Ticker Options Intelligence

CEPU options intelligence

Central Puerto S.A. options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 78 Market data through 16 Sep 2026 Checked 17 Sep 2026 14:23 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

CEPU currently carries volatility options pressure with a 78/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 10.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 1.41.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 10.8%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 1.41

Current volume is elevated versus prior open interest

Put-call -

Balanced tape

Trend fit 40

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +0.6%

RS -10.4

Expected move 10.8%
Put-call volume -
Volume / OI 1.41
Reference IV 2.19
Max pain 12.50
Underlying 14.13
Nearest expiry 18 Sep 2026
Contracts 84

Research Brief

CEPU has a volatility chain read with 78/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 12.60–15.66; The largest call open-interest concentration is 17.50; the largest put concentration is 12.50. The most active strike by current volume is 15.00.

Priced range12.60–15.66
Call concentration17.50
Put concentration12.50
Max pain reference12.50
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 18 Sep

Options imply 12.60 to 15.66. Max pain at 12.50 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
12.6014.13 ± 1.5315.66
Confirmation level

A close beyond 15.66 or below 12.60 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 78/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 100/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation73 × 22%
+16.0

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement40 × 26%
+10.4

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score78.1Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 17.50; the largest put concentration is 12.50. The most active strike by current volume is 15.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
2.50-82.3%
0
0
5.00-64.6%
0
0
7.50-46.9%
1
0
10.00-29.2%
0
101
12.50-11.5%
0
1
15.006.2%
4
0
17.5023.8%
6
0
20.0041.5%
0
0
22.5059.2%
0
0
25.0076.9%
0
0
30.00112.3%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Negative gamma proxy

Reported Greeks · 94% coverage

Put-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the call-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile-$74,342Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak15.00+$6,324
Negative peak12.50-$80,285
Nearest balance14.82Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
5.00-64.6%
-$10
7.50-46.9%
+$4
10.00-29.2%
-$905
12.50-11.5%
-$80,285
15.006.2%
+$6,324
17.5023.8%
+$109
20.0041.5%
+$9
22.5059.2%
+$405
25.0076.9%
+$6
30.00112.3%
+$1
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

5.55× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

2.19 18 Sep 2d
0.65 16 Oct 30d
0.54 15 Jan 121d
0.39 16 Apr 212d

Volatility by Strike

Balanced wings

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.

13
15
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

10 matured · 0 directional

10 stored transitions are available, but none had a directional bullish or bearish label.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing80%
Average expiry move10.2%
14 Aug Volatility · 63 -1.1% through expiry 14.9% priced · v2.0
13 Aug Volatility · 50 -7.2% through expiry 23.9% priced · v2.0
12 Aug Mixed · 33 -7.2% through expiry 18.9% priced · v2.0
10 Aug Volatility · 63 -7.2% through expiry 20.1% priced · v2.0
7 Aug Volatility · 65 -7.2% through expiry 26.4% priced · v2.0
5 Aug Volatility · 61 -14.9% through expiry 15.5% priced · v2.0
4 Aug Mixed · 34 -14.9% through expiry 15.9% priced · v2.0
3 Aug Volatility · 65 -14.9% through expiry 11.6% priced · v2.0
31 Jul Volatility · 48 -14.9% through expiry 16.2% priced · v2.0
30 Jul Volatility · 58 -12.2% through expiry 10.8% priced · v2.0

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
16 Sep 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
84 / 84
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Volatility expansion bet

92/100
Primary intent Volatility expansion bet

The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $649,608 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-100
1W price+0.6%
Call premium0%
Put premium100%
Notional split C 0% / P 100% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 1.41 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 40/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 91+ days · OTM
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 3130 contracts traded, $618,175 estimated gross traded notional, and 95% of visible notional.
$618,175
Puts · 22-45 days · OTM puts cluster with 3130 contracts traded, $31,300 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$31,300
Puts · 0-7 days · ITM puts cluster with 1 contracts traded, $133 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$133

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Speculative chase

Participation is active enough to treat follow-through risk carefully.

Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

High anomaly

100

Current options activity is unusually hot versus this ticker's stored history.

Baseline: 23 completed sessions

Volume rank100th
Volume/OI rank100th
IV rank100th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close14.13
1W+0.6%
RS-10.4
Fair value+21.0%
Options pressure-100
Speculation73
Volatility96
Trend fit40

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 10.8% near normal
30d avg 13.5% · 11 sessions 27th
90d avg - · 23/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 23/60 sessions -
IV 2.19 elevated
30d avg 0.88 · 11 sessions 100th
90d avg - · 23/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 23/60 sessions -
Put-call - history building
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 14/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 14/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 1.41 elevated
30d avg 0.03 · 11 sessions 100th
90d avg - · 23/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 23/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:58 Volatility
Pressure 88
Move 17.5%
30 Jul 07:48 Mixed
Pressure -12
Move 19.8%
31 Jul 04:38 Volatility
Pressure -39
Move 10.8%
31 Jul 14:44 Volatility
Pressure -92
Move 10.9%
31 Jul 23:05 Volatility
Pressure -85
Move 10.9%
3 Aug 13:11 Volatility
Pressure 76
Move 16.2%
4 Aug 11:04 Volatility
Pressure -72
Move 11.6%
5 Aug 11:30 Mixed
Pressure -12
Move 15.9%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike12.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 101
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 1 · OI 1
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 6
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts22
Avg IV2.19
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts22
Avg IV0.65
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts20
Avg IV0.54
Put-call-
Expiry16 Apr 2027
Contracts20
Avg IV0.39
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.70
Put IV0.67
Skew-0.03
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.18
Put IV0.18
Skew-
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.08
Put IV1.05
Skew0.97
16 Apr 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.78
Put IV0.07
Skew-0.70

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractCEPU261016P00012500
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike12.50
Volume3130
OI3406
IV0.18
ContractCEPU270115P00012500
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike12.50
Volume3130
OI10
IV0.87
ContractCEPU260918P00015000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike15.00
Volume1
OI1
IV0.01
ContractCEPU261016P00010000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI326
IV0.51
ContractCEPU261016C00015000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI251
IV0.18
ContractCEPU261016C00022500
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike22.50
Volume-
OI182
IV0.73
ContractCEPU260918P00012500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike12.50
Volume-
OI101
IV0.67
ContractCEPU261016P00005000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike5.00
Volume-
OI24
IV1.48

Evidence context