Ticker Options Intelligence

MCFT options intelligence

MCBC Holdings Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 68 Market data through 17 Sep 2026 Checked 17 Sep 2026 21:12 · partial chain

Put-side pressure

Bearish pressure

MCFT currently carries bearish options pressure with a 68/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 0.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.65.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bearish

Put-side pressure

Expected move 0.6%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.65

Current volume is elevated versus prior open interest

Put-call 21.30

Put-side skew

Trend fit 31

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -18.7%

RS -19.3

Expected move 0.6%
Put-call volume 21.30
Volume / OI 0.65
Reference IV 2.18
Max pain 22.50
Underlying 19.64
Nearest expiry 18 Sep 2026
Contracts 33

Research Brief

MCFT has a bearish chain read with 68/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 19.53–19.75; The largest call open-interest concentration is 30.00; the largest put concentration is 17.50. The most active strike by current volume is 17.50.

Priced range19.53–19.75
Call concentration30.00
Put concentration17.50
Max pain reference22.50
What would confirm it
  • Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
  • Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
What would weaken it
  • Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 18 Sep

Options imply 19.53 to 19.75. Max pain at 22.50 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
19.5319.64 ± 0.1119.75
Confirmation level

A close beyond 19.75 or below 19.53 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 68/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 100/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation55 × 22%
+12.1

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement31 × 26%
+8.1

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility58 × 10%
+5.8

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score68.0Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 30.00; the largest put concentration is 17.50. The most active strike by current volume is 17.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
2.50-87.3%
0
0
5.00-74.5%
0
1
7.50-61.8%
0
0
10.00-49.1%
5
1
15.00-23.6%
0
42
17.50-10.9%
1
18
20.001.8%
0
10
22.5014.6%
2
1
25.0027.3%
26
0
30.0052.7%
31
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Negative gamma proxy

Model-estimated Greeks · 90% coverage

Put-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the call-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile-$16,569Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak22.50+$2,461
Negative peak15.00-$12,794
Nearest balance19.99Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
7.50-61.8%
-$0
15.00-23.6%
-$12,794
17.50-10.9%
-$8,440
20.001.8%
+$37
22.5014.6%
+$2,461
25.0027.3%
+$746
30.0052.7%
+$1,261
35.0078.2%
+$160
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

3.29× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

2.18 18 Sep 1d
0.87 16 Oct 29d
0.00 18 Dec 92d
0.66 15 Jan 120d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

18
20
23
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

13 matured · 6 directional

Across 6 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 67% of the time.

Directional follow-through67%
Moves contained by pricing100%
Average expiry move4.5%
20 Aug Bullish · 44 1.9% through expiry 2.8% priced · v2.0
19 Aug Volatility · 64 1.9% through expiry 5.4% priced · v2.0
18 Aug Volatility · 53 1.9% through expiry 5.4% priced · v2.0
14 Aug Bearish · 52 1.9% through expiry 6.8% priced · v2.0
12 Aug Bearish · 63 4.5% through expiry 8.6% priced · v2.0
11 Aug Mixed · 31 4.5% through expiry 8.5% priced · v2.0
7 Aug Bullish · 50 4.5% through expiry 9.4% priced · v2.0
6 Aug Mixed · 31 6.4% through expiry 9.6% priced · v2.0
5 Aug Bullish · 49 6.4% through expiry 8.8% priced · v2.0
4 Aug Mixed · 30 6.4% through expiry 8.3% priced · v2.0
3 Aug Bullish · 58 6.4% through expiry 11.5% priced · v2.0
31 Jul Volatility · 52 6.4% through expiry 12.1% priced · v2.0

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes85%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Retained chain subset
Market date
17 Sep 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
33 / 33
  • 100% of provider contracts were retained for this snapshot.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Put-heavy activity

94/100
Primary intent Put-heavy activity

Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.

Flow vs price divergence Bearish flow confirms price

Options pressure and weekly price action are both cautionary.

Why this matters

Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $118,166 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · otm, and a bearish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-100
1W price-18.7%
Call premium4%
Put premium96%
Notional split C 4% / P 96% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.65 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 31/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 91+ days · OTM
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 1020 contracts traded, $67,082 estimated gross traded notional, and 57% of visible notional.
$67,082
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 53 contracts traded, $41,545 estimated gross traded notional, and 35% of visible notional.
$41,545
Puts · 0-7 days · ITM puts cluster with 9 contracts traded, $3,150 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$3,150
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 3 contracts traded, $1,788 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$1,788
Puts · 22-45 days · ITM puts cluster with 5 contracts traded, $1,275 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$1,275

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

High anomaly

97

Current options activity is unusually hot versus this ticker's stored history.

Baseline: 21 completed sessions

Volume rank100th
Volume/OI rank95th
IV rank95th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close19.64
1W-18.7%
RS-19.3
Fair value-4.4%
Options pressure-100
Speculation55
Volatility58
Trend fit31

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 0.6% history building
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 21/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 21/60 sessions -
IV 2.18 history building
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 21/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 21/60 sessions -
Put-call 21.30 history building
30d avg - · 7/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 13/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 13/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.65 history building
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 21/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 21/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:22 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 15.5%
30 Jul 11:10 Mixed
Pressure 7
Move 11.9%
31 Jul 10:44 Mixed
Pressure 7
Move 13.1%
2 Aug 06:38 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 12.1%
3 Aug 11:53 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 12.1%
4 Aug 11:03 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 11.5%
4 Aug 23:39 Volatility
Pressure 91
Move 10.6%
5 Aug 08:12 Mixed
Pressure 4
Move 8.3%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 1
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 5
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 41 · OI 42
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 18
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 6 · OI 10

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts13
Avg IV2.18
Put-call12.75
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts8
Avg IV0.87
Put-call0.28
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts2
Avg IV0.00
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts10
Avg IV0.66
Put-call38.32

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.02
Put IV1.09
Skew0.07
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.56
Put IV0.93
Skew0.37
18 Dec 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV-
Put IV-
Skew-
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.63
Put IV0.63
Skew0.00

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractMCFT260918C00025000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike25.00
Volume-
OI26
IV1.70
ContractMCFT260918P00020000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike20.00
Volume-
OI18
IV4.43
ContractMPX260918C00010000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI5
IV0.00
ContractMCFT260918C00022500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike22.50
Volume-
OI2
IV1.02
ContractMCFT261016P00017500
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike17.50
Volume-
OI2
IV0.93
ContractMPX261218C00010000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.00
ContractMPX260918C00017500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike17.50
Volume-
OI1
IV0.00
ContractMCFT260918P00015000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI1
IV4.94

Evidence context