Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
ADP options intelligence
Automatic Data Processing Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
42
Market data through 21 Sep 2026
Checked 22 Sep 2026 07:49 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
ADP currently carries mixed options pressure with a 42/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 2.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.04.
Expected move
2.5%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.04
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.20
Balanced tape
Trend fit
94
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+1.1%
RS 0.7
Expected move
2.5%
Put-call volume
1.20
Volume / OI
0.04
Reference IV
0.31
Max pain
275.00
Underlying
271.22
Nearest expiry
25 Sep 2026
Contracts
1460
Research Brief
ADP has a mixed chain read with 42/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 264.37–278.07; The largest call open-interest concentration is 275.00; the largest put concentration is 275.00. The most active strike by current volume is 280.00.
Priced range264.37–278.07
Call concentration275.00
Put concentration275.00
Max pain reference275.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 264.37 to 278.07. Max pain at 275.00 sits inside that range, 1.4% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
264.37271.22 ± 6.85278.07
Confirmation level
A close beyond 278.07 or below 264.37 at the 25 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 42/100
Pressure is 12/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure12 × 42%
+5.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+9.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement94 × 26%
+24.4
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility31 × 10%
+3.1
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 275.00; the largest put concentration is 275.00. The most active strike by current volume is 280.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
24
255.00-6.0%
1
22
257.50-5.1%
0
22
260.00-4.1%
4
8
265.00-2.3%
16
31
267.50-1.4%
4
57
270.00-0.4%
13
0
272.500.5%
9
294
275.001.4%
248
0
277.502.3%
19
27
280.003.2%
23
5
282.504.2%
3
3
285.005.1%
36
0
287.506.0%
50
0
290.006.9%
22
0
295.008.8%
39
1
300.0010.6%
14
0
305.0012.5%
23
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Balanced gamma proxy
Call- and put-side gamma sensitivity is broadly balanced across the retained chain. Individual strike concentrations may still matter more than the chain-wide net.
Net profile+$689,257Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak290.00+$1.3M
Negative peak260.00-$1.9M
Nearest balance272.39Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
245.00-9.7%
-$12,903
250.00-7.8%
-$398,828
252.50-6.9%
-$290
255.00-6.0%
-$84,010
257.50-5.1%
-$30,649
260.00-4.1%
-$1.9M
262.50-3.2%
-$13,439
265.00-2.3%
+$8,937
267.50-1.4%
-$90,180
270.00-0.4%
-$566,822
272.500.5%
+$26,210
275.001.4%
-$150,254
277.502.3%
+$44,599
280.003.2%
+$731,588
282.504.2%
-$2,907
285.005.1%
+$61,015
287.506.0%
+$42,805
290.006.9%
+$1.3M
292.507.8%
+$1,125
295.008.8%
+$25,378
297.509.7%
+$675
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.31
25 Sep
4d
0.27
2 Oct
11d
0.27
9 Oct
18d
0.26
16 Oct
25d
0.28
23 Oct
32d
0.31
30 Oct
39d
0.30
20 Nov
60d
0.29
18 Dec
88d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
220
228
233
238
240
245
250
255
260
265
268
273
278
283
288
293
298
300
305
315
325
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 18 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 33% of the time.
Directional follow-through33%
Moves contained by pricing83%
Average expiry move1.9%
16 Sep
Bullish · 40
1.1% through expiry
2.3% priced · v2.0
14 Sep
Bearish · 47
1.1% through expiry
4.2% priced · v2.0
11 Sep
Mixed · 38
1.1% through expiry
2.7% priced · v2.0
10 Sep
Bullish · 55
-3.4% through expiry
4.4% priced · v2.0
8 Sep
Bearish · 46
-3.4% through expiry
4.3% priced · v2.0
4 Sep
Mixed · 41
-3.4% through expiry
2.7% priced · v2.0
3 Sep
Mixed · 40
-4.0% through expiry
2.3% priced · v2.0
1 Sep
Bullish · 34
-4.0% through expiry
2.6% priced · v2.0
28 Aug
Bullish · 45
-4.0% through expiry
2.9% priced · v2.0
27 Aug
Mixed · 43
1.7% through expiry
2.3% priced · v2.0
26 Aug
Bearish · 43
1.7% through expiry
2.2% priced · v2.0
25 Aug
Mixed · 41
1.7% through expiry
2.3% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 21 Sep 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 1460 / 1460
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $554,398 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · otm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-12
1W price+1.1%
Call premium40%
Put premium60%
Notional split
C 40% / P 60%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.04
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
94/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 259 contracts traded, $158,258 estimated gross traded notional, and 29% of visible notional.
$158,258
Puts · 46-90 days · OTM
puts cluster with 315 contracts traded, $102,112 estimated gross traded notional, and 18% of visible notional.
$102,112
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 7 contracts traded, $65,570 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$65,570
Puts · 0-7 days · ATM
puts cluster with 113 contracts traded, $26,770 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$26,770
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
calls cluster with 147 contracts traded, $26,670 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$26,670
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Normal range
Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.
Baseline: 33 completed sessions
Volume rank30th
Volume/OI rank30th
IV rank42th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close271.22
1W+1.1%
RS0.7
Fair value+6.4%
Options pressure-12
Speculation41
Volatility31
Trend fit94
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 2.9% · 14 sessions
36th
90d avg 3.3% · 33 sessions
30th
180d avg - · 33/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.34 · 14 sessions
43th
90d avg 0.34 · 33 sessions
42th
180d avg - · 33/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.99 · 14 sessions
71th
90d avg 1.58 · 33 sessions
67th
180d avg - · 33/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.08 · 14 sessions
43th
90d avg 0.08 · 33 sessions
30th
180d avg - · 33/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
12 Aug 07:21
Mixed
Pressure 16
Move 2.5%
13 Aug 10:00
Bullish
Pressure 39
Move 2.0%
14 Aug 09:33
Bullish
Pressure 29
Move 2.2%
14 Aug 18:09
Bearish
Pressure -20
Move 0.9%
17 Aug 12:57
Mixed
Pressure -11
Move 3.1%
18 Aug 10:07
Bearish
Pressure -94
Move 3.1%
18 Aug 18:27
Bearish
Pressure -61
Move 2.2%
19 Aug 11:53
Mixed
Pressure 10
Move 2.6%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike140.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike145.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike150.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike155.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike160.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike165.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike170.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike175.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry25 Sep 2026
Contracts118
Avg IV0.31
Put-call0.49
Expiry2 Oct 2026
Contracts108
Avg IV0.27
Put-call1.80
Expiry9 Oct 2026
Contracts104
Avg IV0.27
Put-call0.10
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts108
Avg IV0.26
Put-call0.25
Expiry23 Oct 2026
Contracts84
Avg IV0.28
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
25 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.33
Put IV0.31
Skew-0.02
2 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.29
Put IV0.29
Skew-
9 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.28
Put IV0.28
Skew-
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.27
Put IV0.28
Skew0.01
23 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.31
Put IV0.31
Skew-
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractADP261120P00240000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike240.00
Volume302
OI451
IV0.33
ContractADP260925C00280000
SideCall
Expiry25 Sep 2026
Strike280.00
Volume141
OI23
IV0.33
ContractADP260925P00267500
SidePut
Expiry25 Sep 2026
Strike267.50
Volume100
OI31
IV0.30
ContractADP261120C00370000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike370.00
Volume98
OI10
IV0.35
ContractADP261016C00290000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike290.00
Volume90
OI427
IV0.28
ContractADP261002P00260000
SidePut
Expiry2 Oct 2026
Strike260.00
Volume51
OI906
IV0.29
ContractADP260925C00272500
SideCall
Expiry25 Sep 2026
Strike272.50
Volume44
OI9
IV0.32
ContractADP260925C00290000
SideCall
Expiry25 Sep 2026
Strike290.00
Volume30
OI22
IV0.26
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
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Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.