Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
FRVO options intelligence
Fervo Energy Company Class A common stock options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
41
Market data through 14 Aug 2026
Checked 17 Aug 2026 11:21 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
FRVO currently carries bullish options pressure with a 41/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 10.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.05.
Expected move
10.9%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.05
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.71
Call-side skew
Trend fit
77
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-23.6%
Sharemaestro weekly context
Expected move
10.9%
Put-call volume
0.71
Volume / OI
0.05
Reference IV
1.12
Max pain
22.50
Underlying
19.76
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
190
Research Brief
FRVO has a bullish chain read with 41/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 17.61–21.91; The largest call open-interest concentration is 25.00; the largest put concentration is 20.00. The most active strike by current volume is 30.00.
Priced range17.61–21.91
Call concentration25.00
Put concentration20.00
Max pain reference22.50
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 17.61 to 21.91. Max pain at 22.50 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
17.6119.76 ± 2.1521.91
Confirmation level
A close beyond 21.91 or below 17.61 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 41/100
Pressure is 23/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure23 × 42%
+9.6
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation8 × 22%
+1.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement77 × 26%
+20.1
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 25.00; the largest put concentration is 20.00. The most active strike by current volume is 30.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
2.50-87.3%
0
0
5.00-74.7%
0
0
7.50-62.0%
0
1
10.00-49.4%
0
0
12.50-36.7%
1
84
15.00-24.1%
5
1219
17.50-11.4%
13
3082
20.001.2%
130
2284
22.5013.9%
390
244
25.0026.5%
2867
120
30.0051.8%
1171
42
35.0077.1%
317
0
40.00102.4%
743
0
45.00127.7%
26
0
50.00153.0%
764
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Balanced gamma proxy
Call- and put-side gamma sensitivity is broadly balanced across the retained chain. Individual strike concentrations may still matter more than the chain-wide net.
Net profile-$97,894Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak25.00+$159,077
Negative peak20.00-$178,584
Nearest balance23.42Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
5.00-74.7%
+$32
7.50-62.0%
-$1
10.00-49.4%
+$1
12.50-36.7%
-$388
15.00-24.1%
-$3,447
17.50-11.4%
-$46,476
20.001.2%
-$178,584
22.5013.9%
-$92,773
25.0026.5%
+$159,077
30.0051.8%
+$25,107
35.0077.1%
+$5,438
40.00102.4%
+$5,779
45.00127.7%
+$463
50.00153.0%
+$1,967
55.00178.3%
+$4,464
60.00203.6%
+$21,445
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
1.12
21 Aug
7d
1.07
18 Sep
35d
0.98
18 Dec
126d
0.95
15 Jan
154d
0.94
19 Mar
217d
0.93
16 Apr
245d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
18
20
23
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 14 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 190 / 190
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Put-heavy activity
Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.
Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.
Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $355,060 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · atm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+23
1W price-23.6%
Call premium35%
Put premium65%
Notional split
C 35% / P 65%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.05
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
77/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 91+ days · ATM
puts cluster with 264 contracts traded, $120,530 estimated gross traded notional, and 34% of visible notional.
$120,530
Puts · 22-45 days · ATM
puts cluster with 396 contracts traded, $85,140 estimated gross traded notional, and 24% of visible notional.
$85,140
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 317 contracts traded, $80,052 estimated gross traded notional, and 23% of visible notional.
$80,052
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
calls cluster with 229 contracts traded, $14,480 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$14,480
Calls · 0-7 days · OTM
calls cluster with 544 contracts traded, $12,535 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$12,535
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Normal range
Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.
Baseline: 13 completed sessions
Volume rank54th
Volume/OI rank46th
IV rank31th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close19.76
1W-23.6%
RS-
Fair value-35.3%
Options pressure23
Speculation8
Volatility96
Trend fit77
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 21.9% · 13 sessions
0th
90d avg - · 13/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 13/60 sessions
-
30d avg 1.18 · 13 sessions
31th
90d avg - · 13/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 13/60 sessions
-
30d avg 1.18 · 13 sessions
62th
90d avg - · 13/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 13/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.11 · 13 sessions
46th
90d avg - · 13/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 13/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:26
Mixed
Pressure 14
Move 25.9%
30 Jul 10:22
Volatility
Pressure 65
Move 33.0%
30 Jul 17:30
Volatility
Pressure 56
Move 27.6%
31 Jul 06:51
Volatility
Pressure 92
Move 27.3%
1 Aug 08:59
Volatility
Pressure 0
Move 23.2%
3 Aug 11:28
Volatility
Pressure 0
Move 19.7%
3 Aug 17:05
Volatility
Pressure 87
Move 22.3%
3 Aug 23:26
Volatility
Pressure 83
Move 22.4%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike2.50
Calls · V 4 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike12.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 5
Puts · V 0 · OI 84
Strike17.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 13
Puts · V 3 · OI 1219
Strike20.00
Calls · V 5 · OI 130
Puts · V 52 · OI 3082
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts30
Avg IV1.12
Put-call0.12
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV1.07
Put-call1.97
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.98
Put-call0.10
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts34
Avg IV0.95
Put-call5.63
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts24
Avg IV0.94
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.33
Put IV1.12
Skew-0.21
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.84
Put IV1.09
Skew0.24
18 Dec 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.04
Put IV0.96
Skew-0.08
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.94
Put IV0.94
Skew-
19 Mar 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.99
Put IV0.88
Skew-0.11
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractFRVO260918P00020000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike20.00
Volume396
OI457
IV0.84
ContractFRVO260821C00030000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike30.00
Volume261
OI1171
IV1.23
ContractFRVO270115P00020000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike20.00
Volume252
OI295
IV0.91
ContractFRVO260821C00022500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike22.50
Volume226
OI390
IV0.45
ContractFRVO260918C00025000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike25.00
Volume213
OI3387
IV0.84
ContractFRVO270416C00050000
SideCall
Expiry16 Apr 2027
Strike50.00
Volume101
OI143
IV0.95
ContractFRVO270416C00030000
SideCall
Expiry16 Apr 2027
Strike30.00
Volume60
OI66
IV0.96
ContractFRVO260918P00017500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike17.50
Volume58
OI152
IV1.09
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.