Ticker Options Intelligence

FPS options intelligence

Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 51 Market data through 11 Aug 2026 Checked 12 Aug 2026 12:01 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

FPS currently carries volatility options pressure with a 51/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 10.1%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.08.

Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 10.1%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.08

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.50

Call-side skew

Trend fit 59

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +16.4%

Sharemaestro weekly context

Expected move 10.1%
Put-call volume 0.50
Volume / OI 0.08
Reference IV 0.83
Max pain 35.00
Underlying 38.71
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 264

Research Brief

FPS has a volatility chain read with 51/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 34.78–42.64; The largest call open-interest concentration is 35.00; the largest put concentration is 35.00. The most active strike by current volume is 45.00.

Priced range34.78–42.64
Call concentration35.00
Put concentration35.00
Max pain reference35.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 34.78 to 42.64. Max pain at 35.00 sits inside that range, 9.6% below spot.

Spot Max pain
34.7838.71 ± 3.9342.64
Confirmation level

A close beyond 42.64 or below 34.78 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 51/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 41/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure41 × 42%
+17.1

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation42 × 22%
+9.2

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement59 × 26%
+15.4

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score51.4Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 35.00; the largest put concentration is 35.00. The most active strike by current volume is 45.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
68
22.50-41.9%
32
283
25.00-35.4%
44
845
27.50-29.0%
349
1933
30.00-22.5%
543
157
32.50-16.0%
278
3296
35.00-9.6%
2995
315
37.50-3.1%
1711
2134
40.003.3%
2992
17
42.509.8%
2353
479
45.0016.2%
1114
0
47.5022.7%
157
303
50.0029.2%
2683
288
55.0042.1%
1031
8
60.0055.0%
1694
11
65.0067.9%
143
0
70.0080.8%
975
0
75.0093.7%
1096
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Reported Greeks · 98% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$903,577Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak42.50+$201,318
Negative peak35.00-$17,153
Nearest balance35.24Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
15.00-61.3%
+$131
17.50-54.8%
+$923
20.00-48.3%
+$12,552
22.50-41.9%
+$39
25.00-35.4%
+$11,535
27.50-29.0%
-$877
30.00-22.5%
+$41,235
32.50-16.0%
+$7,378
35.00-9.6%
-$17,153
37.50-3.1%
+$161,073
40.003.3%
+$155,016
42.509.8%
+$201,318
45.0016.2%
+$80,371
47.5022.7%
+$7,606
50.0029.2%
+$107,164
55.0042.1%
+$16,700
60.0055.0%
+$47,617
65.0067.9%
+$11,354
70.0080.8%
+$32,526
75.0093.7%
+$7,967
80.00106.7%
+$7,093
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Balanced volatility curve

1.00× front/back

Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.

0.83 21 Aug 10d
0.86 18 Sep 38d
0.86 20 Nov 101d
0.85 15 Jan 157d
0.82 19 Feb 192d
0.83 21 Jan 528d

Volatility by Strike

Upside optionality premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.

33
35
38
40
43
45
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 matured · 0 directional

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
11 Aug 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
264 / 264
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

89/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $839,704 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 22-45 days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+41
1W price+16.4%
Call premium56%
Put premium44%
Notional split C 56% / P 44% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.08 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 59/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 2 Sep Matched earnings event is 20 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM calls cluster with 1799 contracts traded, $338,745 estimated gross traded notional, and 40% of visible notional.
$338,745
Puts · 22-45 days · OTM puts cluster with 1136 contracts traded, $205,692 estimated gross traded notional, and 24% of visible notional.
$205,692
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 57 contracts traded, $64,620 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$64,620
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 88 contracts traded, $60,942 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$60,942
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM puts cluster with 67 contracts traded, $48,485 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$48,485

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Normal range

27

Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.

Baseline: 10 completed sessions

Volume rank40th
Volume/OI rank40th
IV rank0th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close38.71
1W+16.4%
RS-
Fair value-4.6%
Options pressure41
Speculation42
Volatility96
Trend fit59

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 10.1% muted
30d avg 19.2% · 10 sessions 0th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
IV 0.83 muted
30d avg 0.97 · 10 sessions 0th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.50 near normal
30d avg 1.06 · 10 sessions 60th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.08 near normal
30d avg 0.13 · 10 sessions 40th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:22 Volatility
Pressure 55
Move 20.2%
30 Jul 10:19 Volatility
Pressure 77
Move 21.0%
31 Jul 12:16 Volatility
Pressure 63
Move 19.3%
2 Aug 08:15 Volatility
Pressure 77
Move 18.6%
2 Aug 08:35 Volatility
Pressure 45
Move 18.6%
4 Aug 10:04 Volatility
Pressure 66
Move 17.9%
5 Aug 10:12 Volatility
Pressure 57
Move 26.8%
6 Aug 10:12 Volatility
Pressure 1
Move 23.4%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 8
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 12
Puts · V 0 · OI 74
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 26
Puts · V 0 · OI 33
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 32
Puts · V 0 · OI 68
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 44
Puts · V 0 · OI 283
Strike27.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 349
Puts · V 2 · OI 845
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 543
Puts · V 5 · OI 1933
Strike32.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 278
Puts · V 26 · OI 157

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts48
Avg IV0.83
Put-call0.28
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.86
Put-call0.63
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts48
Avg IV0.86
Put-call4.81
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts48
Avg IV0.85
Put-call0.51
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts48
Avg IV0.82
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.87
Put IV0.86
Skew-0.01
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.86
Put IV0.87
Skew0.01
20 Nov 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.93
Put IV0.85
Skew-0.08
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.83
Put IV0.85
Skew0.02
19 Feb 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.81
Put IV0.79
Skew-0.02

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractFPS260821C00045000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike45.00
Volume1362
OI1114
IV0.85
ContractFPS260918C00050000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike50.00
Volume1125
OI186
IV0.88
ContractFPS260918P00032500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike32.50
Volume1121
OI47
IV0.87
ContractFPS260918C00040000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike40.00
Volume565
OI1275
IV0.89
ContractFPS260821P00035000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike35.00
Volume307
OI3296
IV0.86
ContractFPS260918C00045000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike45.00
Volume64
OI297
IV0.88
ContractFPS260821P00045000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike45.00
Volume56
OI479
IV0.01
ContractFPS261120P00045000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike45.00
Volume50
OI282
IV0.81

Evidence context