Ticker Options Intelligence

DX options intelligence

Dynex Capital Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 40 Market data through 16 Sep 2026 Checked 17 Sep 2026 12:46 · complete available chain

Put-side pressure

Bearish pressure

DX currently carries bearish options pressure with a 40/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 3.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bearish

Put-side pressure

Expected move 3.4%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.03

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 1.71

Put-side skew

Trend fit 82

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop -2.7%

RS -11.9

Expected move 3.4%
Put-call volume 1.71
Volume / OI 0.03
Reference IV 0.95
Max pain 12.50
Underlying 12.52
Nearest expiry 18 Sep 2026
Contracts 80

Research Brief

DX has a bearish chain read with 40/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 12.10–12.94; The largest call open-interest concentration is 15.00; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 12.50.

Priced range12.10–12.94
Call concentration15.00
Put concentration10.00
Max pain reference12.50
What would confirm it
  • Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
  • Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
What would weaken it
  • Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 18 Sep

Options imply 12.10 to 12.94. Max pain at 12.50 sits inside that range, 0.2% below spot.

Spot Max pain
12.1012.52 ± 0.4212.94
Confirmation level

A close beyond 12.94 or below 12.10 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 40/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 21/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure21 × 42%
+8.8

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation14 × 22%
+3.1

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement82 × 26%
+21.2

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility70 × 10%
+7.0

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score40.0Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 15.00; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 12.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
3
2.50-80.0%
4
0
5.00-60.1%
1
0
7.50-40.1%
6
2642
10.00-20.1%
5
2525
12.50-0.2%
1308
103
15.0019.8%
7322
0
17.5039.8%
345
0
20.0059.7%
5
0
22.5079.7%
0
0
25.0099.7%
5
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Reported + model-estimated Greeks · 85% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$366,158Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak12.50+$309,584
Negative peak10.00-$19,360
Nearest balance10.15Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
2.50-80.0%
+$2
5.00-60.1%
+$19
7.50-40.1%
+$74
10.00-20.1%
-$19,360
12.50-0.2%
+$309,584
15.0019.8%
+$74,993
17.5039.8%
+$1,011
20.0059.7%
+$10
22.5079.7%
-$13
25.0099.7%
-$162
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

3.23× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.95 18 Sep 2d
0.42 16 Oct 30d
0.36 18 Dec 93d
0.29 19 Mar 184d

Volatility by Strike

Smile incomplete

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.

13
15
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

20 matured · 13 directional

Across 13 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 54% of the time.

Directional follow-through54%
Moves contained by pricing65%
Average expiry move3.0%
16 Sep Bearish · 40 -2.7% through expiry 3.4% priced · v2.0
14 Sep Mixed · 36 -2.7% through expiry 2.2% priced · v2.0
10 Sep Bearish · 47 -5.6% through expiry 2.3% priced · v2.0
8 Sep Mixed · 24 -5.6% through expiry 4.1% priced · v2.0
3 Sep Bullish · 44 -5.7% through expiry 3.9% priced · v2.0
1 Sep Bullish · 28 -5.7% through expiry 3.3% priced · v2.0
28 Aug Bearish · 62 -5.7% through expiry 4.5% priced · v2.0
21 Aug Bullish · 39 -6.5% through expiry 5.3% priced · v2.0
20 Aug Volatility · 50 -0.2% through expiry 9.0% priced · v2.0
14 Aug Bullish · 33 -0.2% through expiry 4.7% priced · v2.0
13 Aug Mixed · 33 0.6% through expiry 3.9% priced · v2.0
12 Aug Volatility · 53 0.6% through expiry 5.4% priced · v2.0

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
16 Sep 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
80 / 80
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Put-heavy activity

64/100
Primary intent Put-heavy activity

Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.

Flow vs price divergence Bearish flow confirms price

Options pressure and weekly price action are both cautionary.

Why this matters

Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $61,107 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 22-45 days · atm, and a bearish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-21
1W price-2.7%
Call premium43%
Put premium57%
Notional split C 43% / P 57% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.03 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 82/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 22-45 days · ATM
Puts · 22-45 days · ATM puts cluster with 325 contracts traded, $18,688 estimated gross traded notional, and 31% of visible notional.
$18,688
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 17 contracts traded, $15,545 estimated gross traded notional, and 25% of visible notional.
$15,545
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 20 contracts traded, $7,300 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$7,300
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM calls cluster with 10 contracts traded, $5,788 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$5,788
Puts · 91+ days · ATM puts cluster with 48 contracts traded, $4,755 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$4,755

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Activity Anomaly

Above normal

83

Activity is running above the recent historical baseline.

Baseline: 21 completed sessions

Volume rank76th
Volume/OI rank76th
IV rank95th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close12.18
1W-2.7%
RS-11.9
Fair value+14.1%
Options pressure-21
Speculation14
Volatility70
Trend fit82

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 3.4% history building
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 21/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 21/60 sessions -
IV 0.95 history building
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 21/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 21/60 sessions -
Put-call 1.71 history building
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 21/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 21/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.03 history building
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 21/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 21/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:55 Bullish
Pressure 81
Move 5.2%
30 Jul 10:45 Bearish
Pressure -56
Move 5.2%
31 Jul 09:27 Bullish
Pressure 59
Move 4.8%
31 Jul 14:19 Volatility
Pressure 74
Move 4.4%
2 Aug 05:09 Bullish
Pressure 23
Move 4.5%
4 Aug 00:23 Bearish
Pressure -45
Move 3.0%
5 Aug 10:33 Mixed
Pressure 17
Move 3.7%
6 Aug 10:44 Bullish
Pressure 74
Move 3.9%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 6
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 5
Puts · V 0 · OI 2642
Strike12.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1308
Puts · V 24 · OI 2525
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 7322
Puts · V 2 · OI 103
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 345
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 5
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.95
Put-call26.00
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.42
Put-call1.68
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.36
Put-call4.15
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts20
Avg IV0.29
Put-call0.55

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.38
Put IV1.34
Skew-0.04
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.36
Put IV0.35
Skew-0.01
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.19
Put IV0.20
Skew0.01
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.13
Put IV0.32
Skew0.19

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractDX261016P00012500
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike12.50
Volume325
OI3020
IV0.29
ContractDX261016C00012500
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike12.50
Volume185
OI387
IV0.14
ContractDX261218P00010000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike10.00
Volume125
OI162
IV0.20
ContractDX270319C00012500
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike12.50
Volume88
OI1715
IV0.08
ContractDX261218P00012500
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike12.50
Volume41
OI2774
IV0.33
ContractDX270319P00010000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike10.00
Volume28
OI67
IV0.32
ContractDX261218C00012500
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike12.50
Volume27
OI6358
IV0.11
ContractDX260918P00012500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike12.50
Volume24
OI2525
IV0.43

Evidence context