Ticker Options Intelligence

GPK options intelligence

Graphic Packaging Holding Company options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 51 Market data through 12 Aug 2026 Checked 13 Aug 2026 14:21 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

GPK currently carries volatility options pressure with a 51/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 8.1%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.00.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 8.1%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.00

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.04

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +12.8%

RS -22.2

Expected move 8.1%
Put-call volume 0.04
Volume / OI 0.00
Reference IV 0.58
Max pain 10.00
Underlying 12.10
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 94

Research Brief

GPK has a volatility chain read with 51/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 11.12–13.08; The largest call open-interest concentration is 12.50; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 2.50.

Priced range11.12–13.08
Call concentration12.50
Put concentration10.00
Max pain reference10.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 11.12 to 13.08. Max pain at 10.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
11.1212.10 ± 0.9813.08
Confirmation level

A close beyond 13.08 or below 11.12 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 51/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation8 × 22%
+1.8

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility73 × 10%
+7.3

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score51.1Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 12.50; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 2.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
12
2.50-79.3%
19
3
5.00-58.7%
0
130
7.50-38.0%
0
319
10.00-17.4%
57
8
12.503.3%
1687
0
15.0024.0%
2
0
17.5044.6%
0
0
20.0065.3%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Reported Greeks · 95% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$414,537Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak12.50+$300,940
Negative peak7.50-$1,389
Nearest balance10.01Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
2.50-79.3%
+$11
5.00-58.7%
+$1,926
7.50-38.0%
-$1,389
10.00-17.4%
-$1,005
12.503.3%
+$300,940
15.0024.0%
+$28,422
17.5044.6%
+$85,501
20.0065.3%
+$113
25.00106.6%
+$18
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.21× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.58 21 Aug 9d
0.69 18 Sep 37d
0.51 18 Dec 128d
0.55 15 Jan 156d
0.48 19 Mar 219d

Volatility by Strike

Balanced wings

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.

10
13
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 matured · 0 directional

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
12 Aug 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
94 / 94
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Volatility expansion bet

87/100
Primary intent Volatility expansion bet

The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $10,925 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 22-45 days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+100
1W price+12.8%
Call premium94%
Put premium6%
Notional split C 94% / P 6% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.00 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM calls cluster with 122 contracts traded, $4,880 estimated gross traded notional, and 45% of visible notional.
$4,880
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 17 contracts traded, $4,148 estimated gross traded notional, and 38% of visible notional.
$4,148
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 12 contracts traded, $1,198 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$1,198
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 5 contracts traded, $562 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$562
Puts · 22-45 days · ITM puts cluster with 1 contracts traded, $138 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$138

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Normal range

47

Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.

Baseline: 10 completed sessions

Volume rank50th
Volume/OI rank50th
IV rank40th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close12.10
1W+12.8%
RS-22.2
Fair value-42.1%
Options pressure100
Speculation8
Volatility73
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 8.1% muted
30d avg 14.7% · 10 sessions 10th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
IV 0.58 near normal
30d avg 0.80 · 10 sessions 40th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.04 muted
30d avg 0.85 · 10 sessions 10th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.00 near normal
30d avg 0.14 · 10 sessions 50th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:53 Volatility
Pressure 88
Move 17.7%
30 Jul 10:43 Volatility
Pressure -56
Move 13.4%
31 Jul 10:30 Bullish
Pressure 70
Move 12.7%
31 Jul 15:15 Volatility
Pressure -21
Move 12.9%
31 Jul 16:34 Volatility
Pressure -23
Move 12.9%
31 Jul 19:35 Volatility
Pressure -23
Move 12.7%
31 Jul 22:58 Volatility
Pressure -21
Move 16.8%
1 Aug 06:36 Volatility
Pressure 89
Move 16.8%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 19
Puts · V 0 · OI 12
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 130
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 57
Puts · V 0 · OI 319
Strike12.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1687
Puts · V 0 · OI 8
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.58
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts22
Avg IV0.69
Put-call0.01
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.51
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts20
Avg IV0.55
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts16
Avg IV0.48
Put-call2.50

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.52
Put IV0.53
Skew0.01
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.47
Put IV0.53
Skew0.06
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.46
Put IV0.63
Skew0.17
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.44
Put IV0.62
Skew0.18
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.51
Put IV0.59
Skew0.08

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractGPK260918C00012500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike12.50
Volume122
OI1814
IV0.47
ContractGPK261218C00012500
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike12.50
Volume10
OI154
IV0.46
ContractGPK261218C00010000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike10.00
Volume10
OI56
IV0.50
ContractGPK270115C00010000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike10.00
Volume6
OI1092
IV0.48
ContractGPK270319P00010000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike10.00
Volume5
OI40
IV0.59
ContractGPK270115C00012500
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike12.50
Volume1
OI10145
IV0.44
ContractGPK260918P00012500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike12.50
Volume1
OI345
IV0.62
ContractGPK270319C00010000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike10.00
Volume1
OI1
IV0.54

Evidence context