Ticker Options Intelligence

TVRD options intelligence

Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc. options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 29 Market data through 16 Sep 2026 Checked 17 Sep 2026 13:02 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

TVRD currently carries bullish options pressure with a 29/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 139.0%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.00.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 139.0%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.00

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.50

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -2.1%

RS -73.9

Expected move 139.0%
Put-call volume 0.50
Volume / OI 0.00
Reference IV 4.80
Max pain 2.50
Underlying 1.87
Nearest expiry 18 Sep 2026
Contracts 24

Research Brief

TVRD has a bullish chain read with 29/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 0.00–4.47; The largest call open-interest concentration is 5.00; the largest put concentration is 2.50. The most active strike by current volume is 2.50.

Priced range0.00–4.47
Call concentration5.00
Put concentration2.50
Max pain reference2.50
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 18 Sep

Options imply 0.00 to 4.47. Max pain at 2.50 sits inside that range, 33.7% above spot. The theoretical downside extends below zero, so the displayed lower bound is floored at 0.00.

Spot Max pain
0.001.87 ± 2.604.47
Confirmation level

A close beyond 4.47 or below 0.00 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 29/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 45/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure45 × 42%
+18.7

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation3 × 22%
+0.6

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score28.9Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 5.00; the largest put concentration is 2.50. The most active strike by current volume is 2.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
17
2.5033.7%
64
1
5.00167.4%
727
0
7.50301.1%
8
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Reported Greeks · 94% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$776Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak2.50+$565
Negative peak7.50-$3
Nearest balance7.47Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
2.5033.7%
+$565
5.00167.4%
+$214
7.50301.1%
-$3
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

3.31× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

4.80 18 Sep 2d
1.45 16 Oct 30d
2.55 18 Dec 93d
1.45 19 Mar 184d

Volatility by Strike

Smile incomplete

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.

Comparable strike volatility is unavailable.

Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

13 matured · 1 directional

Across 1 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 0% of the time.

Directional follow-through0%
Moves contained by pricing100%
Average expiry move7.0%
20 Aug Volatility · 52 -2.1% through expiry 114.5% priced · v2.0
17 Aug Volatility · 50 -2.1% through expiry 47.4% priced · v2.0
14 Aug Volatility · 50 -2.1% through expiry 46.1% priced · v2.0
13 Aug Volatility · 72 -0.5% through expiry 119.0% priced · v2.0
12 Aug Volatility · 55 -0.5% through expiry 119.0% priced · v2.0
11 Aug Volatility · 52 -0.5% through expiry 124.3% priced · v2.0
7 Aug Volatility · 53 -0.5% through expiry 62.8% priced · v2.0
6 Aug Volatility · 52 -11.4% through expiry 107.9% priced · v2.0
5 Aug Mixed · 26 -11.4% through expiry 47.1% priced · v2.0
4 Aug Bullish · 29 -11.4% through expiry 103.6% priced · v2.0
3 Aug Volatility · 53 -11.4% through expiry 115.5% priced · v2.0
31 Jul Volatility · 49 -11.4% through expiry 50.0% priced · v2.0

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
16 Sep 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
24 / 24
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

52/100
Primary intent Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow against weak price

Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.

Why this matters

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $218 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+45
1W price-2.1%
Call premium40%
Put premium60%
Notional split C 40% / P 60% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.00 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction. Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Conviction clusters Puts · 91+ days · ITM
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 1 contracts traded, $130 estimated gross traded notional, and 60% of visible notional.
$130
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $82 estimated gross traded notional, and 38% of visible notional.
$82
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $5 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$5

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Normal range

33

Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.

Baseline: 22 completed sessions

Volume rank5th
Volume/OI rank5th
IV rank91th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close1.87
1W-2.1%
RS-73.9
Fair value-89.2%
Options pressure45
Speculation3
Volatility96
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 139.0% history building
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 22/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 22/60 sessions -
IV 4.80 history building
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 22/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 22/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.50 history building
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 20/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 20/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.00 history building
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 22/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 22/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:49 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 56.0%
30 Jul 11:26 Volatility
Pressure -51
Move 39.8%
31 Jul 11:00 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 40.7%
2 Aug 18:38 Volatility
Pressure 96
Move 50.0%
3 Aug 09:33 Volatility
Pressure 94
Move 50.0%
4 Aug 07:17 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 115.5%
4 Aug 23:55 Bullish
Pressure 42
Move 103.6%
6 Aug 10:25 Mixed
Pressure -7
Move 47.1%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 64
Puts · V 0 · OI 17
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 727
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 8
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts6
Avg IV4.80
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts6
Avg IV1.45
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts6
Avg IV2.55
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts6
Avg IV1.45
Put-call1.00

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
18 Sep 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV3.04
Put IV-
Skew-
16 Oct 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV0.79
Put IV-
Skew-
18 Dec 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV1.29
Put IV-
Skew-
19 Mar 2027Incomplete skew
Call IV0.71
Put IV-
Skew-

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractTVRD270319C00002500
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike2.50
Volume1
OI1047
IV2.17
ContractTVRD270319P00002500
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike2.50
Volume1
OI43
IV1.61
ContractTVRD261016C00002500
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike2.50
Volume1
OI3
IV0.79
ContractTVRD260918C00005000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike5.00
Volume-
OI727
IV6.89
ContractTVRD261218C00002500
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike2.50
Volume-
OI187
IV2.58
ContractTVRD261218C00005000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike5.00
Volume-
OI122
IV6.68
ContractTVRD260918C00002500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike2.50
Volume-
OI64
IV3.04
ContractTVRD261218P00002500
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike2.50
Volume-
OI29
IV0.96

Research Graph

Related research and context

Ticker deep links

Related News

No recent ticker-specific news yet.

Market Watch

No recent market-watch posts yet.

Earnings

No upcoming matched earnings event.

Evidence context