Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
MBX options intelligence
MBX Biosciences, Inc. Common Stock options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
60
Market data through 16 Sep 2026
Checked 17 Sep 2026 13:40 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
MBX currently carries bullish options pressure with a 60/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 4.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.06.
Expected move
4.3%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.06
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.01
Call-side skew
Trend fit
11
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+6.6%
RS 50.9
Expected move
4.3%
Put-call volume
0.01
Volume / OI
0.06
Reference IV
0.58
Max pain
65.00
Underlying
59.02
Nearest expiry
18 Sep 2026
Contracts
258
Research Brief
MBX has a bullish chain read with 60/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 56.49–61.55; The largest call open-interest concentration is 70.00; the largest put concentration is 60.00. The most active strike by current volume is 60.00.
Priced range56.49–61.55
Call concentration70.00
Put concentration60.00
Max pain reference65.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 56.49 to 61.55. Max pain at 65.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
56.4959.02 ± 2.5361.55
Confirmation level
A close beyond 61.55 or below 56.49 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 60/100
Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+9.1
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement11 × 26%
+3.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility58 × 10%
+5.8
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 70.00; the largest put concentration is 60.00. The most active strike by current volume is 60.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
30.00-49.2%
0
0
35.00-40.7%
0
0
40.00-32.2%
0
0
45.00-23.8%
0
11
50.00-15.3%
0
2
55.00-6.8%
0
165
60.001.7%
3
152
65.0010.1%
23
5
70.0018.6%
62
0
75.0027.1%
18
0
80.0035.5%
9
0
85.0044.0%
2
0
90.0052.5%
2
0
95.0061.0%
3
0
100.0069.4%
1
0
105.0077.9%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Balanced gamma proxy
Call- and put-side gamma sensitivity is broadly balanced across the retained chain. Individual strike concentrations may still matter more than the chain-wide net.
Net profile-$6,868Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak50.00+$24,756
Negative peak60.00-$34,755
Nearest balance55.07Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
15.00-74.6%
+$316
17.50-70.3%
-$1
20.00-66.1%
+$2
22.50-61.9%
+$50
25.00-57.6%
+$450
30.00-49.2%
-$464
35.00-40.7%
+$317
40.00-32.2%
-$385
45.00-23.8%
+$556
50.00-15.3%
+$24,756
55.00-6.8%
+$460
60.001.7%
-$34,755
65.0010.1%
-$20,632
70.0018.6%
+$9,087
75.0027.1%
+$3,153
80.0035.5%
+$7,943
85.0044.0%
+$894
90.0052.5%
+$754
95.0061.0%
+$407
100.0069.4%
+$80
105.0077.9%
+$78
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.58
18 Sep
2d
0.69
16 Oct
30d
1.00
18 Dec
93d
1.01
15 Jan
121d
0.92
16 Apr
212d
0.81
21 Jan
492d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
50
55
60
65
70
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 8 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 62% of the time.
Directional follow-through63%
Moves contained by pricing96%
Average expiry move2.6%
16 Sep
Bullish · 60
6.6% through expiry
4.3% priced · v2.0
14 Sep
Bearish · 36
6.6% through expiry
8.9% priced · v2.0
11 Sep
Mixed · 37
6.6% through expiry
7.2% priced · v2.0
10 Sep
Bearish · 44
1.9% through expiry
6.2% priced · v2.0
8 Sep
Bearish · 37
1.9% through expiry
11.6% priced · v2.0
4 Sep
Mixed · 36
-0.1% through expiry
10.6% priced · v2.0
3 Sep
Bearish · 41
-0.1% through expiry
13.6% priced · v2.0
2 Sep
Volatility · 53
-0.1% through expiry
12.9% priced · v2.0
28 Aug
Volatility · 54
-0.1% through expiry
13.2% priced · v2.0
24 Aug
Volatility · 62
-5.2% through expiry
16.4% priced · v2.0
21 Aug
Volatility · 61
-5.2% through expiry
17.8% priced · v2.0
17 Aug
Volatility · 56
-3.3% through expiry
9.2% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 16 Sep 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 258 / 258
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $107,188 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+100
1W price+6.6%
Call premium95%
Put premium5%
Notional split
C 95% / P 5%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.06
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
11/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 148 contracts traded, $95,190 estimated gross traded notional, and 89% of visible notional.
$95,190
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 2 contracts traded, $5,200 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$5,200
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
calls cluster with 10 contracts traded, $3,000 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$3,000
Calls · 91+ days · ATM
calls cluster with 2 contracts traded, $2,920 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$2,920
Calls · 0-7 days · ATM
calls cluster with 3 contracts traded, $878 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$878
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Normal range
Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.
Baseline: 24 completed sessions
Volume rank75th
Volume/OI rank75th
IV rank12th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close62.91
1W+6.6%
RS50.9
Fair value+141.5%
Options pressure100
Speculation41
Volatility58
Trend fit11
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 11.6% · 11 sessions
0th
90d avg - · 24/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 24/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.68 · 11 sessions
27th
90d avg - · 24/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 24/60 sessions
-
30d avg 5.44 · 10 sessions
10th
90d avg - · 23/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 23/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.05 · 11 sessions
73th
90d avg - · 24/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 24/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
30 Jul 15:03
Volatility
Pressure 53
Move 20.8%
30 Jul 15:34
Volatility
Pressure 53
Move 20.2%
30 Jul 19:57
Volatility
Pressure 48
Move 20.3%
3 Aug 12:44
Volatility
Pressure 85
Move 18.2%
3 Aug 18:54
Volatility
Pressure 52
Move 16.8%
4 Aug 15:40
Volatility
Pressure 52
Move 16.8%
4 Aug 16:34
Volatility
Pressure 52
Move 17.3%
5 Aug 05:26
Volatility
Pressure 92
Move 18.5%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 11
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike60.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 165
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 23
Puts · V 0 · OI 152
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts32
Avg IV0.58
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts42
Avg IV0.69
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts52
Avg IV1.00
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts52
Avg IV1.01
Put-call-
Expiry16 Apr 2027
Contracts28
Avg IV0.92
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.35
Put IV0.66
Skew0.31
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.71
Put IV0.84
Skew0.14
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.90
Put IV1.00
Skew0.10
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.90
Put IV1.03
Skew0.13
16 Apr 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.84
Put IV0.92
Skew0.08
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractMBX270115C00100000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike100.00
Volume60
OI1
IV0.90
ContractMBX270115C00090000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike90.00
Volume50
OI12
IV0.91
ContractMBX270115C00070000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike70.00
Volume20
OI129
IV0.98
ContractMBX270115C00075000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike75.00
Volume10
OI26
IV0.96
ContractMBX261016C00070000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike70.00
Volume10
OI12
IV0.83
ContractMBX270115C00065000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike65.00
Volume4
OI70
IV0.99
ContractMBX260918C00060000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike60.00
Volume3
OI3
IV1.14
ContractMBX270115C00060000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike60.00
Volume2
OI104
IV0.98
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
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Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.