Events

Predictions

Relevant probability moves from prediction markets.

Probability Fade

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 24?

Polymarket · Crypto

24.5% probability

Crypto expectation is falling at 24.5%. 24h move -12.0 pts. 7d move -12.0 pts. Data quality 54/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

24h -12.0 pts
7d -12.0 pts
Volume 97K
Quality 54/100
Probability Surge

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?

Polymarket · Energy

31.9% probability

Energy expectation is rising at 31.9%. 24h move +28.2 pts. 7d move +28.2 pts. Data quality 59/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

24h +28.2 pts
7d +28.2 pts
Volume 909K
Quality 59/100
Probability Fade

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

Polymarket · Energy

1.9% probability

Energy expectation is falling at 1.9%. 24h move -12.6 pts. 7d move -14.6 pts. Data quality 60/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

24h -12.6 pts
7d -14.6 pts
Volume 914K
Quality 60/100
Probability Fade

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on July 24?

Polymarket · Energy

50.6% probability

Energy expectation is falling at 50.6%. 24h move -46.4 pts. 7d move -46.4 pts. Data quality 27/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

24h -46.4 pts
7d -46.4 pts
Volume 975
Quality 27/100
Probability Fade

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 28?

Polymarket · Crypto

41.5% probability

Crypto expectation is falling at 41.5%. 24h move -14.0 pts. 7d move -14.0 pts. Data quality 42/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

24h -14.0 pts
7d -14.0 pts
Volume 956
Quality 42/100
Probability Fade

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 24?

Polymarket · Crypto

0.3% probability

Crypto expectation is falling at 0.3%. 24h move -18.2 pts. 7d move -7.7 pts. Data quality 55/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

24h -18.2 pts
7d -7.7 pts
Volume 98K
Quality 55/100
Probability Surge

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 24?

Polymarket · Crypto

92.5% probability

Crypto expectation is rising at 92.5%. 24h move +7.0 pts. 7d move +43.0 pts. Data quality 55/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

24h +7.0 pts
7d +43.0 pts
Volume 95K
Quality 55/100
Probability Surge

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 24?

Polymarket · Crypto

99.6% probability

Crypto expectation is rising at 99.6%. 24h move +8.0 pts. 7d move +8.0 pts. Data quality 55/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

24h +8.0 pts
7d +8.0 pts
Volume 97K
Quality 55/100
High Conviction

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on July 24?

Polymarket · Energy

76.0% probability

Energy expectation is falling at 76.0%. 24h move -4.5 pts. 7d move -4.5 pts. Data quality 36/100. Crowd conviction is high; surprise risk may sit in the opposite outcome.

24h -4.5 pts
7d -4.5 pts
Volume 904
Quality 36/100
Probability Fade

Bitcoin above 65,800 on July 24, 4AM ET?

Polymarket · Crypto

21.0% probability

Crypto expectation is falling at 21.0%. 24h move -27.9 pts. 7d move -27.9 pts. Data quality 32/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

24h -27.9 pts
7d -27.9 pts
Volume 98
Quality 32/100