14.22	8.62	54	20	100
2025-06-27	13.26	-4.26	48	0	100
2025-07-04	13.76	13.1	57	60	100
2025-07-11	14.25	16.62	58	60	100
2025-07-18	13.67	1.8	51	20	100
2025-07-25	14.05	16.44	58	60	100
2025-08-01	14.41	16.73	58	33	100
2025-08-08	14.45	28.82	64	60	100
2025-08-15	14.61	38.78	69	67	100
2025-08-22	15.93	64.41	82	100	100
2025-08-29	16.14	52.58	76	67	100
2025-09-05	15.50	44.21	72	60	100
2025-09-12	16.39	68.92	84	100	100
2025-09-19	16.65	52.16	76	67	100
2025-09-26	17.41	77.41	89	100	100
2025-10-03	16.64	53.51	77	67	100
2025-10-10	16.95	56.91	78	67	100
2025-10-17	16.46	50.99	75	67	100
2025-10-24	16.74	57.01	79	100	100
2025-10-31	16.58	47.43	74	67	100
2025-11-07	17.09	64.44	82	100	100
2025-11-14	17.77	69.6	85	100	100
2025-11-21	17.52	54.52	77	67	100
2025-11-28	17.50	60.38	80	100	100
2025-12-05	17.94	61.95	81	100	100
2025-12-12	17.67	53.17	77	100	100
2025-12-19	16.46	22.52	61	50	100
2025-12-26	16.51	23.68	62	100	100
2026-01-02	17.32	35.16	68	67	100
2026-01-09	16.21	8.7	54	0	100
2026-01-16	17.82	42.95	71	67	100
2026-01-23	18.54	58.13	79	100	100
2026-01-30	19.48	63.13	82	100	100
2026-02-06	20.32	77.44	89	100	100
2026-02-13	21.70	79.95	90	100	100
2026-02-20	22.30	77.64	89	100	100
2026-02-27	22.04	77.11	89	100	100
2026-03-06	22.46	65.65	83	67	100
2026-03-13	23.07	77.35	89	100	100
2026-03-20	24.92	83.83	92	100	100
2026-03-27	26.67	85.04	93	100	100
2026-04-03	26.41	78.4	89	100	100
2026-04-10	25.72	76.33	88	100	100
2026-04-17	24.37	67.91	84	100	100
2026-04-24	26.14	71.6	86	100	100
2026-05-01	29.10	79.05	90	100	100
2026-05-08	28.24	65.16	83	67	100
2026-05-15	30.64	80.65	90	100	100
2026-05-22	29.88	64.9	82	67	100
2026-05-29	27.41	56.6	78	67	100
2026-06-05	28.06	57.19	79	67	100
2026-06-12	28.11	60.93	80	100	100
2026-06-19	25.16	37.27	69	60	100
2026-06-26	24.81	31.42	66	50	100
2026-07-03	24.65	20.85	60	0	100
2026-07-10	26.40	39.7	70	60	100
2026-07-17	27.95	50.34	75	67	100
2026-07-24	29.28	51.59	76	67	100
2026-07-31	30.19	63.2	82	100	100
2026-08-07	28.25	43.44	72	60	100
2026-08-14	30.87	61.51	81	100	100
2026-08-21	32.78	64.88	82	100	100
2026-08-28	31.43	61.6	81	100	100
2026-09-04	32.22	65.66	83	100	100
2026-09-11	32.96	65.05	83	100	100
2026-09-18	32.62	55.77	78	67	100
2026-09-25	30.93	53.33	77	67	100
2026-10-02	32.40	72.33	86	100	100
2026-10-09	31.39	60.35	80	100	100

SIX SOURCES · LAST 26 OBSERVATIONS

Is support broadening or thinning?

Green is supportive, rose is cautious.
Grey means the reading is unavailable.

Reading	17 Apr	24 Apr	1 May	8 May	15 May	22 May	29 May	5 Jun	12 Jun	19 Jun	26 Jun	3 Jul	10 Jul	17 Jul	24 Jul	31 Jul	7 Aug	14 Aug	21 Aug	28 Aug	4 Sep	11 Sep	18 Sep	25 Sep	2 Oct	9 Oct
Trend	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	95	90	86	96	99	100	100	97	100	100	99	99	100	99	95	98	94
Momentum	77	77	95	94	98	96	69	77	66	49	45	44	56	87	88	82	73	76	84	79	89	85	78	75	81	68
Underlying pressure	92	90	90	90	92	93	89	84	76	59	48	37	32	32	38	52	54	60	64	65	72	76	80	80	81	80
Price & volume	45	57	62	41	61	36	40	39	52	41	43	44	67	61	57	67	39	61	59	53	49	46	38	39	68	51
Relative strength	99	100	100	100	100	100	99	100	99	92	92	86	94	98	99	99	94	99	100	99	99	99	99	96	98	95
Modeled Trend	91	90	90	91	90	91	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	90	90	90	91	91

Each cell is a finished component score from 0–100. Components can disagree even when the combined reading stays positive.

STRONGEST CURRENT SOURCE

Relative strength

95/100

LEAST SUPPORTIVE SOURCE

Price & volume

51/100

WHAT WOULD CHANGE THE READ?

Three paths to keep in view

Conditional research scenarios.
No assumed price target or timing.

Continuation

Price and evidence stay together

Look for the current direction to hold across trend, pressure and relative strength. A rising price with weaker EMD is a less convincing continuation.

Change of direction

Watch for loss of support

If price keeps rising while EMD falls, inspect which readings are weakening. Broad deterioration matters more than a single soft week.

Cycle context

A range extreme is a location

An upper zone can persist during a strong advance; a lower zone can persist during a decline. Use departures, EMD direction and the related price charts together.

EARLIER COMPARABLE READINGS

What followed similar conditions?

Same ticker · similar score and direction of change.
Returns exclude costs and dividends.

4 WEEKS LATER-0.6%

Median price return · 9 non-overlapping examples

Observed range: -12.1% to +17.6%
Positive returns: 44%
All-period comparison: +0.6% median

13 WEEKS LATER+14.8%

Median price return · 3 non-overlapping examples

Observed range: -1.1% to +24.9%
Positive returns: 67%
All-period comparison: +0.7% median

How these comparisons are selected

Earlier observations must have the same constructive/fading/repair/deterioration condition, a score within ten points of today’s score and at least the same component coverage. The first 30 observations are omitted for warm-up; examples are spaced by the forward horizon to avoid overlap. Gapped return windows are excluded. The all-period comparison uses the same available history and spacing, without matching the current state. These are reconstructed observations, not a point-in-time strategy backtest or a forecast.

RECENT CYCLE HISTORY

How the current reading developed

19 Dec 2025Down-cycle confirmedUSD 16.46

12 Dec 2025Upper cycle zone confirmedUSD 17.67

13 Jun 2025Up-cycle confirmedUSD 14.41

1 Nov 2024Lower cycle zone confirmedUSD 14.82

17 May 2024Down-cycle confirmedUSD 18.81

12 Apr 2024Upper cycle zone confirmedUSD 19.41

THE FULL PRICE CYCLE

Follow the journey from one zone to the other

Cycle states use trailing completed-week observations.

Lower zone

Price establishes residence near the bottom of its long-cycle range. Improving EMD separates early repair from continued deterioration.

Upward journey

Price leaves the lower zone while EMD confirms improving participation. The objective is the broader move toward the upper zone, not a short weekly trade.

Upper zone

Price establishes residence near the top of its long-cycle range. A high range position can persist. Watch EMD for exhaustion and loss of support before interpreting it as a turn.

Downward journey

Price leaves the upper zone while EMD weakens. The reverse cycle remains active until lower-zone residence is confirmed again.

CURRENT READINGS