Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
XP options intelligence
Xp Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
34
Market data through 11 Aug 2026
Checked 12 Aug 2026 13:25 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
XP currently carries mixed options pressure with a 34/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 2.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.
Expected move
2.8%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.03
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.90
Balanced tape
Trend fit
52
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-4.8%
RS -20.2
Expected move
2.8%
Put-call volume
0.90
Volume / OI
0.03
Reference IV
0.48
Max pain
16.00
Underlying
16.24
Nearest expiry
14 Aug 2026
Contracts
588
Research Brief
XP has a mixed chain read with 34/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 15.79–16.69; The largest call open-interest concentration is 16.00; the largest put concentration is 16.00. The most active strike by current volume is 15.50.
Priced range15.79–16.69
Call concentration16.00
Put concentration16.00
Max pain reference16.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 15.79 to 16.69. Max pain at 16.00 sits inside that range, 1.5% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
15.7916.24 ± 0.4516.69
Confirmation level
A close beyond 16.69 or below 15.79 at the 14 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 34/100
Pressure is 16/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure16 × 42%
+6.8
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+8.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement52 × 26%
+13.6
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility45 × 10%
+4.5
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 16.00; the largest put concentration is 16.00. The most active strike by current volume is 15.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
5.00-69.2%
3
0
7.00-56.9%
5
0
11.00-32.3%
6
0
12.50-23.0%
5
3
13.50-16.9%
2
6
14.00-13.8%
2
4
14.50-10.7%
3
13
15.00-7.6%
0
33
15.50-4.6%
0
79
16.00-1.5%
393
7
16.501.6%
5
6
17.004.7%
28
4
17.507.8%
26
1
18.0010.8%
15
1
18.5013.9%
31
0
19.0017.0%
32
2
19.5020.1%
31
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$1.9MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak17.00+$751,209
Negative peak15.00-$89,735
Nearest balance16.50Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
11.00-32.3%
-$5,041
11.50-29.2%
+$49
12.00-26.1%
-$3,408
12.50-23.0%
+$58
13.00-20.0%
-$8,559
13.50-16.9%
-$144
14.00-13.8%
-$5,045
14.50-10.7%
-$340
15.00-7.6%
-$89,735
15.50-4.6%
-$10,285
16.00-1.5%
-$16,477
16.501.6%
-$132
17.004.7%
+$751,209
17.507.8%
+$2,314
18.0010.8%
+$32,272
18.5013.9%
+$507
19.0017.0%
+$18,855
19.5020.1%
+$329
20.0023.2%
+$700,163
20.5026.2%
-$15
21.0029.3%
+$12,046
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.48
14 Aug
3d
0.58
21 Aug
10d
0.49
28 Aug
17d
0.43
4 Sep
24d
0.19
11 Sep
31d
0.41
18 Sep
38d
0.18
25 Sep
45d
0.55
20 Nov
101d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
13
14
14
15
15
16
16
17
17
18
18
19
19
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 5 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 60% of the time.
Directional follow-through60%
Moves contained by pricing20%
Average expiry move4.3%
5 Aug
Bearish · 51
-4.8% through expiry
4.0% priced · v2.0
4 Aug
Bearish · 55
-4.8% through expiry
3.6% priced · v2.0
3 Aug
Bullish · 50
-4.8% through expiry
3.8% priced · v2.0
31 Jul
Bullish · 44
-4.8% through expiry
4.7% priced · v2.0
30 Jul
Bullish · 40
2.2% through expiry
2.3% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 11 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 588 / 588
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $806,214 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+16
1W price-4.8%
Call premium75%
Put premium25%
Notional split
C 75% / P 25%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.03
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
52/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
17 Aug
Matched earnings event is 4 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 693 contracts traded, $482,580 estimated gross traded notional, and 60% of visible notional.
$482,580
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 894 contracts traded, $109,395 estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$109,395
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 357 contracts traded, $52,635 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$52,635
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 1133 contracts traded, $44,268 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$44,268
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
calls cluster with 937 contracts traded, $37,238 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$37,238
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
9 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 9 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close16.24
1W-4.8%
RS-20.2
Fair value-9.8%
Options pressure16
Speculation41
Volatility45
Trend fit52
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 9/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 9/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 9/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 9/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 9/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 9/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 9/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 9/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:30
Mixed
Pressure -17
Move 6.6%
30 Jul 10:25
Mixed
Pressure 4
Move 8.5%
30 Jul 16:23
Bullish
Pressure 36
Move 3.3%
31 Jul 11:04
Bullish
Pressure 37
Move 3.0%
31 Jul 12:32
Bullish
Pressure 55
Move 2.3%
31 Jul 14:14
Bullish
Pressure 36
Move 6.7%
31 Jul 14:35
Bullish
Pressure 36
Move 6.1%
31 Jul 18:17
Bullish
Pressure 36
Move 6.1%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike5.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 3
Puts · V 1 · OI 0
Strike7.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 5
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike8.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike9.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 5
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike10.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike11.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 6
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike11.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 5
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike12.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts68
Avg IV0.48
Put-call2.06
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts70
Avg IV0.58
Put-call1.57
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts70
Avg IV0.49
Put-call-
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts62
Avg IV0.43
Put-call-
Expiry11 Sep 2026
Contracts62
Avg IV0.19
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
14 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.40
Put IV0.25
Skew-0.15
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.59
Put IV0.58
Skew-0.01
28 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.64
Put IV0.01
Skew-0.62
4 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.74
Put IV0.45
Skew-0.28
11 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.12
Put IV0.47
Skew0.35
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractXP260918C00017000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike17.00
Volume923
OI36
IV0.45
ContractXP280121C00010000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike10.00
Volume582
OI249
IV0.48
ContractXP280121P00008000
SidePut
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike8.00
Volume555
OI734
IV0.60
ContractXP260821P00015500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike15.50
Volume514
OI27
IV0.55
ContractXP260814P00015500
SidePut
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike15.50
Volume416
OI33
IV0.37
ContractXP260821P00015000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike15.00
Volume311
OI285
IV0.55
ContractXP260821P00014500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike14.50
Volume281
OI2
IV0.58
ContractXP260814C00016000
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike16.00
Volume252
OI393
IV0.59
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.