Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
MPT options intelligence
Medical Properties Trust, Inc. options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
61
Market data through 12 Aug 2026
Checked 13 Aug 2026 13:20 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
MPT currently carries volatility options pressure with a 61/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 11.0%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.05.
Expected move
11.0%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.05
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
2.46
Put-side skew
Trend fit
98
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+1.5%
RS -13.5
Expected move
11.0%
Put-call volume
2.46
Volume / OI
0.05
Reference IV
1.27
Max pain
4.50
Underlying
4.70
Nearest expiry
14 Aug 2026
Contracts
464
Research Brief
MPT has a volatility chain read with 61/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 4.18–5.22; The largest call open-interest concentration is 5.00; the largest put concentration is 4.00. The most active strike by current volume is 4.50.
Priced range4.18–5.22
Call concentration5.00
Put concentration4.00
Max pain reference4.50
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 4.18 to 5.22. Max pain at 4.50 sits inside that range, 4.3% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
4.184.70 ± 0.525.22
Confirmation level
A close beyond 5.22 or below 4.18 at the 14 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 61/100
Pressure is 41/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure41 × 42%
+17.2
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+9.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement98 × 26%
+25.4
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 5.00; the largest put concentration is 4.00. The most active strike by current volume is 4.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
24
0.50-89.4%
189
14
1.00-78.7%
138
3
1.50-68.1%
10
4
2.00-57.4%
12
1
2.50-46.8%
26
60
3.00-36.2%
8
31
3.50-25.5%
1
3134
4.00-14.9%
850
2466
4.50-4.3%
5500
281
5.006.4%
6017
3
5.5017.0%
2172
12
6.0027.7%
0
1
6.5038.3%
1
3
7.0048.9%
1
6
7.5059.6%
7
1
8.0070.2%
2
0
9.0091.5%
4
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Balanced gamma proxy
Call- and put-side gamma sensitivity is broadly balanced across the retained chain. Individual strike concentrations may still matter more than the chain-wide net.
Net profile-$168,318Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak5.00+$205,718
Negative peak4.00-$354,054
Nearest balance4.47Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
0.50-89.4%
+$57
1.00-78.7%
-$83
1.50-68.1%
-$226
2.00-57.4%
-$10,317
2.50-46.8%
-$12,615
3.00-36.2%
-$47,483
3.50-25.5%
-$125,285
4.00-14.9%
-$354,054
4.50-4.3%
+$22,009
5.006.4%
+$205,718
5.5017.0%
+$99,592
6.0027.7%
+$21
6.5038.3%
+$2
7.0048.9%
+$11,598
7.5059.6%
+$1,941
8.0070.2%
-$45
8.5080.9%
-$21
9.0091.5%
+$5
10.00112.8%
+$30,107
12.00155.3%
+$9,290
12.50166.0%
+$1,471
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
1.27
14 Aug
2d
0.58
21 Aug
9d
0.46
28 Aug
16d
0.51
4 Sep
23d
0.41
11 Sep
30d
0.48
18 Sep
37d
0.56
25 Sep
44d
0.35
16 Oct
65d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
4
5
5
6
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 5 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 80% of the time.
Directional follow-through80%
Moves contained by pricing100%
Average expiry move2.0%
6 Aug
Bullish · 33
1.5% through expiry
2.7% priced · v2.0
5 Aug
Bullish · 36
1.5% through expiry
4.1% priced · v2.0
4 Aug
Bullish · 37
1.5% through expiry
4.1% priced · v2.0
3 Aug
Mixed · 32
1.5% through expiry
3.6% priced · v2.0
31 Jul
Bullish · 36
1.5% through expiry
5.0% priced · v2.0
30 Jul
Bullish · 42
-4.3% through expiry
6.5% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 12 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 464 / 464
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Volatility expansion bet
The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $2.3M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-41
1W price+1.5%
Call premium29%
Put premium71%
Notional split
C 29% / P 71%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.05
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
98/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 8314 contracts traded, $1.3M estimated gross traded notional, and 59% of visible notional.
$1.3M
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM
calls cluster with 1159 contracts traded, $257,947 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$257,947
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 1749 contracts traded, $182,092 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$182,092
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 868 contracts traded, $111,412 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$111,412
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 2951 contracts traded, $105,324 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$105,324
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Above normal
Activity is running above the recent historical baseline.
Baseline: 11 completed sessions
Volume rank82th
Volume/OI rank82th
IV rank91th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close4.70
1W+1.5%
RS-13.5
Fair value+7.9%
Options pressure-41
Speculation41
Volatility96
Trend fit98
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 5.5% · 11 sessions
100th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.87 · 11 sessions
91th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.80 · 11 sessions
100th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.05 · 11 sessions
82th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:53
Bullish
Pressure 39
Move 5.4%
30 Jul 10:43
Volatility
Pressure 78
Move 6.1%
31 Jul 13:28
Bullish
Pressure 54
Move 6.5%
31 Jul 15:40
Mixed
Pressure 17
Move 9.6%
31 Jul 17:00
Mixed
Pressure 18
Move 9.9%
31 Jul 19:44
Mixed
Pressure 11
Move 8.5%
31 Jul 20:52
Mixed
Pressure 9
Move 8.0%
2 Aug 15:29
Bullish
Pressure 39
Move 5.0%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike0.50
Calls · V 3 · OI 189
Puts · V 0 · OI 24
Strike1.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 138
Puts · V 0 · OI 14
Strike1.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 10
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike2.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 12
Puts · V 0 · OI 4
Strike2.50
Calls · V 3 · OI 26
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike3.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 8
Puts · V 0 · OI 60
Strike3.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 31
Strike4.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 850
Puts · V 428 · OI 3134
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV1.27
Put-call50.86
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV0.58
Put-call2.33
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV0.46
Put-call0.39
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV0.51
Put-call2.24
Expiry11 Sep 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV0.41
Put-call5.68
Skew
Call/put IV balance
14 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.66
Put IV0.43
Skew-1.23
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.79
Put IV0.34
Skew-0.45
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.59
Put IV0.61
Skew0.02
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.48
Put IV0.51
Skew0.03
11 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.42
Put IV0.49
Skew0.07
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractMPT270319P00005500
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike5.50
Volume8219
OI1910
IV0.53
ContractMPT270115P00004000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike4.00
Volume1925
OI12026
IV0.42
ContractMPT260918P00004000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike4.00
Volume1643
OI3030
IV0.36
ContractMPT260821P00004000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike4.00
Volume1101
OI1648
IV0.34
ContractMPT281215C00005000
SideCall
Expiry15 Dec 2028
Strike5.00
Volume1000
OI1070
IV0.36
ContractMPT260814P00004500
SidePut
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike4.50
Volume669
OI2466
IV1.70
ContractMPT260828C00004500
SideCall
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike4.50
Volume640
OI185
IV0.41
ContractMPT260828C00002000
SideCall
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike2.00
Volume625
OI8
IV0.01
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.