Ticker Options Intelligence

SMFG options intelligence

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 43 Market data through 21 Sep 2026 Checked 21 Sep 2026 21:58 · partial chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

SMFG currently carries bullish options pressure with a 43/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 7.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.05.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 7.2%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.05

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.42

Call-side skew

Trend fit 67

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop -3.8%

RS 13.6

Expected move 7.2%
Put-call volume 0.42
Volume / OI 0.05
Reference IV 0.68
Max pain 25.00
Underlying 26.24
Nearest expiry 16 Oct 2026
Contracts 33

Research Brief

SMFG has a bullish chain read with 43/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 24.34–28.14; The largest call open-interest concentration is 25.00; the largest put concentration is 25.00. The most active strike by current volume is 25.00.

Priced range24.34–28.14
Call concentration25.00
Put concentration25.00
Max pain reference25.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
  • Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 16 Oct

Options imply 24.34 to 28.14. Max pain at 25.00 sits inside that range, 4.7% below spot.

Spot Max pain
24.3426.24 ± 1.9028.14
Confirmation level

A close beyond 28.14 or below 24.34 at the 16 Oct expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 43/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 29/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure29 × 42%
+12.3

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation25 × 22%
+5.6

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement67 × 26%
+17.5

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility76 × 10%
+7.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score43.0Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 25.00; the largest put concentration is 25.00. The most active strike by current volume is 25.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
15
12.50-52.4%
0
17
15.00-42.8%
0
82
17.50-33.3%
2
83
20.00-23.8%
21
182
22.50-14.3%
24
655
25.00-4.7%
442
6
30.0014.3%
39
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Negative gamma proxy

Model-estimated Greeks · 100% coverage

Put-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the call-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile-$26,648Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak30.00+$9,768
Negative peak25.00-$13,380
Nearest balance27.89Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
12.50-52.4%
-$90
15.00-42.8%
-$1,528
17.50-33.3%
-$708
20.00-23.8%
-$13,328
22.50-14.3%
-$7,405
25.00-4.7%
-$13,380
30.0014.3%
+$9,768
35.0033.4%
+$23
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.25× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.68 16 Oct 25d
0.58 15 Jan 116d
0.54 16 Apr 207d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

23
25
30
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

29 matured · 20 directional

Across 20 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 45% of the time.

Directional follow-through45%
Moves contained by pricing90%
Average expiry move3.7%
17 Sep Mixed · 37 -3.8% through expiry 6.7% priced · v2.0
15 Sep Bullish · 47 -3.8% through expiry 4.7% priced · v2.0
11 Sep Bearish · 41 -3.8% through expiry 8.8% priced · v2.0
10 Sep Volatility · 58 -3.9% through expiry 11.5% priced · v2.0
8 Sep Mixed · 38 -3.9% through expiry 10.7% priced · v2.0
4 Sep Bearish · 49 -3.9% through expiry 8.4% priced · v2.0
2 Sep Bearish · 49 1.2% through expiry 8.0% priced · v2.0
28 Aug Bearish · 37 1.2% through expiry 6.3% priced · v2.0
27 Aug Bearish · 49 4.8% through expiry 6.0% priced · v2.0
26 Aug Bullish · 44 4.8% through expiry 5.9% priced · v2.0
25 Aug Bearish · 36 4.8% through expiry 6.2% priced · v2.0
24 Aug Mixed · 39 4.8% through expiry 6.1% priced · v2.0

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Good

B79/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Retained chain subset
Market date
21 Sep 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
33 / 33
  • 100% of provider contracts were retained for this snapshot.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Call activity against legacy put OI

72/100
Primary intent Call activity against legacy put OI

Call activity is dominant while put open interest remains large but current put volume is not leading.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow against weak price

Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.

Why this matters

Call activity against legacy put OI matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $27,918 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+29
1W price-3.8%
Call premium86%
Put premium14%
Notional split C 86% / P 14% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.05 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 67/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction. Do not infer a hedge unwind without next-session open-interest changes and opening/closing data.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · ITM
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 17 contracts traded, $11,125 estimated gross traded notional, and 40% of visible notional.
$11,125
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM calls cluster with 21 contracts traded, $7,142 estimated gross traded notional, and 26% of visible notional.
$7,142
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 67 contracts traded, $5,705 estimated gross traded notional, and 20% of visible notional.
$5,705
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 28 contracts traded, $2,342 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$2,342
Puts · 22-45 days · ITM puts cluster with 3 contracts traded, $1,110 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$1,110

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Warning Bullish pressure over fair value

Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.

Activity Anomaly

High anomaly

89

Current options activity is unusually hot versus this ticker's stored history.

Baseline: 32 completed sessions

Volume rank94th
Volume/OI rank94th
IV rank78th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close26.24
1W-3.8%
RS13.6
Fair value+68.9%
Options pressure29
Speculation25
Volatility76
Trend fit67

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 7.2% near normal
30d avg 7.5% · 13 sessions 54th
90d avg 6.9% · 32 sessions 59th
180d avg - · 32/60 sessions -
IV 0.68 elevated
30d avg 0.62 · 13 sessions 85th
90d avg 0.59 · 32 sessions 78th
180d avg - · 32/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.42 near normal
30d avg 4.75 · 11 sessions 27th
90d avg - · 28/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 28/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.05 elevated
30d avg 0.03 · 13 sessions 92th
90d avg 0.03 · 32 sessions 94th
180d avg - · 32/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
12 Aug 10:23 Bearish
Pressure -100
Move 5.1%
13 Aug 10:03 Bearish
Pressure -76
Move 5.2%
14 Aug 10:03 Mixed
Pressure 13
Move 7.6%
17 Aug 10:03 Bearish
Pressure -47
Move 6.8%
18 Aug 10:06 Bullish
Pressure 33
Move 9.0%
19 Aug 10:05 Mixed
Pressure -16
Move 3.8%
20 Aug 10:11 Bullish
Pressure 88
Move 3.5%
20 Aug 16:01 Mixed
Pressure 14
Move 2.8%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike12.50
Calls · V 3 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 15
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 4 · OI 17
Strike17.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 2
Puts · V 2 · OI 82
Strike20.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 21
Puts · V 2 · OI 83
Strike22.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 24
Puts · V 3 · OI 182
Strike25.00
Calls · V 15 · OI 442
Puts · V 2 · OI 655
Strike30.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 39
Puts · V 3 · OI 6

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts13
Avg IV0.68
Put-call0.71
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts10
Avg IV0.58
Put-call0.42
Expiry16 Apr 2027
Contracts10
Avg IV0.54
Put-call0.12

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.40
Put IV0.40
Skew0.00
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.30
Put IV0.39
Skew0.09
16 Apr 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.54
Skew0.17

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractSMFG270416C00025000
SideCall
Expiry16 Apr 2027
Strike25.00
Volume-
OI20
IV0.56
ContractSMFG270416P00015000
SidePut
Expiry16 Apr 2027
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI7
IV0.70
ContractSMFG270115P00012500
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike12.50
Volume-
OI4
IV1.12
ContractSMFG270115C00012500
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike12.50
Volume-
OI3
IV1.67
ContractSMFG270416P00030000
SidePut
Expiry16 Apr 2027
Strike30.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.46
ContractSMFG270416P00017500
SidePut
Expiry16 Apr 2027
Strike17.50
Volume-
OI1
IV0.55
ContractSMFG270416P00020000
SidePut
Expiry16 Apr 2027
Strike20.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.62
ContractSMFG270115C00030000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike30.00
Volume44
OI155
IV0.30

Research Graph

Related research and context

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Evidence context