Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
ASTL options intelligence
Algoma Steel Group Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
52
Market data through 12 Aug 2026
Checked 13 Aug 2026 05:12 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
ASTL currently carries volatility options pressure with a 52/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 18.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.06.
Expected move
18.4%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.06
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.01
Call-side skew
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+5.8%
RS -17.8
Expected move
18.4%
Put-call volume
0.01
Volume / OI
0.06
Reference IV
0.91
Max pain
4.00
Underlying
4.08
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
104
Research Brief
ASTL has a volatility chain read with 52/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 3.32–4.83; The largest call open-interest concentration is 5.00; the largest put concentration is 4.00. The most active strike by current volume is 5.00.
Priced range3.32–4.83
Call concentration5.00
Put concentration4.00
Max pain reference4.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 3.32 to 4.83. Max pain at 4.00 sits inside that range, 1.8% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
3.324.08 ± 0.754.83
Confirmation level
A close beyond 4.83 or below 3.32 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 52/100
Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation4 × 22%
+0.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 5.00; the largest put concentration is 4.00. The most active strike by current volume is 5.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
1.00-75.5%
6
0
2.00-50.9%
0
1
3.00-26.4%
4
261
4.00-1.8%
405
160
5.0022.7%
2849
15
6.0047.2%
660
2
7.0071.8%
95
0
8.0096.3%
24
0
9.00120.9%
0
0
10.00145.4%
28
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$20,696Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak5.00+$20,839
Negative peak3.00-$6,898
Nearest balance3.59Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
2.00-50.9%
+$15
3.00-26.4%
-$6,898
4.00-1.8%
+$4,884
5.0022.7%
+$20,839
6.0047.2%
+$1,451
7.0071.8%
+$334
8.0096.3%
+$19
9.00120.9%
+$1
10.00145.4%
+$51
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.91
21 Aug
9d
0.71
18 Sep
37d
0.68
20 Nov
100d
0.78
15 Jan
156d
0.62
19 Feb
191d
0.57
21 Jan
527d
Volatility by Strike
Smile incomplete
There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.
4
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 12 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 104 / 104
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Volatility expansion bet
The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $13,985 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+100
1W price+5.8%
Call premium97%
Put premium3%
Notional split
C 97% / P 3%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.06
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 883 contracts traded, $13,245 estimated gross traded notional, and 95% of visible notional.
$13,245
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $330 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$330
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM
puts cluster with 2 contracts traded, $310 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$310
Puts · 8-21 days · ATM
puts cluster with 5 contracts traded, $100 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$100
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Normal range
Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.
Baseline: 10 completed sessions
Volume rank70th
Volume/OI rank60th
IV rank60th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close4.08
1W+5.8%
RS-17.8
Fair value-38.3%
Options pressure100
Speculation4
Volatility96
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 18.3% · 10 sessions
60th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.95 · 10 sessions
60th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 9/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 9/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.06 · 10 sessions
60th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 11:22
Volatility
Pressure -100
Move 18.8%
30 Jul 11:10
Volatility
Pressure 98
Move 16.8%
30 Jul 21:40
Volatility
Pressure 81
Move 15.6%
31 Jul 04:38
Volatility
Pressure 82
Move 15.6%
31 Jul 13:57
Volatility
Pressure 81
Move 13.7%
31 Jul 18:58
Volatility
Pressure 65
Move 13.7%
3 Aug 05:29
Volatility
Pressure -89
Move 15.3%
3 Aug 21:59
Volatility
Pressure 64
Move 15.6%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike1.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 6
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike2.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike3.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike4.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 405
Puts · V 5 · OI 261
Strike5.00
Calls · V 883 · OI 2849
Puts · V 0 · OI 160
Strike6.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 660
Puts · V 2 · OI 15
Strike7.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 95
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike8.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 24
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.91
Put-call0.01
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.71
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts18
Avg IV0.68
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts20
Avg IV0.78
Put-call-
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts18
Avg IV0.62
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.48
Put IV1.46
Skew0.98
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.73
Put IV0.24
Skew-0.49
20 Nov 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.30
Put IV0.15
Skew-0.15
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.24
Put IV0.81
Skew0.58
19 Feb 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.21
Put IV0.81
Skew0.60
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractASTL260821C00005000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike5.00
Volume883
OI2849
IV0.48
ContractASTL260821P00004000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike4.00
Volume5
OI261
IV1.46
ContractASTL260821P00006000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike6.00
Volume2
OI15
IV0.92
ContractASTL280121C00002000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike2.00
Volume1
OI30
IV1.34
ContractASTL270115P00003000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike3.00
Volume-
OI5234
IV0.83
ContractASTL270115C00004000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike4.00
Volume-
OI1210
IV0.73
ContractASTL260821C00006000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike6.00
Volume-
OI660
IV1.02
ContractASTL270115C00005000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike5.00
Volume-
OI538
IV0.74
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.