Ticker Options Intelligence

NMG options intelligence

Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 44 Market data through 16 Sep 2026 Checked 16 Sep 2026 15:26 · partial chain

Put-side pressure

Bearish pressure

NMG currently carries bearish options pressure with a 44/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 81.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bearish

Put-side pressure

Expected move 81.5%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.01

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 2.00

Put-side skew

Trend fit 83

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop -3.6%

RS -44.0

Expected move 81.5%
Put-call volume 2.00
Volume / OI 0.01
Reference IV 10.91
Max pain 2.50
Underlying 1.35
Nearest expiry 18 Sep 2026
Contracts 13

Research Brief

NMG has a bearish chain read with 44/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 0.25–2.45; The largest call open-interest concentration is 2.50; the largest put concentration is 2.50. The most active strike by current volume is 2.50.

Priced range0.25–2.45
Call concentration2.50
Put concentration2.50
Max pain reference2.50
What would confirm it
  • Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
  • Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
What would weaken it
  • Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 18 Sep

Options imply 0.25 to 2.45. Max pain at 2.50 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
0.251.35 ± 1.102.45
Confirmation level

A close beyond 2.45 or below 0.25 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 44/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 25/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure25 × 42%
+10.6

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation8 × 22%
+1.8

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement83 × 26%
+21.5

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score43.5Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 2.50; the largest put concentration is 2.50. The most active strike by current volume is 2.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
4
2.5085.2%
44
0
5.00270.4%
1
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Model-estimated Greeks · 100% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$926Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak2.50+$829
Negative peak-No negative strike
Nearest balance-Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
2.5085.2%
+$829
5.00270.4%
+$81
7.50455.6%
+$16
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

5.81× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

10.91 18 Sep 2d
2.32 20 Nov 65d
1.88 19 Feb 156d

Volatility by Strike

Smile incomplete

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.

Comparable strike volatility is unavailable.

Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

12 matured · 1 directional

Across 1 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 100% of the time.

Directional follow-through100%
Moves contained by pricing100%
Average expiry move10.7%
19 Aug Bullish · 35 2.0% through expiry 79.6% priced · v2.0
17 Aug Volatility · 52 2.0% through expiry 71.1% priced · v2.0
14 Aug Volatility · 52 2.0% through expiry 69.4% priced · v2.0
12 Aug Volatility · 52 8.7% through expiry 80.1% priced · v2.0
10 Aug Volatility · 48 8.7% through expiry 83.7% priced · v2.0
7 Aug Volatility · 52 8.7% through expiry 87.3% priced · v2.0
6 Aug Volatility · 51 15.4% through expiry 94.6% priced · v2.0
5 Aug Volatility · 52 15.4% through expiry 88.8% priced · v2.0
4 Aug Mixed · 34 15.4% through expiry 71.5% priced · v2.0
3 Aug Volatility · 52 15.4% through expiry 100.4% priced · v2.0
31 Jul Volatility · 55 15.4% through expiry 96.5% priced · v2.0
30 Jul Volatility · 52 19.0% through expiry 103.6% priced · v2.0

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Retained chain subset
Market date
16 Sep 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
13 / 13
  • 100% of provider contracts were retained for this snapshot.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Put-heavy activity

76/100
Primary intent Put-heavy activity

Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.

Flow vs price divergence Bearish flow confirms price

Options pressure and weekly price action are both cautionary.

Why this matters

Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $7,302 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · itm, and a bearish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-25
1W price-3.6%
Call premium1%
Put premium99%
Notional split C 1% / P 99% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.01 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 83/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 91+ days · ITM
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 11 contracts traded, $3,732 estimated gross traded notional, and 51% of visible notional.
$3,732
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM puts cluster with 7 contracts traded, $3,060 estimated gross traded notional, and 42% of visible notional.
$3,060
Puts · 0-7 days · ITM puts cluster with 4 contracts traded, $420 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$420
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 5 contracts traded, $60 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$60
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 5 contracts traded, $25 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$25

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Warning Bearish pressure under fair value

Put pressure is building after the stock has already moved below fair value.

Activity Anomaly

Above normal

79

Activity is running above the recent historical baseline.

Baseline: 22 completed sessions

Volume rank59th
Volume/OI rank77th
IV rank100th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close1.35
1W-3.6%
RS-44.0
Fair value-33.4%
Options pressure-25
Speculation8
Volatility96
Trend fit83

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 81.5% elevated
30d avg 76.8% · 10 sessions 80th
90d avg - · 22/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 22/60 sessions -
IV 10.91 elevated
30d avg 3.12 · 10 sessions 100th
90d avg - · 22/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 22/60 sessions -
Put-call 2.00 elevated
30d avg 0.33 · 10 sessions 90th
90d avg - · 22/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 22/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.01 near normal
30d avg 0.01 · 10 sessions 70th
90d avg - · 22/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 22/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:21 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 133.3%
30 Jul 11:09 Mixed
Pressure 11
Move 107.5%
30 Jul 14:43 Mixed
Pressure -1
Move 103.6%
30 Jul 15:12 Mixed
Pressure -3
Move 103.6%
31 Jul 03:30 Mixed
Pressure 7
Move 103.6%
31 Jul 05:43 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 103.6%
31 Jul 17:30 Mixed
Pressure 5
Move 99.6%
2 Aug 17:58 Volatility
Pressure -53
Move 96.5%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 44
Puts · V 4 · OI 4
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts3
Avg IV10.91
Put-call4.00
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts5
Avg IV2.32
Put-call1.40
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts5
Avg IV1.88
Put-call2.20

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
18 Sep 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV4.75
Put IV-
Skew-
20 Nov 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV1.22
Put IV-
Skew-
19 Feb 2027Incomplete skew
Call IV1.16
Put IV-
Skew-

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractNMG260918C00005000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike5.00
Volume-
OI1
IV15.75
ContractNMG270219P00005000
SidePut
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike5.00
Volume10
OI10
IV3.14
ContractNMG260918P00002500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike2.50
Volume4
OI4
IV12.22
ContractNMG261120C00005000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike5.00
Volume3
OI197
IV2.76
ContractNMG261120P00005000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike5.00
Volume3
OI8
IV4.38
ContractNMG261120P00007500
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike7.50
Volume3
OI3
IV2.16
ContractNMG261120C00002500
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike2.50
Volume2
OI1633
IV1.22
ContractNMG270219C00007500
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike7.50
Volume2
OI64
IV1.53

Evidence context