Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
LION options intelligence
Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
51
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 2 Aug 2026 04:17 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
LION currently carries volatility options pressure with a 51/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 12.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.00.
Expected move
12.2%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.00
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.00
Call-side skew
Trend fit
3
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-0.4%
RS 27.4
Expected move
12.2%
Put-call volume
-
Volume / OI
0.00
Reference IV
0.63
Max pain
14.00
Underlying
13.28
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
398
Research Brief
LION has a volatility chain read with 51/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 11.66–14.90; The largest call open-interest concentration is 14.00; the largest put concentration is 14.00. The most active strike by current volume is 15.00.
Priced range11.66–14.90
Call concentration14.00
Put concentration14.00
Max pain reference14.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 11.66 to 14.90. Max pain at 14.00 sits inside that range, 5.4% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
11.6613.28 ± 1.6214.90
Confirmation level
A close beyond 14.90 or below 11.66 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 51/100
Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation0 × 22%
+0.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement3 × 26%
+0.7
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility84 × 10%
+8.4
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 14.00; the largest put concentration is 14.00. The most active strike by current volume is 15.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
8.00-39.8%
1
10
9.00-32.2%
0
119
10.00-24.7%
25
106
11.00-17.2%
3
50
12.00-9.6%
1
311
13.00-2.1%
270
592
14.005.4%
7769
190
15.0013.0%
5567
66
16.0020.5%
288
588
17.0028.0%
211
0
18.0035.5%
131
0
19.0043.1%
0
0
20.0050.6%
31
1
21.0058.1%
0
0
22.0065.7%
0
0
23.0073.2%
0
1
25.0088.3%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.63
21 Aug
21d
0.62
18 Sep
49d
0.39
16 Oct
77d
0.53
20 Nov
112d
0.52
18 Dec
140d
0.63
15 Jan
168d
0.56
19 Mar
231d
0.38
21 Jan
539d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
11
12
13
14
15
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 398 / 398
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $2085 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+100
1W price-0.4%
Call premium100%
Put premium0%
Notional split
C 100% / P 0%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.00
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
3/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
6 Aug
Matched earnings event is 4 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 38 contracts traded, $1625 estimated gross traded notional, and 78% of visible notional.
$1625
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 4 contracts traded, $460 estimated gross traded notional, and 22% of visible notional.
$460
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close13.28
1W-0.4%
RS27.4
Fair value+46.6%
Options pressure100
Speculation0
Volatility84
Trend fit3
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:43
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 12.0%
30 Jul 10:40
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 9.0%
31 Jul 10:25
Mixed
Pressure 14
Move 11.4%
31 Jul 13:52
Volatility
Pressure 72
Move 12.6%
31 Jul 15:08
Volatility
Pressure 72
Move 11.8%
31 Jul 15:33
Volatility
Pressure 72
Move 11.8%
2 Aug 03:17
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 12.2%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike8.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike9.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 10
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 25
Puts · V 0 · OI 119
Strike11.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 106
Strike12.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 50
Strike13.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 270
Puts · V 0 · OI 311
Strike14.00
Calls · V 13 · OI 7769
Puts · V 0 · OI 592
Strike15.00
Calls · V 25 · OI 5567
Puts · V 0 · OI 190
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts38
Avg IV0.63
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts66
Avg IV0.62
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts56
Avg IV0.39
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts56
Avg IV0.53
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts62
Avg IV0.52
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.70
Put IV0.67
Skew-0.03
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.61
Put IV0.62
Skew0.01
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.06
Put IV0.04
Skew-0.02
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.10
Put IV0.67
Skew0.57
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.52
Put IV0.88
Skew0.36
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractLION260821C00015000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike15.00
Volume25
OI5567
IV0.70
ContractLION260821C00014000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike14.00
Volume13
OI7769
IV0.71
ContractLION270115C00015000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike15.00
Volume3
OI6295
IV0.54
ContractLION270115C00020000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike20.00
Volume1
OI4912
IV0.53
ContractLION261218C00017000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike17.00
Volume-
OI14117
IV0.52
ContractLION261218C00012000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike12.00
Volume-
OI12364
IV0.66
ContractLION260918P00012000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike12.00
Volume-
OI10103
IV0.62
ContractLION261120C00014000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike14.00
Volume-
OI7788
IV0.57
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
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Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.