Ticker Options Intelligence

DX options intelligence

Dynex Capital Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 47 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 15:19 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

DX currently carries volatility options pressure with a 47/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 4.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 4.4%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.02

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.18

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +0.9%

RS -6.9

Expected move 4.4%
Put-call volume 0.18
Volume / OI 0.02
Reference IV 1.04
Max pain 12.50
Underlying 12.60
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 48

Research Brief

DX has a volatility chain read with 47/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 12.05–13.15; The largest call open-interest concentration is 12.50; the largest put concentration is 12.50. The most active strike by current volume is 12.50.

Priced range12.05–13.15
Call concentration12.50
Put concentration12.50
Max pain reference12.50
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 12.05 to 13.15. Max pain at 12.50 sits inside that range, 0.8% below spot.

Spot Max pain
12.0512.60 ± 0.5513.15
Confirmation level

A close beyond 13.15 or below 12.05 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 47/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 74/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure74 × 42%
+31.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation40 × 22%
+8.9

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility73 × 10%
+7.3

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score47.3Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 12.50; the largest put concentration is 12.50. The most active strike by current volume is 12.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
2.50-80.2%
1
2
5.00-60.3%
8
0
7.50-40.5%
2
0
10.00-20.6%
1
2131
12.50-0.8%
582
79
15.0019.0%
117
0
17.5038.9%
1
0
22.5078.6%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.68× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

1.04 21 Aug 21d
0.43 18 Sep 49d
0.50 18 Dec 140d
0.62 19 Mar 231d

Volatility by Strike

Smile incomplete

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.

13
15
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A95/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes94%
Open interest96%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
48 / 48
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Volatility expansion bet

81/100
Primary intent Volatility expansion bet

The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $175460 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+74
1W price+0.9%
Call premium85%
Put premium15%
Notional split C 85% / P 15% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.02 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · ITM
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 171 contracts traded, $111860 estimated gross traded notional, and 64% of visible notional.
$111860
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 22 contracts traded, $18800 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$18800
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM puts cluster with 20 contracts traded, $14778 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$14778
Calls · 91+ days · ATM calls cluster with 192 contracts traded, $9600 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$9600
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 16 contracts traded, $8988 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$8988

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close12.71
1W+0.9%
RS-6.9
Fair value+21.1%
Options pressure74
Speculation40
Volatility73
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 4.4% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 1.04 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.18 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.02 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:55 Bullish
Pressure 81
Move 5.2%
30 Jul 10:45 Bearish
Pressure -56
Move 5.2%
31 Jul 09:27 Bullish
Pressure 59
Move 4.8%
31 Jul 14:19 Volatility
Pressure 74
Move 4.4%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 2 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 8
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike7.50
Calls · V 2 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike10.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike12.50
Calls · V 86 · OI 582
Puts · V 24 · OI 2131
Strike15.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 117
Puts · V 2 · OI 79
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts11
Avg IV1.04
Put-call0.27
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts17
Avg IV0.43
Put-call0.61
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts12
Avg IV0.50
Put-call0.21
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts8
Avg IV0.62
Put-call0.02

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.47
Put IV0.31
Skew-0.16
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.31
Put IV0.23
Skew-0.08
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.19
Put IV0.30
Skew0.11
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.17
Put IV0.35
Skew0.17

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractDX260821P00022500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike22.50
Volume-
OI-
IV2.42
ContractDX270319P00025000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike25.00
Volume-
OI6
IV0.70
ContractDX260918P00002500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike2.50
Volume-
OI3
IV2.31
ContractDX260821P00005000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike5.00
Volume-
OI2
IV2.05
ContractDX261218P00022500
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike22.50
Volume-
OI1
IV0.64
ContractDX260918P00022500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike22.50
Volume-
OI1
IV0.70
ContractDX260821C00017500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike17.50
Volume-
OI1
IV0.89
ContractDX261218C00012500
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike12.50
Volume97
OI5923
IV0.20