Weekly structural research · NYSE · Energy

CVE Stage Analysis

Cenovus Energy Inc

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close USD 30.93Tenure DevelopingBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Re-accelerating

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: stable.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 62−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 48/100directional strength

Maturity 29/100lifecycle context

Confidence 90/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +68.1%USD 18.39 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	30.93	28.06	19.72	37632319	Upward Expansion	62	48
2026-09-18	32.62	27.76	28.87	41162636	Upward Expansion	67	66
2026-09-11	32.96	27.42	31.41	22991543	Upward Expansion	72	76
2026-09-04	32.22	27.04	28.85	24492805	Upward Expansion	71	75
2026-08-28	31.43	26.64	27.17	39151058	Upward Expansion	66	70
2026-08-21	32.78	26.24	34.49	27287368	Upward Expansion	82	79
2026-08-14	30.87	25.77	26.29	30508710	Upward Expansion	72	70
2026-08-07	28.25	25.34	16.96	41072567	Upward Expansion	55	57
2026-07-31	30.19	24.93	30.47	48738089	Deceleration	67	59
2026-07-24	29.28	24.51	29.29	31392876	Deceleration	50	29
2026-07-17	27.95	24.08	24.04	28267660	Deceleration	24	17
2026-07-10	26.40	23.70	16.50	41978325	Deceleration	7	19
2026-07-03	24.65	23.41	11.11	24388514	Deceleration	9	19
2026-06-26	24.81	23.18	15.06	42353196	Deceleration	21	20
2026-06-19	25.16	22.94	14.82	37241438	Upward Expansion	35	22
2026-06-12	28.11	22.68	30.28	53103136	Upward Expansion	57	43
2026-06-05	28.06	22.34	31.96	35628387	Upward Expansion	62	53
2026-05-29	27.41	21.97	27.06	32289483	Upward Expansion	66	60
2026-05-22	29.88	21.61	41.89	44700846	Upward Expansion	72	83
2026-05-15	30.64	21.17	48.53	32254973	Upward Expansion	83	79
2026-05-08	28.24	20.70	38.98	57829487	Upward Expansion	73	63
2026-05-01	29.10	20.33	48.21	45375793	Upward Expansion	85	67
2026-04-24	26.14	19.91	36.26	29854651	Upward Expansion	69	60
2026-04-17	24.37	19.62	29.13	37447326	Upward Expansion	65	63
2026-04-10	25.72	19.36	43.69	52328544	Upward Expansion	68	77
2026-04-03	26.41	19.05	54.77	65011062	Upward Expansion	80	85
2026-03-27	26.67	18.69	63.89	69651387	Upward Expansion	91	87
2026-03-20	24.92	18.34	51.76	89047922	Upward Expansion	88	83
2026-03-13	23.07	18.04	39.45	105734517	Upward Expansion	77	82
2026-03-06	22.46	17.76	34.92	108148393	Upward Expansion	75	88
2026-02-27	22.04	17.49	31.03	68221225	Upward Expansion	75	89
2026-02-20	22.30	17.23	32.90	55931650	Upward Expansion	86	93
2026-02-13	21.70	16.96	31.69	75223754	Upward Expansion	87	90
2026-02-06	20.32	16.69	22.51	69292030	Upward Expansion	81	81
2026-01-30	19.48	16.49	17.75	61179298	Upward Expansion	74	62
2026-01-23	18.54	16.30	12.98	52050227	Upward Expansion	64	36
2026-01-16	17.82	16.12	8.50	65679072	Upward Expansion	42	18
2026-01-09	16.21	16.00	-1.53	91888363	Upward Expansion	12	16
2026-01-02	17.32	15.94	6.68	33835866	Upward Expansion	35	19
2025-12-26	16.51	15.80	0.67	21604861	Upward Expansion	34	19
2025-12-19	16.46	15.67	1.81	59812964	Upward Expansion	42	29
2025-12-12	17.67	15.56	9.48	64832524	Upward Expansion	60	46
2025-12-05	17.94	15.41	10.68	42749232	Upward Expansion	68	57
2025-11-28	17.50	15.24	8.54	27756349	Upward Expansion	61	51
2025-11-21	17.52	15.04	12.73	64742988	Upward Expansion	63	48
2025-11-14	17.77	14.84	12.17	52202555	Deceleration	71	49
2025-11-07	17.09	14.64	8.14	47885279	Deceleration	61	41
2025-10-31	16.58	14.44	3.18	60971487	Upward Expansion	46	37
2025-10-24	16.74	14.24	4.73	57142687	Upward Expansion	58	45
2025-10-17	16.46	14.13	4.73	58062938	Upward Expansion	62	53
2025-10-10	16.95	14.03	9.46	117900816	Upward Expansion	66	59
2025-10-03	16.64	13.90	4.54	156805125	Upward Expansion	65	71
2025-09-26	17.41	13.75	10.13	160961129	Upward Expansion	83	83
2025-09-19	16.65	13.61	4.86	98239343	Upward Expansion	76	82
2025-09-12	16.39	13.52	4.22	92381398	Upward Expansion	78	86
2025-09-05	15.50	13.46	-0.13	51735410	Upward Expansion	65	77
2025-08-29	16.14	13.41	3.88	94965019	Upward Expansion	83	84
2025-08-22	15.93	13.33	1.96	62635964	Upward Expansion	84	78
2025-08-15	14.61	13.27	-6.72	58041152	Upward Expansion	67	60
2025-08-08	14.45	13.26	-7.66	58659278	Upward Expansion	64	48
2025-08-01	14.41	13.27	-6.36	86131765	Upward Expansion	38	37
2025-07-25	14.05	13.28	-11.50	59905152	Upward Expansion	33	33
2025-07-18	13.67	13.28	-13.41	50395355	Rotation Up	28	25
2025-07-11	14.25	13.28	-10.08	53716909	Rotation Up	32	42
2025-07-04	13.76	13.29	-14.09	35292606	Rotation Up	22	45
2025-06-27	13.26	13.30	-16.51	75144564	Rotation Up	20	35
2025-06-20	14.22	13.36	-8.28	56389272	Rotation Up	31	42
2025-06-13	14.41	13.39	-7.76	83161047	Balance	35	30
2025-06-06	13.02	13.41	-17.44	63251051	Balance	-17	19
2025-05-30	12.68	13.48	-18.94	42879165	Downward Expansion	-22	22
2025-05-23	13.11	13.55	-15.64	67693286	Downward Expansion	-24	20
2025-05-16	13.19	13.65	-18.09	63744451	Downward Expansion	-32	18
2025-05-09	12.74	13.74	-17.52	75381480	Downward Expansion	-55	36
2025-05-02	11.58	13.88	-26.07	61747123	Downward Expansion	-60	54
2025-04-25	11.62	14.07	-24.55	38118183	Downward Expansion	-62	71
2025-04-18	11.64	14.21	-21.94	39667293	Downward Expansion	-63	69
2025-04-11	10.97	14.36	-28.34	73050998	Downward Expansion	-78	65
2025-04-04	10.82	14.50	-26.16	52210811	Downward Expansion	-85	62
2025-03-28	13.26	14.67	-18.68	39370466	Downward Expansion	-59	51
2025-03-21	13.60	14.80	-18.49	43516015	Downward Expansion	-61	65
2025-03-14	12.98	14.95	-22.33	67707243	Downward Expansion	-63	69
2025-03-07	12.15	15.13	-29.48	82918472	Downward Expansion	-81	64
2025-02-28	13.19	15.30	-26.27	60845569	Downward Expansion	-70	42
2025-02-21	13.91	15.42	-23.51	48324940	Downward Expansion	-59	36
2025-02-14	14.60	15.57	-21.48	41530367	Downward Expansion	-52	34
2025-02-07	14.11	15.71	-23.38	57307240	Downward Expansion	-55	39
2025-01-31	13.80	15.86	-25.53	69328886	Downward Expansion	-67	43
2025-01-24	14.12	16.01	-24.88	40731045	Downward Expansion	-51	33
2025-01-17	14.36	16.16	-22.66	56877917	Downward Expansion	-57	38
2025-01-10	14.68	16.26	-18.83	38831442	Downward Expansion	-59	46
2025-01-03	14.62	16.34	-20.97	26428726	Downward Expansion	-63	52
2024-12-27	13.96	16.44	-25.34	18603019	Downward Expansion	-68	68
2024-12-20	13.75	16.62	-26.40	45129113	Downward Expansion	-76	64
2024-12-13	14.54	16.79	-24.04	36399199	Downward Expansion	-64	50
2024-12-06	14.20	16.94	-26.60	30762679	Downward Expansion	-75	66
2024-11-29	14.91	17.10	-22.71	34837660	Downward Expansion	-64	61
2024-11-22	15.31	17.23	-20.24	44495529	Downward Expansion	-63	69
2024-11-15	14.77	17.39	-22.25	48644371	Downward Expansion	-71	73
2024-11-08	15.23	17.54	-22.03	35486390	Downward Expansion	-66	66
2024-11-01	14.82	17.68	-21.14	50432175	Downward Expansion	-75	48
2024-10-25	15.98	17.84	-16.85	28737170	Downward Expansion	-47	25
2024-10-18	16.01	17.93	-18.25	27393510	Downward Expansion	-49	28
2024-10-11	16.88	17.99	-13.96	45229576	Downward Expansion	-52	31
2024-10-04	17.27	18.00	-11.74	44807346	Downward Expansion	-59	52
2024-09-27	15.73	17.97	-19.93	44578432	Downward Expansion	-66	75
2024-09-20	16.18	17.99	-18.01	48324360	Downward Expansion	-60	71
2024-09-13	15.32	17.99	-21.88	49362370	Balance	-78	75
2024-09-06	15.80	18.02	-16.91	31283450	Balance	-47	43
2024-08-30	17.39	17.99	-12.98	31781991	Balance	-24	20
2024-08-23	17.86	17.89	-10.85	30802883	Balance	-18	19
2024-08-16	18.39	17.80	-7.32	35230879	Deceleration	14	16
2024-08-09	17.26	17.64	-9.89	43552091	Deceleration	-0	15
2024-08-02	16.77	17.55	-12.87	43484900	Deceleration	-6	6
2024-07-26	18.53	17.49	-6.14	28243595	Deceleration	36	25
2024-07-19	18.68	17.39	-6.38	42109689	Deceleration	38	26
2024-07-12	18.66	17.28	-8.38	24206909	Deceleration	31	18
2024-07-05	18.43	17.15	-8.77	22421631	Deceleration	11	16
2024-06-28	18.44	17.04	-7.13	35440932	Deceleration	9	21
2024-06-21	17.49	16.96	-12.02	24707350	Deceleration	2	18
2024-06-14	17.11	16.92	-13.50	41754798	Deceleration	12	18
2024-06-07	17.61	16.90	-9.66	38270059	Deceleration	34	24
2024-05-31	19.39	16.87	0.50	27459643	Deceleration	53	43
2024-05-24	18.91	16.80	-2.33	23794185	Upward Expansion	47	41
2024-05-17	18.81	16.76	-2.90	29641615	Upward Expansion	52	51
2024-05-10	19.02	16.77	-0.22	27578779	Upward Expansion	64	60
2024-05-03	18.98	16.78	1.51	56341457	Upward Expansion	67	71
2024-04-26	19.88	16.74	7.04	35736235	Upward Expansion	78	91
2024-04-19	19.32	16.71	6.87	58102423	Rotation Up	71	89
2024-04-12	19.41	16.67	4.08	56982291	Rotation Up	53	82
2024-04-05	19.81	16.65	4.61	35621989	Rotation Up	66	87
2024-03-29	18.52	16.61	-3.15	41504645	Rotation Up	51	75
2024-03-22	17.94	16.61	-6.05	43692247	Rotation Up	49	66
2024-03-15	17.21	16.58	-7.90	53089222	Rotation Up	21	35
2024-03-08	16.27	16.60	-13.13	83068964	Downward Expansion	2	25
2024-03-01	16.31	16.65	-13.66	66707653	Downward Expansion	-9	21
2024-02-23	16.23	16.69	-13.74	37496614	Downward Expansion	-22	21
2024-02-16	16.04	16.72	-13.80	75070910	Downward Expansion	-38	25
2024-02-09	14.95	16.72	-20.27	53458867	Downward Expansion	-60	49
2024-02-02	14.59	16.74	-21.77	56971298	Downward Expansion	-61	61
2024-01-26	14.93	16.78	-19.29	62564254	Downward Expansion	-62	67
2024-01-19	13.75	16.80	-25.48	55388169	Downward Expansion	-80	79
2024-01-12	14.38	16.83	-21.71	53265261	Downward Expansion	-75	70
2024-01-05	15.20	16.85	-16.29	34727481	Rotation Down	-63	62
2023-12-29	15.34	16.87	-17.33	25238535	Rotation Down	-36	57
2023-12-22	15.41	16.87	-17.22	60393852	Rotation Down	-37	58
2023-12-15	14.97	16.86	-19.39	77685179	Rotation Down	-47	65
2023-12-08	14.92	16.86	-18.18	51174777	Rotation Down	-43	62
2023-12-01	16.22	16.84	-11.21	42579546	Rotation Down	-27	46
2023-11-24	16.18	16.78	-11.07	25793483	Deceleration	-27	34
2023-11-17	16.55	16.75	-8.59	40012110	Deceleration	-3	21
2023-11-10	16.55	16.73	-6.92	54190175	Deceleration	10	15
2023-11-03	17.52	16.71	-0.67	55066706	Deceleration	40	26
2023-10-27	17.72	16.66	5.80	38340440	Upward Expansion	44	30
2023-10-20	18.92	16.60	9.97	31536750	Upward Expansion	63	47
2023-10-13	19.31	16.43	9.53	34574380	Upward Expansion	73	50
2023-10-06	17.76	16.26	1.34	40429420	Upward Expansion	60	48

Price vs TrendAbove+10.2%

Trend directionRising+16.5%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+68.1%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+25.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+19.7%

Relative strength directionImproving+4.7%

Price momentumPositive+16.0%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.39×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

62 / ±100

-4.2 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

48 /100

-22.0 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

CVE Directional State ↗ CVE Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance13

Rotation Up61

Upward Expansion82

Deceleration58

Rotation Down19

Downward Expansion6

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 4%Rotation Up 7%Upward Expansion 40%Deceleration 15%Rotation Down 4%Downward Expansion 30%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-08-07	2026-09-25	Developing	+9.5%
Deceleration	2026-06-26	2026-07-31	Developing	+21.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-11-21	2026-06-19	Extended	+43.6%
Deceleration	2025-11-07	2025-11-14	New	+4.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-25	2025-10-31	Established	+18.0%
Rotation Up	2025-06-20	2025-07-18	Developing	-3.8%
Balance	2025-06-06	2025-06-13	New	+10.7%
Downward Expansion	2024-09-20	2025-05-30	Extended	-21.6%
Balance	2024-08-23	2024-09-13	New	-14.3%
Deceleration	2024-05-31	2024-08-16	Developing	-5.1%
Upward Expansion	2024-04-26	2024-05-24	Developing	-4.9%
Rotation Up	2024-03-15	2024-04-19	Developing	+12.2%
Downward Expansion	2024-01-12	2024-03-08	Developing	+13.1%
Rotation Down	2023-12-01	2024-01-05	Developing	-6.3%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing23

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution49

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 91/100
Current Relative Strength: 19.72
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +16.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -6.0%
Energy regime cohort: 66th percentile82 in cohort

Test CVE trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.05×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.39×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationStable

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore CVE Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 31.99rising

Slow Activity USD 29.31rising

Trend Reference USD 28.06+10.2% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 18.39+68.1% close margin

Structural low USD 23.60shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +7.3%

Annualized volatility +40.2%

From structural high -9.3%

From structural low +100.3%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	29	+3.9%-20.7% to +21.7%	+62.1%	+62.1%	+1.4%	+75.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	10	+14.9%-11.7% to +41.0%	+70.0%	+70.0%	+10.6%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	+21.2%-19.6% to +57.9%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+25.0%	+16.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+99.4%-5.3% to +108.4%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+91.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

CVE Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map