Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
USGG options intelligence
Leverage Shares 2X Long USAR Daily ETF options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
72
Market data through 16 Sep 2026
Checked 16 Sep 2026 19:09 · partial chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
USGG currently carries volatility options pressure with a 72/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 9.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 2.33.
Expected move
9.3%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
2.33
Current volume is elevated versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.03
Call-side skew
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-22.7%
Sharemaestro weekly context
Expected move
9.3%
Put-call volume
0.03
Volume / OI
2.33
Reference IV
2.73
Max pain
6.00
Underlying
5.07
Nearest expiry
18 Sep 2026
Contracts
84
Research Brief
USGG has a volatility chain read with 72/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 4.60–5.54; The largest call open-interest concentration is 12.00; the largest put concentration is 7.00. The most active strike by current volume is 5.00.
Priced range4.60–5.54
Call concentration12.00
Put concentration7.00
Max pain reference6.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 4.60 to 5.54. Max pain at 6.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
4.605.07 ± 0.475.54
Confirmation level
A close beyond 5.54 or below 4.60 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 72/100
Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation94 × 22%
+20.7
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility93 × 10%
+9.3
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 12.00; the largest put concentration is 7.00. The most active strike by current volume is 5.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
1.00-80.3%
0
1
4.00-21.1%
0
12
5.00-1.4%
26
9
6.0018.3%
47
17
7.0038.1%
25
15
8.0057.8%
18
1
9.0077.5%
8
2
10.0097.2%
7
0
11.00117.0%
11
0
12.00136.7%
301
0
13.00156.4%
1
1
14.00176.1%
0
0
15.00195.9%
0
1
16.00215.6%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$1,369Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak12.00+$461
Negative peak4.00-$75
Nearest balance4.21Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
1.00-80.3%
+$0
2.00-60.6%
+$2
3.00-40.8%
+$5
4.00-21.1%
-$75
5.00-1.4%
+$283
6.0018.3%
+$263
7.0038.1%
+$120
8.0057.8%
+$48
9.0077.5%
+$52
10.0097.2%
+$26
11.00117.0%
+$21
12.00136.7%
+$461
13.00156.4%
+$30
14.00176.1%
-$1
15.00195.9%
+$8
16.00215.6%
+$5
17.00235.3%
-$2
19.00274.8%
+$1
20.00294.5%
+$6
21.00314.2%
+$39
24.00373.4%
-$1
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
2.73
18 Sep
2d
1.48
16 Oct
30d
1.93
20 Nov
65d
1.93
19 Feb
156d
Volatility by Strike
Smile incomplete
There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.
5
6
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 2 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 100% of the time.
Directional follow-through100%
Moves contained by pricing38%
Average expiry move40.8%
20 Aug
Volatility · 54
-9.3% through expiry
38.0% priced · v2.0
19 Aug
Volatility · 53
-9.3% through expiry
29.0% priced · v2.0
18 Aug
Volatility · 57
-9.3% through expiry
26.2% priced · v2.0
5 Aug
Volatility · 56
57.1% through expiry
49.8% priced · v2.0
4 Aug
Volatility · 50
57.1% through expiry
49.3% priced · v2.0
3 Aug
Volatility · 54
57.1% through expiry
44.4% priced · v2.0
31 Jul
Bullish · 43
57.1% through expiry
41.5% priced · v2.0
30 Jul
Bullish · 43
69.8% through expiry
45.4% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes99%
Open interest99%
- Chain status
- Retained chain subset
- Market date
- 16 Sep 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 84 / 84
- 100% of provider contracts were retained for this snapshot.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Volatility expansion bet
The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $72,604 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 0-7 days · atm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+100
1W price-22.7%
Call premium78%
Put premium22%
Notional split
C 78% / P 22%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
2.33
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 0-7 days · ATM
calls cluster with 1501 contracts traded, $30,020 estimated gross traded notional, and 41% of visible notional.
$30,020
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 75 contracts traded, $12,615 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$12,615
Puts · 0-7 days · ITM
puts cluster with 14 contracts traded, $6,160 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$6,160
Puts · 46-90 days · ATM
puts cluster with 35 contracts traded, $5,075 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$5,075
Calls · 0-7 days · OTM
calls cluster with 320 contracts traded, $4,980 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$4,980
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Participation is active enough to treat follow-through risk carefully.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
High anomaly
Current options activity is unusually hot versus this ticker's stored history.
Baseline: 16 completed sessions
Volume rank100th
Volume/OI rank100th
IV rank88th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close5.07
1W-22.7%
RS-
Fair value-59.8%
Options pressure100
Speculation94
Volatility93
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 16/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 16/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 16/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 16/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 16/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 16/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 16/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 16/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 13:19
Volatility
Pressure 26
Move 43.8%
30 Jul 13:08
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 42.7%
31 Jul 12:44
Bullish
Pressure 26
Move 45.4%
3 Aug 11:10
Bullish
Pressure 35
Move 41.5%
4 Aug 12:46
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 44.4%
4 Aug 15:49
Volatility
Pressure 43
Move 49.3%
6 Aug 06:40
Volatility
Pressure 79
Move 49.8%
19 Aug 11:43
Volatility
Pressure 79
Move 26.2%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike1.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike4.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike5.00
Calls · V 1501 · OI 26
Puts · V 2 · OI 12
Strike6.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 47
Puts · V 1 · OI 9
Strike7.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 25
Puts · V 6 · OI 17
Strike8.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 18
Puts · V 1 · OI 15
Strike9.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 8
Puts · V 1 · OI 1
Strike10.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 7
Puts · V 2 · OI 2
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV2.73
Put-call0.01
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts14
Avg IV1.48
Put-call0.71
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts31
Avg IV1.93
Put-call0.47
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts19
Avg IV1.93
Put-call0.10
Skew
Call/put IV balance
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV2.31
Put IV1.38
Skew-0.94
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.38
Put IV1.49
Skew0.11
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.62
Put IV1.70
Skew0.09
19 Feb 2027Call IV premium
Call IV3.65
Put IV1.54
Skew-2.11
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractUSGG261016P00007000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike7.00
Volume-
OI-
IV1.66
ContractUSGG270219P00007000
SidePut
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike7.00
Volume-
OI6
IV1.64
ContractUSGG261016C00006000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike6.00
Volume-
OI2
IV1.38
ContractUSGG261016P00004000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike4.00
Volume-
OI2
IV1.45
ContractUSGG261120C00017000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike17.00
Volume-
OI1
IV3.92
ContractUSGG261016P00011000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike11.00
Volume-
OI1
IV1.80
ContractUSGG261120P00017000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike17.00
Volume-
OI1
IV1.93
ContractUSGG260918C00013000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike13.00
Volume-
OI1
IV7.48
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.