Ticker Options Intelligence

HWM options intelligence

Howmet Aerospace Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 42 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 22:39 · complete available chain

Options-market disagreement

Mixed pressure

HWM currently carries mixed options pressure with a 42/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 2.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.20.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Mixed

Options-market disagreement

Expected move 2.5%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.20

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.82

Balanced tape

Trend fit 87

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop -2.4%

RS 15.3

Expected move 2.5%
Put-call volume 0.82
Volume / OI 0.20
Reference IV 0.45
Max pain 282.50
Underlying 289.26
Nearest expiry 31 Jul 2026
Contracts 642

Research Brief

HWM has a mixed chain read with 42/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 282.06–296.46; The largest call open-interest concentration is 290.00; the largest put concentration is 272.50. The most active strike by current volume is 290.00.

Priced range282.06–296.46
Call concentration290.00
Put concentration272.50
Max pain reference282.50
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 31 Jul

Options imply 282.06 to 296.46. Max pain at 282.50 sits inside that range, 2.3% below spot.

Spot Max pain
282.06289.26 ± 7.20296.46
Confirmation level

A close beyond 296.46 or below 282.06 at the 31 Jul expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 42/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 12/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure12 × 42%
+5.1

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation45 × 22%
+9.8

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement87 × 26%
+22.7

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility42 × 10%
+4.2

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score41.8Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 290.00; the largest put concentration is 272.50. The most active strike by current volume is 290.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
139
250.00-13.6%
6
46
260.00-10.1%
2
38
265.00-8.4%
2
63
267.50-7.5%
1
94
270.00-6.7%
34
550
272.50-5.8%
3
35
275.00-4.9%
39
62
277.50-4.1%
16
126
280.00-3.2%
75
71
282.50-2.3%
31
71
285.00-1.5%
34
4
287.50-0.6%
88
89
290.000.3%
202
0
295.002.0%
69
0
297.502.8%
27
0
300.003.7%
97
0
302.504.6%
17
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Balanced volatility curve

1.05× front/back

Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.

0.45 31 Jul 0d
0.59 7 Aug 7d
0.52 14 Aug 14d
0.49 21 Aug 21d
0.47 28 Aug 28d
0.52 4 Sep 35d
0.42 18 Sep 49d
0.41 16 Oct 77d

Volatility by Strike

Balanced wings

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.

235
240
248
250
255
258
260
265
268
273
275
278
283
285
290
293
295
300
303
310
315
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A99/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes99%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
642 / 642
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

68/100
Primary intent Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.

Flow vs price divergence No clean flow/price divergence

The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.

Why this matters

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $17.2M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+12
1W price-2.4%
Call premium74%
Put premium26%
Notional split C 74% / P 26% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.20 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 87/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 6 Aug Matched earnings event is 5 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction. Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · ITM
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 511 contracts traded, $6.2M estimated gross traded notional, and 36% of visible notional.
$6.2M
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 359 contracts traded, $3.2M estimated gross traded notional, and 19% of visible notional.
$3.2M
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 396 contracts traded, $2.5M estimated gross traded notional, and 15% of visible notional.
$2.5M
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 723 contracts traded, $2.3M estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$2.3M
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 1801 contracts traded, $1.6M estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$1.6M

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close282.26
1W-2.4%
RS15.3
Fair value+102.7%
Options pressure12
Speculation45
Volatility42
Trend fit87

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 2.5% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.45 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.82 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.20 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:02 Bearish
Pressure -62
Move 3.5%
30 Jul 01:00 Mixed
Pressure 15
Move 6.1%
30 Jul 14:55 Bearish
Pressure -26
Move 4.5%
31 Jul 10:18 Bullish
Pressure 37
Move 4.3%
31 Jul 21:39 Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 2.5%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike140.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike145.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike150.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike175.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike230.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 3
Strike235.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 4 · OI 10
Strike240.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 3
Puts · V 2 · OI 6
Strike245.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 4 · OI 13

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Contracts54
Avg IV0.45
Put-call0.39
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts48
Avg IV0.59
Put-call0.10
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts27
Avg IV0.52
Put-call0.44
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts54
Avg IV0.49
Put-call0.35
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts25
Avg IV0.47
Put-call2.32

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
31 Jul 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.15
Put IV0.65
Skew-0.50
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.59
Put IV0.60
Skew0.01
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.52
Put IV0.52
Skew0.00
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.51
Put IV0.46
Skew-0.05
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.46
Put IV0.48
Skew0.02

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractHWM260814C00260000
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike260.00
Volume-
OI-
IV0.56
ContractHWM270115P00310000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike310.00
Volume-
OI101
IV0.40
ContractHWM260821P00225000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike225.00
Volume-
OI57
IV0.54
ContractHWM280121P00310000
SidePut
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike310.00
Volume-
OI50
IV0.50
ContractHWM260821C00325000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike325.00
Volume-
OI43
IV0.48
ContractHWM261016C00175000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike175.00
Volume-
OI34
IV0.00
ContractHWM270617C00210000
SideCall
Expiry17 Jun 2027
Strike210.00
Volume-
OI31
IV0.51
ContractHWM260821C00272500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike272.50
Volume-
OI26
IV0.52