Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
LLY options intelligence
Eli Lilly and Company options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
43
Market data through 13 Aug 2026
Checked 13 Aug 2026 16:00 · partial chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
LLY currently carries mixed options pressure with a 43/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 3.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.11.
Expected move
3.3%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.11
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.17
Balanced tape
Trend fit
95
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+3.2%
RS 8.1
Expected move
3.3%
Put-call volume
1.17
Volume / OI
0.11
Reference IV
0.36
Max pain
1185.00
Underlying
1185.71
Nearest expiry
14 Aug 2026
Contracts
2000
Research Brief
LLY has a mixed chain read with 43/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 1146.59–1224.83; The largest call open-interest concentration is 1300.00; the largest put concentration is 720.00. The most active strike by current volume is 1250.00.
Priced range1146.59–1224.83
Call concentration1300.00
Put concentration720.00
Max pain reference1185.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 1146.59 to 1224.83. Max pain at 1185.00 sits inside that range, 0.1% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
1146.591185.71 ± 39.121224.83
Confirmation level
A close beyond 1224.83 or below 1146.59 at the 14 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 43/100
Pressure is 11/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure11 × 42%
+4.7
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation42 × 22%
+9.3
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement95 × 26%
+24.6
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility39 × 10%
+3.9
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 1300.00; the largest put concentration is 720.00. The most active strike by current volume is 1250.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1151
700.00-41.0%
0
1465
710.00-40.1%
0
1617
720.00-39.3%
1
1376
730.00-38.4%
0
1137
740.00-37.6%
0
1104
970.00-18.2%
2
1036
990.00-16.5%
2
696
995.00-16.1%
0
641
1020.00-14.0%
13
294
1035.00-12.7%
1
420
1180.00-0.5%
152
249
1200.001.2%
252
116
1220.002.9%
458
25
1250.005.4%
1733
10
1300.009.6%
2378
0
1405.0018.5%
253
0
1500.0026.5%
598
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Balanced gamma proxy
Call- and put-side gamma sensitivity is broadly balanced across the retained chain. Individual strike concentrations may still matter more than the chain-wide net.
Net profile+$51.8MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak1200.00+$25.8M
Negative peak1140.00-$7.8M
Nearest balance1188.69Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
1157.50-2.4%
-$180,735
1160.00-2.2%
-$1.9M
1162.50-2.0%
-$931,880
1165.00-1.7%
-$4.6M
1167.50-1.5%
-$735,671
1170.00-1.3%
-$3.5M
1172.50-1.1%
-$456,180
1175.00-0.9%
-$2.9M
1177.50-0.7%
-$589,447
1180.00-0.5%
-$7.6M
1185.00-0.1%
-$3.5M
1190.000.4%
+$1.3M
1192.500.6%
+$207,094
1195.000.8%
+$763,170
1200.001.2%
+$25.8M
1202.501.4%
+$1.2M
1205.001.6%
+$1.2M
1207.501.8%
+$42,826
1210.002.0%
+$286,127
1212.502.3%
+$111,210
1215.002.5%
-$706,454
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.36
14 Aug
1d
0.34
21 Aug
8d
0.33
28 Aug
15d
0.34
4 Sep
22d
0.33
11 Sep
29d
0.33
18 Sep
36d
0.35
25 Sep
43d
0.35
16 Oct
64d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
950
975
1005
1030
1060
1085
1110
1140
1155
1170
1185
1203
1218
1230
1260
1285
1310
1340
1365
1395
1420
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 2 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 100% of the time.
Directional follow-through100%
Moves contained by pricing83%
Average expiry move3.3%
6 Aug
Bullish · 45
3.2% through expiry
3.9% priced · v2.0
5 Aug
Mixed · 43
3.2% through expiry
3.2% priced · v2.0
4 Aug
Volatility · 48
3.2% through expiry
7.7% priced · v2.0
3 Aug
Mixed · 45
3.2% through expiry
7.2% priced · v2.0
31 Jul
Volatility · 50
3.2% through expiry
7.5% priced · v2.0
30 Jul
Bearish · 47
-3.9% through expiry
3.4% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Good
Retained chain62%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Retained chain subset
- Market date
- 13 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 2000 / 3231
- 62% of provider contracts were retained for this snapshot.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $86.8M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-11
1W price+3.2%
Call premium80%
Put premium20%
Notional split
C 80% / P 20%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.11
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
95/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 642 contracts traded, $24.5M estimated gross traded notional, and 28% of visible notional.
$24.5M
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM
calls cluster with 488 contracts traded, $14.5M estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$14.5M
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 319 contracts traded, $6.9M estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$6.9M
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 347 contracts traded, $6.8M estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$6.8M
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 243 contracts traded, $5.3M estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$5.3M
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Quiet tape
Activity is muted versus this ticker's stored history.
Baseline: 12 completed sessions
Volume rank17th
Volume/OI rank0th
IV rank25th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close1185.71
1W+3.2%
RS8.1
Fair value+43.2%
Options pressure-11
Speculation42
Volatility39
Trend fit95
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 4.5% · 12 sessions
25th
90d avg - · 12/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 12/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.50 · 12 sessions
25th
90d avg - · 12/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 12/60 sessions
-
30d avg 1.38 · 12 sessions
58th
90d avg - · 12/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 12/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.22 · 12 sessions
0th
90d avg - · 12/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 12/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
5 Aug 17:30
Mixed
Pressure 8
Move 3.2%
5 Aug 19:00
Mixed
Pressure 3
Move 3.1%
5 Aug 20:04
Mixed
Pressure 4
Move 3.4%
6 Aug 03:36
Mixed
Pressure 16
Move 3.2%
6 Aug 15:40
Mixed
Pressure 13
Move 3.2%
6 Aug 17:20
Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 3.0%
6 Aug 18:40
Mixed
Pressure 13
Move 3.4%
7 Aug 13:04
Bullish
Pressure 32
Move 3.9%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike600.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 10 · OI 333
Strike610.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 7 · OI 165
Strike620.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 22 · OI 453
Strike630.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 4 · OI 83
Strike640.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 3 · OI 200
Strike650.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 371
Strike660.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 0
Puts · V 6 · OI 119
Strike670.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 460
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts278
Avg IV0.36
Put-call0.85
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts206
Avg IV0.34
Put-call1.20
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts203
Avg IV0.33
Put-call3.86
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts169
Avg IV0.34
Put-call2.16
Expiry11 Sep 2026
Contracts136
Avg IV0.33
Put-call1.79
Skew
Call/put IV balance
14 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.28
Put IV0.48
Skew0.20
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.32
Put IV0.37
Skew0.05
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.32
Put IV0.35
Skew0.03
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.32
Put IV0.34
Skew0.02
11 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.31
Put IV0.35
Skew0.04
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractLLY260814C01385000
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike1385.00
Volume-
OI105
IV1.25
ContractLLY260904P00730000
SidePut
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Strike730.00
Volume-
OI75
IV1.20
ContractLLY260904C00975000
SideCall
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Strike975.00
Volume-
OI43
IV0.71
ContractLLY260911P00970000
SidePut
Expiry11 Sep 2026
Strike970.00
Volume-
OI39
IV0.46
ContractLLY260904P00750000
SidePut
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Strike750.00
Volume-
OI37
IV1.15
ContractLLY260911P00910000
SidePut
Expiry11 Sep 2026
Strike910.00
Volume-
OI23
IV0.52
ContractLLY260911C00900000
SideCall
Expiry11 Sep 2026
Strike900.00
Volume-
OI22
IV0.50
ContractLLY260814C01395000
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike1395.00
Volume-
OI16
IV1.30
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.