Events

Predictions

Relevant probability moves from prediction markets.

Probability Fade

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

Polymarket · Energy

2.0% probability

Energy expectation is falling at 2.0%. 24h move -12.5 pts. 7d move -18.5 pts. Data quality 61/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

24h -12.5 pts
7d -18.5 pts
Volume 911K
Quality 61/100
Probability Surge

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?

Polymarket · Energy

37.4% probability

Energy expectation is rising at 37.4%. 24h move +33.6 pts. 7d move +33.6 pts. Data quality 60/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

24h +33.6 pts
7d +33.6 pts
Volume 906K
Quality 60/100
Probability Fade

Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 24?

Polymarket · Crypto

32.5% probability

Crypto expectation is falling at 32.5%. 24h move -36.5 pts. 7d move -36.5 pts. Data quality 42/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

24h -36.5 pts
7d -36.5 pts
Volume 991
Quality 42/100
Probability Fade

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 24?

Polymarket · Crypto

0.3% probability

Crypto expectation is falling at 0.3%. 24h move -18.2 pts. 7d move -7.7 pts. Data quality 55/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

24h -18.2 pts
7d -7.7 pts
Volume 97K
Quality 55/100
Probability Surge

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 24?

Polymarket · Crypto

92.5% probability

Crypto expectation is rising at 92.5%. 24h move +7.0 pts. 7d move +43.0 pts. Data quality 55/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

24h +7.0 pts
7d +43.0 pts
Volume 95K
Quality 55/100
Probability Fade

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?

Polymarket · Energy

15.5% probability

Energy expectation is falling at 15.5%. 24h move -40.0 pts. 7d move -46.0 pts. Data quality 53/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

24h -40.0 pts
7d -46.0 pts
Volume 100K
Quality 53/100
Probability Fade

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?

Polymarket · Energy

64.5% probability

Energy expectation is falling at 64.5%. 24h move -12.5 pts. 7d move -12.5 pts. Data quality 48/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

24h -12.5 pts
7d -12.5 pts
Volume 10K
Quality 48/100
Probability Surge

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 24?

Polymarket · Crypto

99.6% probability

Crypto expectation is rising at 99.6%. 24h move +8.0 pts. 7d move +8.0 pts. Data quality 55/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

24h +8.0 pts
7d +8.0 pts
Volume 97K
Quality 55/100
Probability Surge

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?

Polymarket · Energy

99.6% probability

Energy expectation is rising at 99.6%. 24h move +12.6 pts. 7d move +12.0 pts. Data quality 61/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

24h +12.6 pts
7d +12.0 pts
Volume 882K
Quality 61/100
Probability Fade

Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on July 23?

Polymarket · Crypto

1.0% probability

Crypto expectation is falling at 1.0%. 24h move -35.0 pts. 7d move -35.0 pts. Data quality 52/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

24h -35.0 pts
7d -35.0 pts
Volume 99K
Quality 52/100
Probability Surge

Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on July 24?

Polymarket · Crypto

99.8% probability

Crypto expectation is rising at 99.8%. 24h move +5.3 pts. 7d move +3.8 pts. Data quality 48/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

24h +5.3 pts
7d +3.8 pts
Volume 10K
Quality 48/100