Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
MFC options intelligence
Manulife Financial Corp options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
42
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 14:50 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
MFC currently carries bullish options pressure with a 42/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.16.
Expected move
5.5%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.16
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.58
Call-side skew
Trend fit
65
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+0.6%
RS 15.4
Expected move
5.5%
Put-call volume
0.58
Volume / OI
0.16
Reference IV
0.02
Max pain
40.00
Underlying
43.67
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
129
Research Brief
MFC has a bullish chain read with 42/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 41.27–46.07; The largest call open-interest concentration is 40.00; the largest put concentration is 38.00. The most active strike by current volume is 42.00.
Priced range41.27–46.07
Call concentration40.00
Put concentration38.00
Max pain reference40.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 41.27 to 46.07. Max pain at 40.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
41.2743.67 ± 2.4046.07
Confirmation level
A close beyond 46.07 or below 41.27 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 42/100
Pressure is 32/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure32 × 42%
+13.5
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation44 × 22%
+9.6
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement65 × 26%
+17.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility23 × 10%
+2.3
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 40.00; the largest put concentration is 38.00. The most active strike by current volume is 42.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
29.00-33.6%
0
1
33.00-24.4%
0
2
34.00-22.1%
0
6
35.00-19.9%
0
65
36.00-17.6%
0
2
37.00-15.3%
1
158
38.00-13.0%
20
4
39.00-10.7%
4
93
40.00-8.4%
398
73
41.00-6.1%
35
78
42.00-3.8%
28
23
43.00-1.5%
155
55
44.000.8%
130
18
45.003.0%
90
0
46.005.3%
37
0
47.007.6%
72
0
48.009.9%
18
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.02
21 Aug
21d
0.02
18 Sep
49d
0.40
20 Nov
112d
0.07
18 Dec
140d
0.14
19 Mar
231d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 129 / 129
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Call-heavy activity with trend alignment
Call concentration and the underlying trend align, but aggregate volume cannot establish whether calls were bought or sold.
Call-side pressure is building before a meaningful weekly price response.
Call-heavy activity with trend alignment matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $500929 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow before price confirmation backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+32
1W price+0.6%
Call premium78%
Put premium22%
Notional split
C 78% / P 22%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.16
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
65/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
5 Aug
Matched earnings event is 5 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 538 contracts traded, $339851 estimated gross traded notional, and 68% of visible notional.
$339851
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
puts cluster with 159 contracts traded, $93810 estimated gross traded notional, and 19% of visible notional.
$93810
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 46 contracts traded, $26770 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$26770
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 15 contracts traded, $6374 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$6374
Puts · 46-90 days · OTM
puts cluster with 144 contracts traded, $6208 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$6208
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close43.67
1W+0.6%
RS15.4
Fair value+56.6%
Options pressure32
Speculation44
Volatility23
Trend fit65
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:06
Bullish
Pressure 33
Move 5.7%
30 Jul 10:04
Mixed
Pressure 11
Move 5.4%
30 Jul 17:11
Bullish
Pressure 31
Move 5.4%
31 Jul 13:09
Bullish
Pressure 22
Move 5.0%
31 Jul 13:50
Bullish
Pressure 32
Move 5.5%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike29.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike33.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike34.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 2
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 6
Strike36.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 65
Strike37.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 1 · OI 2
Strike38.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 20
Puts · V 1 · OI 158
Strike39.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 1 · OI 4
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts27
Avg IV0.02
Put-call1.18
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts38
Avg IV0.02
Put-call3.19
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts25
Avg IV0.40
Put-call0.11
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts29
Avg IV0.07
Put-call0.16
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts10
Avg IV0.14
Put-call0.04
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.03
Put IV0.13
Skew0.09
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.02
Put IV0.06
Skew0.05
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.30
Put IV0.32
Skew0.02
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.02
Put IV0.06
Skew0.05
19 Mar 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.35
Put IV0.03
Skew-0.31
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractMFC270319P00040000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike40.00
Volume-
OI5
IV0.03
ContractMFC261218P00033000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike33.00
Volume-
OI5
IV0.50
ContractMFC270319C00047000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike47.00
Volume-
OI5
IV0.35
ContractMFC260821C00039000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike39.00
Volume-
OI4
IV0.00
ContractMFC270319P00042000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike42.00
Volume-
OI3
IV0.02
ContractMFC261218P00032000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike32.00
Volume-
OI3
IV0.13
ContractMFC261218P00044000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike44.00
Volume-
OI3
IV0.01
ContractMFC270319P00035000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike35.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.06
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.