Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
TXN options intelligence
Texas Instruments Incorporated options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
41
Market data through 12 Aug 2026
Checked 12 Aug 2026 21:38 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
TXN currently carries mixed options pressure with a 41/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 3.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.07.
Expected move
3.5%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.07
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.80
Balanced tape
Trend fit
85
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+3.7%
RS 15.7
Expected move
3.5%
Put-call volume
0.80
Volume / OI
0.07
Reference IV
0.47
Max pain
275.00
Underlying
286.08
Nearest expiry
14 Aug 2026
Contracts
1365
Research Brief
TXN has a mixed chain read with 41/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 276.20–295.96; The largest call open-interest concentration is 292.50; the largest put concentration is 215.00. The most active strike by current volume is 215.00.
Priced range276.20–295.96
Call concentration292.50
Put concentration215.00
Max pain reference275.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 276.20 to 295.96. Max pain at 275.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
276.20286.08 ± 9.88295.96
Confirmation level
A close beyond 295.96 or below 276.20 at the 14 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 41/100
Pressure is 13/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure13 × 42%
+5.3
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation42 × 22%
+9.1
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement85 × 26%
+22.1
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility47 × 10%
+4.7
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 292.50; the largest put concentration is 215.00. The most active strike by current volume is 215.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
328
190.00-33.6%
2
382
195.00-31.8%
2
329
210.00-26.6%
2
600
212.50-25.7%
0
7169
215.00-24.8%
0
383
240.00-16.1%
29
171
247.50-13.5%
0
375
270.00-5.6%
126
10
290.001.4%
338
17
292.502.2%
1407
13
295.003.1%
281
35
300.004.9%
1273
9
305.006.6%
352
0
345.0020.6%
740
0
350.0022.3%
191
0
370.0029.3%
471
0
385.0034.6%
250
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$33.1MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak300.00+$9.2M
Negative peak260.00-$2.9M
Nearest balance282.50Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
260.00-9.1%
-$2.9M
262.50-8.2%
-$26,509
265.00-7.4%
-$861,189
267.50-6.5%
-$29,434
270.00-5.6%
-$1.2M
272.50-4.7%
-$359,088
275.00-3.9%
-$1.2M
277.50-3.0%
-$230,408
280.00-2.1%
-$2.8M
282.50-1.3%
+$118
285.00-0.4%
+$7.7M
287.500.5%
+$112,275
290.001.4%
+$193,131
292.502.2%
+$3.8M
295.003.1%
+$2.4M
297.504.0%
+$235,365
300.004.9%
+$9.2M
302.505.7%
+$235,003
305.006.6%
+$1.4M
307.507.5%
+$32,168
310.008.4%
+$2.9M
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.47
14 Aug
2d
0.42
21 Aug
9d
0.43
28 Aug
16d
0.43
4 Sep
23d
0.42
11 Sep
30d
0.41
18 Sep
37d
0.43
25 Sep
44d
0.43
16 Oct
65d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
230
235
240
245
253
258
263
268
273
278
285
290
295
300
305
310
315
323
328
333
340
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 5 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 60% of the time.
Directional follow-through60%
Moves contained by pricing67%
Average expiry move3.4%
6 Aug
Bearish · 46
3.7% through expiry
2.5% priced · v2.0
5 Aug
Mixed · 43
3.7% through expiry
3.6% priced · v2.0
4 Aug
Bullish · 44
3.7% through expiry
5.3% priced · v2.0
3 Aug
Bullish · 46
3.7% through expiry
5.3% priced · v2.0
31 Jul
Bullish · 47
3.7% through expiry
5.8% priced · v2.0
30 Jul
Bullish · 45
-1.4% through expiry
2.7% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 12 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 1365 / 1365
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $54.8M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+13
1W price+3.7%
Call premium75%
Put premium25%
Notional split
C 75% / P 25%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.07
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
85/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 2416 contracts traded, $22.2M estimated gross traded notional, and 40% of visible notional.
$22.2M
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM
calls cluster with 639 contracts traded, $7.5M estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$7.5M
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 761 contracts traded, $6.4M estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$6.4M
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 593 contracts traded, $4.8M estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$4.8M
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 2434 contracts traded, $4.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$4.1M
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
Activity Anomaly
Quiet tape
Activity is muted versus this ticker's stored history.
Baseline: 11 completed sessions
Volume rank27th
Volume/OI rank27th
IV rank18th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close286.08
1W+3.7%
RS15.7
Fair value+52.1%
Options pressure13
Speculation42
Volatility47
Trend fit85
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 4.3% · 11 sessions
18th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.55 · 11 sessions
18th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.84 · 11 sessions
73th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.09 · 11 sessions
27th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
4 Aug 22:17
Bullish
Pressure 22
Move 5.3%
5 Aug 14:10
Bullish
Pressure 20
Move 5.2%
5 Aug 15:40
Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 3.8%
5 Aug 17:00
Mixed
Pressure 17
Move 4.1%
5 Aug 18:30
Mixed
Pressure 14
Move 3.9%
5 Aug 19:50
Mixed
Pressure 15
Move 3.8%
6 Aug 00:06
Mixed
Pressure 15
Move 3.6%
6 Aug 15:50
Bullish
Pressure 23
Move 3.9%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike160.00
Calls · V 16 · OI 5
Puts · V 2 · OI 159
Strike165.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 4
Puts · V 20 · OI 200
Strike170.00
Calls · V 8 · OI 2
Puts · V 8 · OI 303
Strike175.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 77 · OI 200
Strike180.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 187
Strike185.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 5 · OI 260
Strike190.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 2
Puts · V 2 · OI 328
Strike195.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 2
Puts · V 10 · OI 382
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts123
Avg IV0.47
Put-call1.20
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts144
Avg IV0.42
Put-call0.83
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts83
Avg IV0.43
Put-call0.51
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts77
Avg IV0.43
Put-call0.57
Expiry11 Sep 2026
Contracts60
Avg IV0.42
Put-call1.61
Skew
Call/put IV balance
14 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.52
Put IV0.37
Skew-0.15
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.42
Put IV0.40
Skew-0.02
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.42
Put IV0.43
Skew0.00
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.44
Put IV0.41
Skew-0.03
11 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.42
Put IV0.41
Skew-0.01
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractTXN260911C00305000
SideCall
Expiry11 Sep 2026
Strike305.00
Volume-
OI180
IV0.42
ContractTXN260904C00270000
SideCall
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Strike270.00
Volume-
OI50
IV0.46
ContractTXN260911P00290000
SidePut
Expiry11 Sep 2026
Strike290.00
Volume-
OI26
IV0.41
ContractTXN260918C00205000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike205.00
Volume-
OI13
IV0.62
ContractTXN260814C00235000
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike235.00
Volume-
OI12
IV1.06
ContractTXN270617C00175000
SideCall
Expiry17 Jun 2027
Strike175.00
Volume-
OI12
IV0.83
ContractTXN270617C00155000
SideCall
Expiry17 Jun 2027
Strike155.00
Volume-
OI11
IV0.89
ContractTXN260828C00230000
SideCall
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike230.00
Volume-
OI11
IV0.58
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.