Ticker Options Intelligence

HAFN options intelligence

Hafnia Limited options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 60 Market data through 16 Sep 2026 Checked 17 Sep 2026 12:43 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

HAFN currently carries volatility options pressure with a 60/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.14.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 5.3%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.14

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.03

Call-side skew

Trend fit 3

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +7.4%

RS 28.1

Expected move 5.3%
Put-call volume 0.03
Volume / OI 0.14
Reference IV 1.42
Max pain 10.00
Underlying 9.38
Nearest expiry 18 Sep 2026
Contracts 50

Research Brief

HAFN has a volatility chain read with 60/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 8.88–9.88; The largest call open-interest concentration is 10.00; the largest put concentration is 7.50. The most active strike by current volume is 10.00.

Priced range8.88–9.88
Call concentration10.00
Put concentration7.50
Max pain reference10.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 18 Sep

Options imply 8.88 to 9.88. Max pain at 10.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
8.889.38 ± 0.509.88
Confirmation level

A close beyond 9.88 or below 8.88 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 60/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation43 × 22%
+9.5

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement3 × 26%
+0.8

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility77 × 10%
+7.7

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score60.0Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 10.00; the largest put concentration is 7.50. The most active strike by current volume is 10.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
2.50-73.3%
0
1
5.00-46.7%
0
609
7.50-20.0%
41
241
10.006.6%
737
0
12.5033.3%
0
0
15.0059.9%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Reported + model-estimated Greeks · 88% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$169,859Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak10.00+$167,881
Negative peak7.50-$8,031
Nearest balance7.61Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
5.00-46.7%
-$161
7.50-20.0%
-$8,031
10.006.6%
+$167,881
12.5033.3%
+$10,241
17.5086.6%
-$72
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

3.37× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

1.42 18 Sep 2d
0.52 16 Oct 30d
0.43 15 Jan 121d
0.42 16 Apr 212d

Volatility by Strike

Smile incomplete

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.

10
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

11 matured · 6 directional

Across 6 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 67% of the time.

Directional follow-through67%
Moves contained by pricing100%
Average expiry move1.1%
18 Aug Mixed · 34 -0.1% through expiry 4.7% priced · v2.0
14 Aug Bearish · 44 -0.1% through expiry 5.8% priced · v2.0
12 Aug Bullish · 41 2.9% through expiry 5.3% priced · v2.0
11 Aug Bullish · 36 2.9% through expiry 6.0% priced · v2.0
7 Aug Mixed · 34 2.9% through expiry 7.3% priced · v2.0
6 Aug Volatility · 47 0.5% through expiry 8.1% priced · v2.0
5 Aug Mixed · 40 0.5% through expiry 9.1% priced · v2.0
4 Aug Bearish · 41 0.5% through expiry 9.1% priced · v2.0
3 Aug Bullish · 43 0.5% through expiry 8.8% priced · v2.0
31 Jul Mixed · 40 0.5% through expiry 9.8% priced · v2.0
30 Jul Bearish · 44 1.0% through expiry 10.1% priced · v2.0

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
16 Sep 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
50 / 50
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Volatility expansion bet

84/100
Primary intent Volatility expansion bet

The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $60,238 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 22-45 days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+100
1W price+7.4%
Call premium99%
Put premium1%
Notional split C 99% / P 1% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.14 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 3/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM calls cluster with 789 contracts traded, $24,645 estimated gross traded notional, and 41% of visible notional.
$24,645
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 86 contracts traded, $19,625 estimated gross traded notional, and 33% of visible notional.
$19,625
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 163 contracts traded, $9,508 estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$9,508
Calls · 0-7 days · OTM calls cluster with 249 contracts traded, $3,300 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$3,300
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM calls cluster with 6 contracts traded, $1,380 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$1,380

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

High anomaly

92

Current options activity is unusually hot versus this ticker's stored history.

Baseline: 21 completed sessions

Volume rank95th
Volume/OI rank86th
IV rank95th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close9.38
1W+7.4%
RS28.1
Fair value+75.2%
Options pressure100
Speculation43
Volatility77
Trend fit3

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 5.3% history building
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 21/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 21/60 sessions -
IV 1.42 history building
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 21/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 21/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.03 history building
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 21/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 21/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.14 history building
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 21/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 21/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:45 Mixed
Pressure 8
Move 10.8%
30 Jul 10:41 Bullish
Pressure 42
Move 10.1%
31 Jul 12:56 Bearish
Pressure -44
Move 10.1%
31 Jul 14:24 Mixed
Pressure 15
Move 9.8%
31 Jul 15:40 Mixed
Pressure 10
Move 9.8%
3 Aug 12:00 Mixed
Pressure -17
Move 9.8%
3 Aug 19:17 Bullish
Pressure 19
Move 9.1%
3 Aug 22:54 Bullish
Pressure 20
Move 8.8%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 15 · OI 1
Strike7.50
Calls · V 6 · OI 41
Puts · V 0 · OI 609
Strike10.00
Calls · V 234 · OI 737
Puts · V 3 · OI 241
Strike12.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike15.00
Calls · V 15 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts12
Avg IV1.42
Put-call0.07
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts12
Avg IV0.52
Put-call0.02
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts14
Avg IV0.43
Put-call-
Expiry16 Apr 2027
Contracts12
Avg IV0.42
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.31
Put IV1.76
Skew1.45
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.46
Skew0.10
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.43
Skew0.07
16 Apr 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.39
Put IV0.51
Skew0.13

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractHAFN261016C00010000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike10.00
Volume774
OI3284
IV0.37
ContractHAFN260918C00010000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike10.00
Volume234
OI737
IV0.31
ContractHAFN270115C00010000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike10.00
Volume109
OI669
IV0.31
ContractHAFN270115C00007500
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike7.50
Volume85
OI205
IV0.01
ContractHAFN270115C00012500
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike12.50
Volume28
OI94
IV0.37
ContractHAFN270416C00010000
SideCall
Expiry16 Apr 2027
Strike10.00
Volume26
OI691
IV0.31
ContractHAFN260918P00005000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike5.00
Volume15
OI1
IV4.06
ContractHAFN261016C00015000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike15.00
Volume15
OI-
IV0.67

Evidence context