Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
USGG options intelligence
Leverage Shares 2X Long USAR Daily ETF options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
43
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 2 Aug 2026 19:27 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
USGG currently carries bullish options pressure with a 43/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 41.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.04.
Expected move
41.5%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.04
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.56
Call-side skew
Trend fit
65
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+8.1%
Sharemaestro weekly context
Expected move
41.5%
Put-call volume
0.56
Volume / OI
0.04
Reference IV
1.92
Max pain
10.00
Underlying
5.13
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
194
Research Brief
USGG has a bullish chain read with 43/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 3.00–7.25; The largest call open-interest concentration is 5.00; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 5.00.
Priced range3.00–7.25
Call concentration5.00
Put concentration10.00
Max pain reference10.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 3.00 to 7.25. Max pain at 10.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
3.005.13 ± 2.137.25
Confirmation level
A close beyond 7.25 or below 3.00 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 43/100
Pressure is 35/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure35 × 42%
+14.6
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation7 × 22%
+1.5
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement65 × 26%
+17.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 5.00; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 5.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
2
3.00-41.5%
1
4
4.00-22.0%
0
6
5.00-2.5%
15
5
6.0017.1%
3
0
7.0036.6%
12
6
8.0056.1%
1
1
9.0075.6%
1
30
10.0095.1%
1
2
11.00114.6%
7
1
14.00173.1%
2
2
15.00192.6%
8
2
16.00212.2%
0
0
18.00251.2%
3
7
21.00309.7%
10
0
22.00329.2%
10
0
23.00348.7%
10
0
35.00582.8%
3
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
1.92
21 Aug
21d
1.70
18 Sep
49d
1.64
20 Nov
112d
1.95
19 Feb
203d
Volatility by Strike
Smile incomplete
There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.
5
6
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 194 / 194
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Call-heavy activity with trend alignment
Call concentration and the underlying trend align, but aggregate volume cannot establish whether calls were bought or sold.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Call-heavy activity with trend alignment matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $1962 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+35
1W price+8.1%
Call premium79%
Put premium21%
Notional split
C 79% / P 21%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.04
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
65/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 4 contracts traded, $1088 estimated gross traded notional, and 55% of visible notional.
$1088
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM
calls cluster with 4 contracts traded, $390 estimated gross traded notional, and 20% of visible notional.
$390
Puts · 8-21 days · ATM
puts cluster with 2 contracts traded, $230 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$230
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 3 contracts traded, $189 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$189
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $65 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$65
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close5.13
1W+8.1%
RS-
Fair value-62.7%
Options pressure35
Speculation7
Volatility96
Trend fit65
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 13:19
Volatility
Pressure 26
Move 43.8%
30 Jul 13:08
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 42.7%
31 Jul 12:44
Bullish
Pressure 26
Move 45.4%
2 Aug 18:27
Bullish
Pressure 35
Move 41.5%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike1.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike2.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike3.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike4.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 3 · OI 4
Strike5.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 15
Puts · V 2 · OI 6
Strike6.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike7.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 12
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike8.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 6
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts62
Avg IV1.92
Put-call1.25
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts32
Avg IV1.70
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts52
Avg IV1.64
Put-call-
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts48
Avg IV1.95
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.74
Put IV2.55
Skew0.81
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.60
Put IV2.01
Skew0.42
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.29
Put IV2.02
Skew1.74
19 Feb 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.40
Put IV2.12
Skew1.73
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractUSGG260821C00005000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike5.00
Volume4
OI15
IV1.90
ContractUSGG260821P00004000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike4.00
Volume3
OI4
IV0.59
ContractUSGG261120C00004000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike4.00
Volume3
OI-
IV1.96
ContractUSGG260821P00005000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike5.00
Volume2
OI6
IV2.55
ContractUSGG260918C00007000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike7.00
Volume1
OI-
IV1.60
ContractUSGG270219C00002000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike2.00
Volume1
OI-
IV1.24
ContractUSGG261120C00035000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike35.00
Volume-
OI50
IV1.28
ContractUSGG261120P00012000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike12.00
Volume-
OI42
IV2.12
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.