Ticker Options Intelligence

CYPH options intelligence

Cypherpunk Technologies Inc. options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 37 Market data through 16 Sep 2026 Checked 16 Sep 2026 23:43 · partial chain

Options-market disagreement

Mixed pressure

CYPH currently carries mixed options pressure with a 37/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 13.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.17.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Mixed

Options-market disagreement

Expected move 13.2%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.17

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 1.66

Put-side skew

Trend fit 41

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -6.4%

RS 115.5

Expected move 13.2%
Put-call volume 1.66
Volume / OI 0.17
Reference IV 4.05
Max pain 2.00
Underlying 2.27
Nearest expiry 18 Sep 2026
Contracts 51

Research Brief

CYPH has a mixed chain read with 37/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 1.97–2.56; The largest call open-interest concentration is 2.50; the largest put concentration is 2.00. The most active strike by current volume is 2.50.

Priced range1.97–2.56
Call concentration2.50
Put concentration2.00
Max pain reference2.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 18 Sep

Options imply 1.97 to 2.56. Max pain at 2.00 sits inside that range, 11.7% below spot.

Spot Max pain
1.972.27 ± 0.302.56
Confirmation level

A close beyond 2.56 or below 1.97 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 37/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 17/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure17 × 42%
+7.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation44 × 22%
+9.6

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement41 × 26%
+10.6

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score36.8Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 2.50; the largest put concentration is 2.00. The most active strike by current volume is 2.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
489
0.50-77.9%
758
1064
1.00-55.8%
1317
3552
1.50-33.8%
1276
4273
2.00-11.7%
4395
469
2.5010.4%
6050
0
5.00120.8%
3362
0
7.50231.1%
5032
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Model-estimated Greeks · 100% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$77,108Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak2.50+$38,607
Negative peak1.00-$2,371
Nearest balance1.44Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
0.50-77.9%
+$124
1.00-55.8%
-$2,371
1.50-33.8%
+$298
2.00-11.7%
+$6,975
2.5010.4%
+$38,607
5.00120.8%
+$20,115
7.50231.1%
+$13,360
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

2.52× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

4.05 18 Sep 2d
1.98 16 Oct 30d
1.74 18 Dec 93d
1.61 19 Mar 184d

Volatility by Strike

Upside optionality premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.

2
3
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

13 matured · 3 directional

Across 3 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 100% of the time.

Directional follow-through100%
Moves contained by pricing0%
Average expiry move124.4%
20 Aug Bullish · 39 120.5% through expiry 114.9% priced · v2.0
19 Aug Volatility · 63 120.5% through expiry 29.4% priced · v2.0
14 Aug Volatility · 52 120.5% through expiry 50.1% priced · v2.0
13 Aug Bullish · 35 106.2% through expiry 38.9% priced · v2.0
12 Aug Volatility · 54 106.2% through expiry 41.5% priced · v2.0
10 Aug Volatility · 53 106.2% through expiry 25.0% priced · v2.0
7 Aug Volatility · 53 106.2% through expiry 43.1% priced · v2.0
6 Aug Volatility · 54 140.4% through expiry 38.1% priced · v2.0
5 Aug Volatility · 52 140.4% through expiry 41.0% priced · v2.0
4 Aug Volatility · 56 140.4% through expiry 78.7% priced · v2.0
3 Aug Volatility · 52 140.4% through expiry 63.5% priced · v2.0
31 Jul Volatility · 53 140.4% through expiry 34.5% priced · v2.0

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest98%
Chain status
Retained chain subset
Market date
16 Sep 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
51 / 51
  • 100% of provider contracts were retained for this snapshot.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Put-heavy activity

66/100
Primary intent Put-heavy activity

Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.

Flow vs price divergence No clean flow/price divergence

The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.

Why this matters

Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $1.3M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-17
1W price-6.4%
Call premium29%
Put premium71%
Notional split C 29% / P 71% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.17 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 41/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 91+ days · ITM
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 11339 contracts traded, $925,265 estimated gross traded notional, and 69% of visible notional.
$925,265
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 3590 contracts traded, $208,490 estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$208,490
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 719 contracts traded, $102,152 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$102,152
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM calls cluster with 518 contracts traded, $29,228 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$29,228
Calls · 0-7 days · OTM calls cluster with 1310 contracts traded, $18,768 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$18,768

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

High anomaly

94

Current options activity is unusually hot versus this ticker's stored history.

Baseline: 24 completed sessions

Volume rank100th
Volume/OI rank88th
IV rank96th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close2.26
1W-6.4%
RS115.5
Fair value+42.9%
Options pressure-17
Speculation44
Volatility96
Trend fit41

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 13.2% muted
30d avg 38.3% · 11 sessions 0th
90d avg - · 24/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 24/60 sessions -
IV 4.05 elevated
30d avg 2.61 · 11 sessions 91th
90d avg - · 24/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 24/60 sessions -
Put-call 1.66 elevated
30d avg 0.22 · 11 sessions 100th
90d avg - · 24/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 24/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.17 near normal
30d avg 0.15 · 11 sessions 73th
90d avg - · 24/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 24/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:44 Volatility
Pressure -51
Move 41.1%
30 Jul 11:23 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 43.3%
30 Jul 23:04 Bullish
Pressure 35
Move 53.1%
2 Aug 18:16 Bullish
Pressure 48
Move 47.4%
2 Aug 21:36 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 34.5%
4 Aug 02:41 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 63.5%
5 Aug 10:36 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 78.7%
6 Aug 10:51 Volatility
Pressure 98
Move 41.0%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike0.50
Calls · V 9 · OI 758
Puts · V 1 · OI 489
Strike1.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 1317
Puts · V 1 · OI 1064
Strike1.50
Calls · V 147 · OI 1276
Puts · V 10 · OI 3552
Strike2.00
Calls · V 360 · OI 4395
Puts · V 9 · OI 4273
Strike2.50
Calls · V 1240 · OI 6050
Puts · V 320 · OI 469
Strike5.00
Calls · V 28 · OI 3362
Puts · V 1 · OI 0
Strike7.50
Calls · V 42 · OI 5032
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts14
Avg IV4.05
Put-call0.19
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts12
Avg IV1.98
Put-call0.24
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts12
Avg IV1.74
Put-call4.22
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts13
Avg IV1.61
Put-call0.08

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.99
Put IV1.94
Skew-0.05
16 Oct 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.69
Put IV1.49
Skew-0.20
18 Dec 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.55
Put IV1.41
Skew-0.13
19 Mar 2027Balanced skew
Call IV1.46
Put IV1.46
Skew-

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractCYPH260918P00007500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike7.50
Volume-
OI-
IV10.78
ContractCYPH261016P00005000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike5.00
Volume-
OI7
IV1.31
ContractCYPH261218P00002500
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike2.50
Volume11263
OI5
IV1.58
ContractCYPH261218C00005000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike5.00
Volume1637
OI6465
IV1.76
ContractCYPH260918C00002500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike2.50
Volume1240
OI6050
IV1.99
ContractCYPH270319C00002500
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike2.50
Volume912
OI3280
IV1.46
ContractCYPH261218C00002500
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike2.50
Volume698
OI4123
IV1.55
ContractCYPH261016C00005000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike5.00
Volume687
OI14752
IV1.83

Evidence context