Ticker Options Intelligence

ARCT options intelligence

Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 49 Market data through 28 Aug 2026 Checked 29 Aug 2026 14:21 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

ARCT currently carries volatility options pressure with a 49/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 18.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.08.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 18.6%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.08

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.64

Call-side skew

Trend fit 92

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop +12.9%

RS 42.5

Expected move 18.6%
Put-call volume 0.64
Volume / OI 0.08
Reference IV 1.04
Max pain 10.00
Underlying 15.19
Nearest expiry 18 Sep 2026
Contracts 84

Research Brief

ARCT has a volatility chain read with 49/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 12.36–18.02; The largest call open-interest concentration is 15.00; the largest put concentration is 7.50. The most active strike by current volume is 15.00.

Priced range12.36–18.02
Call concentration15.00
Put concentration7.50
Max pain reference10.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 18 Sep

Options imply 12.36 to 18.02. Max pain at 10.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
12.3615.19 ± 2.8318.02
Confirmation level

A close beyond 18.02 or below 12.36 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 49/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 31/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure31 × 42%
+12.8

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation10 × 22%
+2.2

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement92 × 26%
+23.9

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score48.5Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 15.00; the largest put concentration is 7.50. The most active strike by current volume is 15.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
2.50-83.5%
18
237
5.00-67.1%
7
364
7.50-50.6%
164
71
10.00-34.2%
267
131
12.50-17.7%
721
200
15.00-1.3%
1017
6
17.5015.2%
717
1
20.0031.7%
756
0
22.5048.1%
10
0
25.0064.6%
8
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Reported Greeks · 98% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$68,912Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak15.00+$24,061
Negative peak5.00-$204
Nearest balance5.75Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
2.50-83.5%
+$5
5.00-67.1%
-$204
7.50-50.6%
+$480
10.00-34.2%
+$2,702
12.50-17.7%
+$10,225
15.00-1.3%
+$24,061
17.5015.2%
+$17,249
20.0031.7%
+$13,740
22.5048.1%
+$76
25.0064.6%
+$579
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.16× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

1.04 18 Sep 21d
1.02 16 Oct 49d
0.93 18 Dec 112d
0.90 19 Mar 203d

Volatility by Strike

Upside optionality premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.

13
15
18
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

12 matured · 4 directional

Across 4 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 100% of the time.

Directional follow-through100%
Moves contained by pricing0%
Average expiry move109.6%
20 Aug Volatility · 52 63.4% through expiry 11.8% priced · v2.0
14 Aug Bullish · 40 63.4% through expiry 8.2% priced · v2.0
13 Aug Volatility · 52 81.5% through expiry 12.5% priced · v2.0
11 Aug Bullish · 36 81.5% through expiry 15.5% priced · v2.0
10 Aug Volatility · 56 81.5% through expiry 17.9% priced · v2.0
7 Aug Volatility · 65 133.5% through expiry 29.4% priced · v2.0
6 Aug Volatility · 53 133.5% through expiry 31.6% priced · v2.0
5 Aug Bullish · 41 133.5% through expiry 30.1% priced · v2.0
4 Aug Volatility · 53 133.5% through expiry 31.2% priced · v2.0
3 Aug Volatility · 46 133.5% through expiry 47.7% priced · v2.0
31 Jul Bullish · 44 133.5% through expiry 45.1% priced · v2.0
30 Jul Volatility · 52 143.2% through expiry 33.0% priced · v2.0

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A97/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
28 Aug 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
84 / 84
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Volatility expansion bet

92/100
Primary intent Volatility expansion bet

The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $78,945 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+31
1W price+12.9%
Call premium75%
Put premium25%
Notional split C 75% / P 25% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.08 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 92/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 65 contracts traded, $23,318 estimated gross traded notional, and 30% of visible notional.
$23,318
Puts · 8-21 days · ATM puts cluster with 116 contracts traded, $15,370 estimated gross traded notional, and 19% of visible notional.
$15,370
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 178 contracts traded, $10,710 estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$10,710
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 12 contracts traded, $7,815 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$7,815
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 33 contracts traded, $5,978 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$5,978

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Normal range

58

Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.

Baseline: 15 completed sessions

Volume rank80th
Volume/OI rank80th
IV rank13th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close15.19
1W+12.9%
RS42.5
Fair value-14.6%
Options pressure31
Speculation10
Volatility96
Trend fit92

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 18.6% near normal
30d avg 25.5% · 14 sessions 36th
90d avg - · 15/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 15/60 sessions -
IV 1.04 muted
30d avg 1.46 · 14 sessions 14th
90d avg - · 15/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 15/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.64 elevated
30d avg 0.34 · 14 sessions 93th
90d avg - · 15/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 15/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.08 near normal
30d avg 0.17 · 14 sessions 79th
90d avg - · 15/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 15/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:40 Volatility
Pressure 98
Move 25.8%
30 Jul 11:18 Volatility
Pressure 98
Move 21.7%
31 Jul 12:44 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 33.0%
31 Jul 14:17 Volatility
Pressure -40
Move 20.3%
1 Aug 02:01 Bullish
Pressure 77
Move 47.0%
2 Aug 08:17 Bullish
Pressure 77
Move 45.1%
4 Aug 10:21 Volatility
Pressure 85
Move 47.7%
5 Aug 10:53 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 31.2%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 18
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 7
Puts · V 0 · OI 237
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 164
Puts · V 0 · OI 364
Strike10.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 267
Puts · V 13 · OI 71
Strike12.50
Calls · V 59 · OI 721
Puts · V 84 · OI 131
Strike15.00
Calls · V 36 · OI 1017
Puts · V 116 · OI 200
Strike17.50
Calls · V 108 · OI 717
Puts · V 0 · OI 6
Strike20.00
Calls · V 70 · OI 756
Puts · V 1 · OI 1

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV1.04
Put-call0.77
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV1.02
Put-call0.40
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts22
Avg IV0.93
Put-call0.02
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts22
Avg IV0.90
Put-call0.13

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.20
Put IV0.97
Skew-0.22
16 Oct 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.00
Put IV0.93
Skew-0.07
18 Dec 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.04
Put IV0.88
Skew-0.16
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.91
Put IV1.06
Skew0.15

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractARCT260918P00015000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike15.00
Volume116
OI200
IV0.99
ContractARCT260918C00017500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike17.50
Volume108
OI717
IV1.02
ContractARCT260918P00012500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike12.50
Volume84
OI131
IV0.97
ContractARCT260918C00020000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike20.00
Volume70
OI756
IV1.20
ContractARCT260918C00012500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike12.50
Volume59
OI721
IV1.08
ContractARCT260918C00015000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike15.00
Volume36
OI1017
IV0.96
ContractARCT261218C00020000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike20.00
Volume32
OI165
IV0.95
ContractARCT260918P00010000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike10.00
Volume13
OI71
IV0.79

Evidence context