Ticker Options Intelligence

CNTB options intelligence

Connect Biopharma Holdings Ltd options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 54 Market data through 17 Sep 2026 Checked 18 Sep 2026 14:24 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

CNTB currently carries volatility options pressure with a 54/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 63.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 63.7%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.02

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.00

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -37.3%

RS -50.6

Expected move 63.7%
Put-call volume -
Volume / OI 0.02
Reference IV 9.47
Max pain 2.50
Underlying 2.04
Nearest expiry 18 Sep 2026
Contracts 30

Research Brief

CNTB has a volatility chain read with 54/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 0.74–3.34; The largest call open-interest concentration is 5.00; the largest put concentration is 2.50. The most active strike by current volume is 2.50.

Priced range0.74–3.34
Call concentration5.00
Put concentration2.50
Max pain reference2.50
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 18 Sep

Options imply 0.74 to 3.34. Max pain at 2.50 sits inside that range, 22.5% above spot.

Spot Max pain
0.742.04 ± 1.303.34
Confirmation level

A close beyond 3.34 or below 0.74 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 54/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation11 × 22%
+2.4

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score54.0Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 5.00; the largest put concentration is 2.50. The most active strike by current volume is 2.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
760
2.5022.5%
2457
0
5.00145.1%
3427
0
7.50267.6%
2667
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Reported + model-estimated Greeks · 100% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$6,837Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak2.50+$5,034
Negative peak-No negative strike
Nearest balance-Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
2.5022.5%
+$5,034
5.00145.1%
+$1,746
7.50267.6%
+$58
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

6.65× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

9.47 18 Sep 1d
2.97 16 Oct 29d
7.23 20 Nov 64d
1.76 18 Dec 92d
1.42 19 Mar 183d

Volatility by Strike

Smile incomplete

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.

Comparable strike volatility is unavailable.

Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

22 matured · 5 directional

Across 5 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 40% of the time.

Directional follow-through40%
Moves contained by pricing100%
Average expiry move23.7%
17 Sep Volatility · 54 -37.3% through expiry 63.7% priced · v2.0
16 Sep Volatility · 52 -37.3% through expiry 58.8% priced · v2.0
15 Sep Volatility · 53 -37.3% through expiry 72.3% priced · v2.0
11 Sep Volatility · 54 -37.3% through expiry 65.0% priced · v2.0
9 Sep Bullish · 44 -30.4% through expiry 66.6% priced · v2.0
4 Sep Volatility · 48 -30.4% through expiry 80.2% priced · v2.0
3 Sep Volatility · 47 -42.6% through expiry 63.9% priced · v2.0
1 Sep Volatility · 53 -42.6% through expiry 75.3% priced · v2.0
28 Aug Bullish · 43 -42.6% through expiry 51.6% priced · v2.0
24 Aug Volatility · 54 -45.8% through expiry 54.0% priced · v2.0
17 Aug Bullish · 43 -7.5% through expiry 35.3% priced · v2.0
14 Aug Volatility · 46 -7.5% through expiry 36.0% priced · v2.0

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
17 Sep 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
30 / 30
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Volatility expansion bet

92/100
Primary intent Volatility expansion bet

The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $4,235 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 22-45 days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+100
1W price-37.3%
Call premium100%
Put premium0%
Notional split C 100% / P 0% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.02 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM calls cluster with 179 contracts traded, $2,238 estimated gross traded notional, and 53% of visible notional.
$2,238
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 147 contracts traded, $1,988 estimated gross traded notional, and 47% of visible notional.
$1,988
Calls · 0-7 days · OTM calls cluster with 2 contracts traded, $10 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$10

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Normal range

58

Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.

Baseline: 23 completed sessions

Volume rank43th
Volume/OI rank30th
IV rank100th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close1.28
1W-37.3%
RS-50.6
Fair value-43.8%
Options pressure100
Speculation11
Volatility96
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 63.7% history building
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 23/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 23/60 sessions -
IV 9.47 history building
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 23/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 23/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.00 history building
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 23/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 23/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.02 history building
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 23/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 23/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:43 Volatility
Pressure 94
Move 44.4%
30 Jul 11:22 Volatility
Pressure 74
Move 49.2%
31 Jul 10:54 Bullish
Pressure 51
Move 51.1%
2 Aug 22:50 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 44.2%
4 Aug 08:04 Volatility
Pressure 63
Move 45.8%
5 Aug 07:53 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 51.9%
5 Aug 14:19 Volatility
Pressure 90
Move 49.5%
5 Aug 21:06 Volatility
Pressure 93
Move 49.5%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 2 · OI 2457
Puts · V 0 · OI 760
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3427
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 2667
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts6
Avg IV9.47
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts6
Avg IV2.97
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts6
Avg IV7.23
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts6
Avg IV1.76
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts6
Avg IV1.42
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
18 Sep 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV7.12
Put IV-
Skew-
16 Oct 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV2.54
Put IV-
Skew-
20 Nov 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV1.53
Put IV-
Skew-
18 Dec 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV1.76
Put IV-
Skew-
19 Mar 2027Incomplete skew
Call IV1.50
Put IV-
Skew-

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractCNTB261016C00002500
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike2.50
Volume179
OI363
IV2.54
ContractCNTB270319C00005000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike5.00
Volume143
OI111
IV1.50
ContractCNTB270319C00002500
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike2.50
Volume4
OI203
IV2.07
ContractCNTB260918C00002500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike2.50
Volume2
OI2457
IV7.12
ContractCNTB260918C00005000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike5.00
Volume-
OI3427
IV10.00
ContractCNTB260918C00007500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike7.50
Volume-
OI2667
IV10.00
ContractCNTB261218C00005000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike5.00
Volume-
OI2605
IV1.27
ContractCNTB261218C00002500
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike2.50
Volume-
OI2341
IV1.76

Evidence context